China Net Finance, December 10th (Reporter Li Chunhui) Yesterday (9th) the National Bureau of Statistics announced the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) data for November. percentage points, returning to the "1" range. This is already two consecutive months of rapid decline in the year-on-year increase in CPI.
(Source: National Bureau of Statistics website)
"In addition to the increase in the base in the same period last year, the year-on-year increase in CPI in November fell mainly due to the fact that the current pork price has entered the stage of peaking and falling. The decline in vegetable prices is also an important reason." Dongfang Jincheng chief macro analyst Wang Qing said.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that food prices rose by 3.7% year-on-year in November, a drop of 3.3 percentage points from the previous month. Among foodstuffs, the price of pork rose by 34.4%, a drop of 17.4 percentage points from the previous month. The price of fresh vegetables dropped by 21.2%, and the rate of decline expanded by 13.1 percentage points from the previous month.
"In the case of a large increase in pork prices in the early stage, the demand has weakened due to the impact of the epidemic and the weather. In addition, the central reserve pork supply work continues, which has led to a reversal of expectations. It is sunny and warm, and the abundant supply has led to a drop in vegetable prices." Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank , said.
At the same time, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices in November, which can better reflect the overall price level, continued to be at a low level: it rose by 0.6% year-on-year, which was the same as the previous month.
"(The decline in core CPI) shows that the current overall price situation is stable. This is in stark contrast to the high inflation in Europe and the United States, and will continue to provide important support for the domestic macro policy 'self-oriented'." Wang Qing said.
Since the beginning of this year, in the face of high inflationary pressure from the external environment, my country has maintained a relatively moderate inflation level through a series of policy efforts.
"In the second half of the year, inflation generally presents the characteristics of 'two highs and two lows'." Wen Bin said, "two highs" refers to high external inflation, high food and energy inflation, "two lows" refers to low core inflation, industry Commodity inflation continues to decline, indicating that the economy and inflation are facing certain structural contradictions.
The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 6 to analyze and study economic work in 2023. The meeting proposed to "focus on stabilizing growth, employment, and prices" and "promote economic operation and overall improvement". On December 7, the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council issued the "New Ten Measures" for epidemic prevention and control, which put forward further optimization requirements for the delineation and management of risk areas, nucleic acid testing, and isolation methods to minimize the impact of the epidemic on impact on economic and social development. The
Politburo meeting sent an important signal of steady growth, and the epidemic prevention and control policy has been further optimized. Analysts believe that next year, fiscal policy and monetary policy will increase efforts and coordinate cooperation in the direction of stable growth. The drop in CPI growth has created favorable conditions for the implementation of these policies.
"Considering the overall economic situation and the balance between supply and demand in the commodity and service markets, in 2023, under the trend of cooling global inflation, the potential inflation risk brought by the rebound of domestic consumption is not large. This means that monetary and fiscal policies are in place around the end of the year. There is room for moderate efforts in the direction of steady growth." Wang Qing said.
Wen Bin said that looking forward to 2023, my country's inflation will remain moderate. With the relaxation of epidemic prevention and control and the recovery of demand, the inflation center is likely to increase slightly. The main characteristics are: first, the pressure of externally imported inflation is eased; second, the prevention and control of the epidemic is optimized, and the overall demand of the society picks up, and the core inflation will gradually return to the mean from the current ultra-low range; third, the food and energy security margin is high, and non-core inflation remains stable. Moderate; Fourth, there is still a certain deflationary pressure on the prices of industrial products.
Source: China Net Finance
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