Affected by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike members’ differences of opinion, US dollar index weakened, driving the domestic futures market to stop rising and repair, the spot market operation sentiment has dropped, and the progress of terminal projects is affected by the weather, so the procurement demand is weak , but the macro-favorable policies are gradually implemented, the purchase restrictions in the property market are relaxed, and the market investment enthusiasm is increasing. 分析师详细解析……
钢市影响因素
01
加息进入深水区，委员意见显现分歧
知名美国宏观记者、被称为“新美联储通讯社”的尼克·蒂米劳斯(Nick Timiraos) The latest article, published on Monday, highlights the divisions and struggles the Federal Reserve are facing internally ahead of the last rate hike of the year.
Analyst’s opinion: The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike meeting in December will be held as scheduled. The Fed should not only avoid the revival of inflation caused by insufficient interest rate hikes, but also avoid unnecessary economic pain caused by policies. The hawks and the doves collide fiercely. If the interest rate hike is in line with expectations and capital investment expectations are strengthened, futures will be boosted, which will drive the price of bulk commodities and to rise, which will benefit the rebound of steel prices. On the contrary, to suppress the price increase, it is currently in the wait-and-see stage of shock repair, waiting for the final result.
02
11月贷款规模大幅回升，社融环比翻倍
人民银行发布的数据显示，11月份人民币贷款增加1.21万亿元。 Among them, household loans increased by 262.7 billion yuan, and loans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 883.7 billion yuan in November, both of which were better than those in October. In addition, the increase in the scale of social financing in November was 1.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 1,082.1 billion yuan, or nearly 120%, compared with the 907.9 billion yuan in October.
Analyst’s opinion: With the release of epidemic control, boosting economic development has become the top priority. Although the growth rate of M2 hit a new high in recent years, the divergence between the growth rate of M2 and M1 ( narrow currency ) reflects the current consumption will Insufficient, preventive savings increase, stable growth and policies are still needed in the later stage to continue to strengthen, macro favorable policies may continue to increase the weight to consolidate the economic stabilization and upward trend, which is good for steel prices.
03
29地CPI涨幅收窄，25地重回“1时代”
国家统计局公布了31省份2022年11月居民消费价格指数(CPI)，29省份CPI同比涨幅低于上月。 Among them, the highest increase in Xinjiang was 2.9%, the lowest increase in Shaanxi was 1.0%, and 25 places returned to the "1 era". The national CPI fell by 0.2% month-on-month and rose by 1.6% year-on-year. The year-on-year increase has dropped significantly compared with October, and it has returned to the "1 era" after 7 months.
Analyst’s point of view: Affected by the multi-point distribution of the epidemic, the scope of control in many places has increased, coupled with high-speed closures, poor logistics and transportation, the overall consumption of residents in November has been restricted, and 25 places have returned to the "1 era". Affected by the cold wave, winter is the traditional off-season for consumption, and the overall market is sluggish. At the same time, the same is true for the steel industry. The progress of projects has slowed down, and most of them have entered the final stage. The terminal purchase volume has declined, which is negative for steel prices.
市场价格
01
期货震荡修复
13日螺纹钢主力跌11，收报3937，跌幅0.28%；热卷主力跌15，收报4032，跌幅0.37%；焦煤主力涨17，收报1938，涨幅0.88%；焦炭The main force rose or fell 35 to close at 2940.5, a drop of 1.18%; iron ore fell 1.5 to close at 808.5, a drop of 0.19%.
02
钢厂主稳个调
据中钢网资讯研究院数据显示，今日共25家钢厂调价，其中：
上调5家，占比20%，调价幅度30-300元/吨；
下调7 13 companies accounted for 52% of the total.
Angang From January to February 2023, the price of medium plate will increase by 150, the price of hot rolling will increase by 200, the price of cold rolling will increase by 200, the price of galvanizing will increase by 200, the price of galvanizing will increase by 200, and the price of pickling will increase by 300.
Benxi Iron and Steel In 2023, the price of 1-2 hot-rolled coils will increase by 200, the price of galvanizing will increase by 200, the price of chilling will increase by 200, the price of pickling will increase by 300, and the price of silicon steel will increase by 200.
Shagang will raise scrap steel prices by 80 yuan/ton as a whole from December 13, 2022.
03
现货稳中个别涨跌
中钢网APP数据显示：
建材24个市场中，3个市场涨10-30，3个市场跌10-20，螺纹钢20mmHRB400E平均价格3993元/吨，较上The price rose by 5 yuan/ton in the first trading day;
hot coil 24 markets, 2 markets rose 30-50, 6 markets fell 10-20, the average price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils was 4110 yuan/ton, compared with the previous transaction The daily price rose by 3 yuan/ton; among the 23 markets of
medium and thick plate , 3 markets rose by 10-70, and 2 markets fell by 10-20. Daily rise of 5 yuan / ton.
钢价预测
国务院联防联控机制12月13日(周二)下午3:00举行重点人群健康管理的新闻发布会，引导民众做好疫情防护，尽早走出疫情区，恢复国民经济发展， At the same time, favorable macro policies in the early stage are gradually implemented, iron ore and coke at the cost end are strongly supported, steel production costs and steel factory ex-factory price policies have an enhanced guiding role in the current steel price trend, and at the same time, the country vigorously advocates the recovery of economic development. It is expected to land, expand market investment expectations, and the sentiment of merchants to replenish their warehouses will be driven. is expected to be short-termThe price of domestic steel products may mainly rise steadily.
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