Picture source: National Bureau of Statistics website
29 local CPI growth narrowed
25 localities returned to the "1 era"
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in November 2022, the national CPI fell by 0.2% month-on-month and rose by 1.6% year-on-year. The year-on-year increase has dropped significantly compared with October, and it has returned to the "1 era" after 7 months.
China-Singapore Jingwei combed and found that the CPI1 of 31 provinces rose year-on-year in November, and the provinces whose growth rates were higher or lower than the national level were 11 and 15, respectively, and 12 provinces in October. In terms of growth rate, only Hainan's growth rate was higher than that of October, Tibet was the same as last month, and the year-on-year CPI growth rate of 29 provinces was lower than that of last month. In addition, it is worth noting that 25 places returned to the "1 era", compared with only 8 places last month.
Specifically, 11 provinces, including Xinjiang, Chongqing, Tibet, Qinghai, Hubei, Jiangsu, Yunnan, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Sichuan, and Gansu, have seen growth rates higher than the national level, of which 6 provinces including Xinjiang are in the "2 era"; Ningxia, Hunan, Fujian, Shanxi, and Shanghai rose at the same level as the national level, and 15 provinces, including Zhejiang, Guizhou, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Guangxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Henan, Jilin, Tianjin, Hebei, Beijing, Liaoning, Hainan, and Shaanxi, saw their growth rates lower than the national level.
In addition, in terms of the rate of increase or decrease, Hainan topped the list with an increase of 0.1 percentage points, and Sichuan saw the largest decrease of 1.1 percentage points.
The Chen Xing team of Zhongtai Macro pointed out that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in November continued to fall sharply, falling below 2%. On the one hand, it was because the base was still high. It is a super-seasonal drop in food chain growth rate.
How will CPI go in the future?
The epidemic prevention policy is optimized, and the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival are approaching. Institutions generally expect that inflation will be safe in the short term.
Chen Xing's team pointed out that since December, the price of pigs has accelerated and the price of eggs has turned down. Perhaps due to the cold wave, the price of vegetables has turned from a drop to an increase, and the price of fresh fruits has increased. And in the first quarter of next year, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI may remain at a high level of 2% and above, but the pressure for the whole year of next year will not be great.
Northeast Securities’ macro report analyzed that the year-on-year CPI bottomed out in November and will gradually rise in the future, but the height of the rise is relatively limited, and the year-on-year CPI may return to the 2% level in December. In the short term, there is no sign of a rapid rise in CPI.
The Guosheng macro bear garden team also pointed out that in the first week of December, the prices of fruits and vegetables rose month-on-month, and seasonal effects were superimposed. It is expected that the CPI food sub-item in December may rise slightly; non-food items may remain flat, and the decline in service prices may narrow. On the whole, the CPI in December is likely to rise slightly month-on-month, and may rebound year-on-year. Looking at the trend, the CPI center may rise slightly in 2023, with a rhythm that goes up and down, and there may be a risk of a phased rise at the beginning of the year (the high point may break through 3%). The
Southwest Securities report analyzed that the continued release of pork supply may bring some downward pressure on the CPI, but the supply of vegetables will decrease after the weather turns cold, and the demand for pickled meat in winter will increase. Food prices may rebound, and epidemic prevention measures will be optimized. It may be stable and tend to rise, and the superimposed base is lower. It is expected that the CPI will rise moderately in December.
Regarding the trend of core CPI next year, Huachuang Macro Zhang Yu's team made predictions from three scenarios: upward scenario, benchmark scenario, and downward scenario. Among them, in the downside scenario, the core inflation is basically not worrying, below 2% for the whole year; It broke 2% in the quarter, 2.5% in the third quarter, and 3% in the fourth quarter.
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