Straight news: U.S.-Taiwan upgrade link, which triggered the People’s Liberation Army to launch large-scale drills around Taiwan Island to countermeasures. However, the U.S. side claimed that the relevant actions endangered stability and were prone to misjudgment. What do you think of the backlash from the US?
Liu Kuangyu, associate research fellow at of the Taiwan Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: Now we see that the United States is trying to intervene in cross-strait relations and the Taiwan issue through its internal political processes, its domestic laws, and its domestic politics , and created the tension in the Taiwan Strait and the tension in Sino-US relations , there is such a political responsibility, and it wants to cover up and shirk such a responsibility. However, we are very clear about this situation, so these practices of the US, including some of its claims, are not credible.
Now that we have seen the newly passed National Defense Authorization Law, the National Defense Authorization Law of in fiscal year 2023, I think there are two characteristics in some of its provisions related to China and Taiwan. First, the first It is very obvious to use this so-called "China threat" as an excuse to try to increase the United States' own military expenditures and strengthen its investment in military capacity building for itself and its allies, the so-called military modernization.
Then we can see that the second aspect is that the United States invests in the modernization of military capabilities of itself and its allies and partners. One of its very important goals is to further and more effectively intervene in the future in the Taiwan issue.
For example, we saw the so-called military aid to Taiwan, so we know that in the past, the United States dominated Taiwan’s military development, including military relations and military links between the United States and Taiwan, and more through military and political relations High-level dialogue is achieved through some actions such as US-Taiwan arms sales, but now we see that it has opened up a new path and switched to a new model, which is more through the so-called military assistance To dominate Taiwan's future, it is necessary to develop this so-called asymmetrical combat power to better meet the strategic requirements of the United States.
The United States is trying to build Taiwan into a so-called "porcupine", by increasing the militarization and weaponization of Taiwan, and then allowing it to have such a stronger ability to fight a so-called "agent" "war" in order to hold mainland China in the Taiwan Strait and achieve a certain degree of strategic consumption for mainland China.
Straight news: The Taiwan authorities officially announced on the 27th the extension of the mandatory military service period, choosing to announce this major policy adjustment when the second term is more than half, what intention does Tsai Ing-wen have with her?
Liu Kuangyu, an associate researcher at the Taiwan Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: Obviously she has a very strong meaning of political manipulation at this time. Let’s first look at the premise of this matter. A very important background is the Democratic Progressive Party In order to conform to a strategic interest of the United States, under the strong pressure of the United States, the authorities have carried out such related initiatives and policies on the island.
Although we can see this matter from the perspective of administrative system on the island, Tsai Ing-wen authorities can decide and announce it through administrative orders, but she has been constantly delaying and brewing , and continued to build momentum, because the voice of such a backlash in the island was very loud, so she did not dare to rashly announce this news before this year's "nine-in-one" election .
Tsai Ing-wen also has some calculations of her own when it comes to operating such a specific matter.
First of all, the first aspect is that we saw that she combined with the extension of military service this time, and correspondingly announced that she would greatly increase the salaries of Taiwanese officers and soldiers. In fact, she was bought with Taiwan taxpayers' money.
The second aspect is to try to transfer the decisions that can be decided by her own administrative authority to Taiwan's legislature, and change it into this so-called review by the legislature. It is to draw the opposition party into such a circle, and to take the blame for such a decision of hers. If the opposition parties cooperated with her and did not obstruct and let the case pass the review in the legislature, then she could pull all the opposition parties to endorse her policies together. Then when the election comes, even if the people have grievances, they will not be afraid. It will not only be spread on the DPP.
Then if the opposition party shows an attitude of resistance and opposition at this time and conducts strong supervision on the DPP, then at this time she can be labeled as politically correct by the so-called "anti-China protection platform" By shifting the responsibility for the failure of Taiwan's defense system reform to the opposition party, it is also showing to the US that it is the opposition party that will obstruct the US will in Taiwan.
So she has such a political calculation that she hopes to make money both inside and outside.
Straight News: Regarding the practice of extending the military service period, do you think the DPP will further lose votes from young people? How will this affect the 2024 election?
Liu Kuangyu, associate researcher at the Taiwan Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: We can see that although the Tsai Ing-wen authorities are constantly building momentum, the green camp of the DPP has also concocted some polls. The so-called Taiwan has a lot of people who want a lot Young people are willing to go to the battlefield, but we can see from the actual public opinion effect of such a policy and the hesitation of the Tsai Ing-wen authorities themselves that the public opinion of Taiwan's youth is actually very obvious. They are anti-war, and they are not willing to go to the battlefield as American cannon fodder.
We have seen that after the news of Tsai Ing-wen’s authorities came out this time, in the public opinion field of the society on the island, for example, some young voters in Taiwan often have such an active social platform. In some social media dominated by the green camp ideology, we have also seen a large number of pessimistic, opposing, and dissatisfied voices, especially those born after 2004 and 2005 who are directly affected by such a policy. In the so-called "18-year-old citizenship" voting before this year, they were equivalent to being rejected, but they have to face the possibility of going to the battlefield in the future to become cannon fodder for the DPP and Americans .
So for them, this is equivalent to an administrative authority in my island denying their right to participate in politics, and at the same time pushing them to the battlefield, so it is a double burden for them a hit.
Then it is clear that this part of the voters, after they have gradually grown up, I think that after such a major impact, even if they have been poisoned by the education of the green camp ideology for a long time, it is obvious that they have a strong interest in the future and the people The perception of joining the party will change a lot.
Then the second aspect is that we can see if such a policy of the Democratic Progressive Party can be turned into a policy after it is put forward now, and can be realized.Effective implementation, and what kind of results will appear after it runs, will have an impact on the DPP's future elections.
Direct news: In your opinion, what impact will the extension of the compulsory military service period by the Taiwan authorities have on cross-strait relations?
Liu Kuangyu, associate researcher at the Taiwan Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: The DPP authorities have taken such a step, so there is no doubt that it is a very negative move for cross-strait relations, and it also sends a very negative signal. On the one hand, from its political connotation, it reflects the Tsai Ing-wen Democratic Progressive Party authorities on the island. She further leans on the strategic interests of the United States and binds Taiwan to the United States' "use Taiwan to control China." "One of the containment and attempts to deplete the chariot of mainland China. Undoubtedly, it is good for cross-strait relations as well as for Sino-US relations, creating more uncertainty and possible political impact in the future.
First of all, it shows the mentality of the Tsai Ing-wen authorities to choose sides. This is also after the "nine-in-one" election, especially when the Tsai Ing-wen authorities are facing pressure from internal and external difficulties. This is a more extreme result of the "anti-China and pro-US" road.
On the other hand, we see that the Tsai Ing-wen authorities are now deciding to mobilize more young people in Taiwan. Originally, these young people in Taiwan can enjoy the life and dividends of peaceful development, including in To live in such a normal atmosphere on both sides of the strait.
But now because the Tsai Ing-wen authorities continue to mess up cross-strait relations, she now has to pay for her previous mistakes step by step. The final result is to mobilize more young people in Taiwan to go to the battlefield. So if such a situation occurs, there is no doubt that first of all we can see that it is a tragedy for the Chinese on both sides of the strait, and it is also very irresponsible for the people on the island, especially the young people.
Such a dangerous situation is that the Tsai Ing-wen authorities have opened a Pandora’s box and opened up a new dangerous road. If young people in Taiwan are mobilized by the Tsai Ing-wen authorities in the future, this matter will be It may evolve into a so-called self-fulfilling prophecy by the Tsai Ing-wen authorities, that is to say, the development of things in the future. Maybe after the Tsai Ing-wen authorities push this matter in this direction, it will be difficult for her to control the final development of this matter. . Just like she previously had to carry out further operations of "resisting China and protecting Taiwan" in order to make up for her destruction of the political foundation of cross-strait relations, it will form a series of spiral effects, which we can improve in the future An early warning to avoid this matter from creating a stronger hedge in the market of public opinion on the island and between the two sides of the strait.
Author丨Liu Kuangyu, associate researcher at the Taiwan Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Editor丨Chen Miaosong, editor-in-chief of Shenzhen Satellite TV News
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