[News Page-Taiwan Net]
Taiwan Net March 21st ( Straits Guide reporter Wu Shenglin Wen/Network Map) Taiwan will hold "nine-in-one" elections at the end of this year, including the Democratic Progressive Party, the Kuomintang, and the public The Communist Party of China and other political parties have successively launched candidates for county mayors and county and city councillors. Facing the "one-party dominance" of the DPP, the KMT and the People's Party have a lot of discussions on the "blue-white cooperation" issue, but "only the sound of the stairs is heard, but no one comes down."
KMT Taipei City Councilor Wang Hongweiwas interviewed by a reporter from the Herald yesterday, and made an in-depth analysis of the issue of "Blue-White Cooperation". She said that the possibility of "blue-white cooperation" in the mayoral election of Taipei is very low. Instead of discussing cooperation between counties and cities, it is better to echo Cai Biru, the convener of the election team of the People's Party, to promote the "opposition alliance" in the south. "The chairman of the Kuomintang and the People's Party will "conquer in person", Zhu Lilun will be elected as the mayor of Tainan, , and Ke Wenzhe will be elected as the city of Kaohsiung. Together, they will drive the momentum of the opposition and have a deterrent effect on the DPP." combine"?
It is too difficult for Huang Shanshan to withdraw from the election
On the topic of "blue and white cooperation" in the year-end election, the first thing everyone thinks of is whether there is any way to cooperate in the Taipei mayoral election? It has long been stated that "the responsibility that should be shouldered will not be evaded." On February 9, the Kuomintang passed the nomination method for the 2022 county and mayor elections, giving priority to coordination instead of primary elections, and determined that there will be no primary elections in the Taipei mayoral election. Under such circumstances, Jiang Wanan, who is currently ranked first in support among all walks of life, will represent the Kuomintang in the battle without any suspense.
Whether it is Ke Wenzhe or Taiwan People's Party, the most preferred candidate is Taipei City Vice Mayor Huang Shanshan. Huang Shanshan herself has also shown a great willingness to fight. Recently, she has been yelling at the KMT on the issue of "blue-white cooperation".
Huang Shanshan is a member of the People First Party and has been a Taipei City Councilor for 21 years. In 2019, she was nominated by Ke Wenzhe to take over as the Deputy Mayor of Taipei City. Because of her active fight against the epidemic, Huang Shanshan's visibility has greatly increased, and her support in polls has also risen steadily. She is regarded as Ke Wenzhe's strong successor. The People's Party hopes that she can play the role of "the hen leads the chicks" and drive the momentum of the Taipei City Council election.
As for the DPP, Chen Shizhong, the "Minister of Health and Welfare" of the Taiwan authorities, and Chen Jianren, the former deputy of Tsai Ing-wen, both have the possibility of qualifying. In other words, no matter what, this year's Taipei mayoral election is likely to be a "three-legged governor" situation.
Ke Wenzhe was elected mayor of Taipei in 2014 by combining his own strength and the support of the Democratic Progressive Party. In 2018, although the blue, green, and white were fighting each other, Ke Wenzhe was re-elected with a slight advantage. This year, in the face of Huang Shanshan, who is slightly weaker than Ke Wenzhe, the Kuomintang proposed a "blue and white cooperation", hoping that Huang Shanshan would withdraw from the election, and then the Kuomintang would support the People's Party in the election of parliamentary seats or other county and city mayors.
But so far, not only Huang Shanshan is determined not to retreat, Cai Biru, the convener of the People's Party election team, recently said bluntly that the Kuomintang and the Taiwan People's Party have different supporters and opinions. The goal of the Taiwan People's Party is to continue to govern in Taipei, so There is no possibility of "blue and white combination". "The Kuomintang must send people to fight, but there is no way to make Huang Shanshan withdraw from the election. After all, the People's Party has so many chickens (referring to the parliamentary candidates) that need hens (referring to the mayoral candidates), so the Taipei mayoral election campaign It is very difficult to achieve blue-white cooperation." Wang Hongwei said that the Taipei mayoral election may be the efforts of blue, green and white.
Although Jiang Wanan leads Huang Shanshan and DPP candidates in most polls, the latest poll by Taiwan's "Chinese Communication Management Society" shows that Chen Shizhong leads with 33.6%, Jiang Wanan 30.2%, and Huang Shanshan 23.3%. This naturally aggravated the anxiety of the supporters of the blue camp, and also made the "blue-white cooperation" more concerned.
2 has no complementary resources and no chips to exchange?
The key lies in the lack of trust and internal injustice
Wang Hongwei analyzed and pointed out that the reason why everyone will discuss the issue of "blue-white cooperation" between the Kuomintang and the People's Party has a very realistic background, that is, the current political situation in Taiwan is the "one-party" of the Democratic Progressive Party Dominance” and comprehensive control of administrative resources. If the blue and white do not cooperate, they will only be defeated by the DPP one by one, and it will be even more impossible to check and balance the already very arrogant DPP.
However, the "blue and white cooperation" will touch the interests of all aspects of each other's internal interests. Some members of the Kuomintang bluntly stated that if the Kuomintang wants to discuss the layout of county and mayors with the People's PartyIf White and White cooperate, they will face the dilemma of sacrificing the seats of parliamentarians, and there are no resources to exchange between Blue and White, and there is no bargaining chip to complement each other. Taking Taipei City as an example, the Kuomintang itself is quite tight in terms of nominations for parliamentary seats. If it still wants to "give way" to the People's Party, where is the space? Therefore, he believes that "the combination of blue and white is impossible, and it is a completely false issue."
There are also voices from the Blue Camp who believe that the People's Party has no strength at the grassroots level, and locals are not familiar with the People's Party.
Cai Biru, the convener of the People's Party election campaign group, expressed dissatisfaction on the 19th that it is relatively difficult for different political parties to cooperate in the election. He originally wanted to promote an "opposition alliance" in southern Taiwan. . Does the difficulty of "blue-white cooperation" lie in the fact that "resources are not equal" and chips cannot be exchanged? Wang Hongwei believes that, in fact, the key lies in two points: one is the lack of mutual trust. Taking the Taipei mayoral election as an example, the initial voice within the Kuomintang was to ask Huang Shanshan not to run, hoping to "achieve Jiang Wan'an", but the People's Party believed that this was simply "eating tofu". Second, blue and white also have doubts about cooperation within each other. Some supporters of the Kuomintang believe that in the "legislature", the People's Party mostly chooses to cooperate with the DPP on major policy issues, so how to "blue and white" in the election? Zhang Qilu, a "legislator" of the People's Party, said that "blue-white cooperation" is difficult to achieve, because once Huang Shanshan withdraws from the election and becomes the KMT, the People's Party will become less and less independent as a political party.
3 The goal of the People's Party is to bring down the Kuomintang first?
Thinking to use 3 tricks to achieve "Ke x Pei" or "x Ke Pei"
Because Ke Wenzhe has long stated that he will actively prepare to run for the leadership of the Taiwan region in 2024 after he resigns from the mayor of Taipei. In this regard, his wife also publicly confirmed on Facebook. Therefore, some analysts believe that the more important reason why the "blue-white cooperation" is difficult to achieve is that the goal of the People's Party in 2022 is to first bring down the Kuomintang and serve Ke Wenzhe's 2024 grand strategy.
Li Jinying, the son of Li Jiajin, a former "legislator" of the Kuomintang, recently proposed a complementary strategy between the Kuomintang and Ke Wenzhe, proposing that the Kuomintang give way to Ke Wenzhe in the Kaohsiung mayoral election. Regarding this, Ke Wenzhe smiled in front of the Kuomintang New Taipei mayor Hou Youyi on the 18th and replied, "It's best to be courteous to me in 2024!" He responded in a joking way, but in fact, it can be seen that he has a big strategy for his next step, which is to bring down the KMT in 2022, accumulate bargaining chips, win the co-leadership of the "non-green camp", and strive to compete with the DPP in 2024. Chance.
analyzed that since last year, the Kuomintang lost three votes in the "four major referendums", Taichung"legislator" by-election and the removal of Taipei City's non-party "legislator" Lin Changzuo, and its momentum has fallen to the bottom. It is still struggling However, the Kuomintang is not strong enough, which is the main reason why the "blue and white" voices are so loud.
In terms of seats in the "legislative body", the People's Party is currently the third largest party in Taiwan, but in recent months, a number of polls have shown that the support of the Kuomintang has been caught up or even overtaken by the People's Party. In fact, in order to fully accumulate energy in 2024, the People's Party is already preparing to do a big job in this year's "nine-in-one" election from three aspects.
First of all, at the level of county and mayors, the People's Party plans to fully promote mayoral candidates in Taipei, Taoyuan, Hsinchu, Keelung, and Taichung, which puts pressure on the Kuomintang. Secondly, every important metropolitan area in Taiwan, from the mayor to the seat of the council members, hopes to "promote and fill up the seats", and successively introduce bright newcomers to join the battle. In the end, it tried its best to win over people from the blue camp to join the People's Party. Not only the campaign cadres, but also the candidates also poached corners from the blue camp.
Ke Wenzhe's calculation is to attract light blue and those supporters of the blue camp who are dissatisfied with the Kuomintang as a source of votes as a bargaining chip for negotiations with the Kuomintang in 2024. The Taiwan People's Party assesses that as long as the KMT continues to decline, the 2024 Taiwan region leader election will be a "Ke x Pei" or "X Ke Pei" situation.
However, Wang Hongwei is not optimistic about Ke Wenzhe's strategy. "From the perspective of county and city mayor elections, if there is no 'blue-white cooperation', which county and city can the People's Party win by relying on its own strength? At least the KMT still holds the majority in the seats of mayors and mayors in all counties and cities in Taiwan. In addition, if the People's Party chooses to go to war with the Kuomintang in this year's election, then the supporters of the Blue Camp will swallow this breath in 2024Will you support Ke Wenzhe if you hold the "blue and white combination"? Totally impossible! "
4 South pushes the "Great Alliance of Opposition"?
Personal recruitment of the chairmen of the two parties or a good brand
Aiming at the convener of the People's Party election team, Cai Biru recently proposed the idea of promoting the "Great Alliance of Opposition" in southern Taiwan. Wang Hongwei said in an interview with a reporter from the Herald , if the concept of the "opposition alliance" in the south is only to discuss the two parties in Kaohsiung City to jointly promote a mayoral candidate, and the election of city councilors discusses how to form an alliance and how to give up seats. The party will not care about this kind of "blue-white cooperation".
Wang Hongwei proposed that if the Kuomintang and the People's Party want to show a big picture in the southern region where both are very difficult, the party chairmen of the two parties will directly "drive in person" or a Good card. "Ke Wenzhe fought Kaohsiung City, and Zhu Lilun chose Tainan City. Only by joining forces can we really drive the momentum of the entire opposition, not only in the south but in the whole of Taiwan. It will have an impact and deterrence on the DPP. Only in this way can we really check and balance the people. join the party. "
Wang Hongwei said that Zhu Lilun has his unique advantages in Tainan, and Xie Longjie, who has already stated his candidacy, also said that if Zhu Lilun "reigns in person", he will definitely let the talents and do his best to assist in the election. And Ke Wenzhe is supported by the Kuomintang Kaohsiung's next election, combined with the strength of the People's Party itself, may have unexpected results.
Kaohsiung KMT member Qiu Yuxuan also posted on the 18th that "Ke Wenzhe's candidacy for the mayor of Kaohsiung is a challenge worth fighting for."
However, for Judging from Zhu Lilun’s many statements, the possibility of running for the mayor of Tainan is almost zero. Taiwan’s public opinion believes that Chen Yixin, who has expressed his stand for the election, is the candidate proposed by Zhu Lilun. The ministry held a press conference a few days ago and stated that most members of the People's Party prefer that Ke Wenzhe can run for the leadership of the Taiwan region in 2024, because this can "solve bigger problems" at the level of Taiwan. Cai Biru directly denied it on the 18th, saying that "Ke Wenzhe does not May run for mayor of Kaohsiung".
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