Everyone, welcome to Logic.
Over the past six months and a year, inflation in countries around the world has intensified, and the inflation in the United States has exceeded 8% so far, so that the Federal Reserve keeps raising interest rates , adding 375 basis points in half a year. How exaggerated is this figure? At the beginning of this year, the benchmark interest rate of the US federal government was about 0%, and now it is 4%. It has rapidly expanded from 0 interest rate to a high interest rate.
Under the influence of strong inflation in the United States, the inflation in many countries is shocking. For example, the inflation of established powers such as Britain and Germany can reach 10%, the inflation of emerging European countries such as Baltic countries can reach 20%, and the inflation of Turkey is exaggerated to 70%~80%. Can you imagine what kind of state the prices of these countries have risen to?
So since the beginning of this year, many people have worried about what will happen to the price level in our country. Will our prices continue to soar due to the imported inflation in the United States? The recently released CPI index for October made us feel a little relieved. In October, my country's CPI index was 2.1%, which was lower than the previous value and lower than expected. We have told you in the past that inflation is not a tiger, and it does not mean that inflation in a country is necessarily a bad thing.
Inflation cannot be absent, and inflation cannot be too high. Last year, the U.S. Treasury Department said that it hopes to control the CPI index in the United States at around 2% to 3%, which is good for the growth of the U.S. national economy. In the past two years, my country's CPI index has been around 1%~2%, so relatively speaking, our prices have not risen to the sky like the United States. Especially recently, there are actually several prices that have been quite high. For example, the price of pork. At this time last year, we said that a catty of high-quality pork could be bought for seven or eight yuan. Now it costs more than 20 yuan. There is no way. Pork has different years. When the price of pork is low, there will be fewer people who raise pigs. In the future, the supply of pork will be less, and the price of pork will rise. After that, there will be more people who raise pigs, and the supply will increase, and the price of pork will fall again. Come down, it just so happens that we are now in a peak period of pork.
On the other hand, Two or three months ago, international oil prices kept falling. However, starting from November 1, OPEC countries announced a reduction of 2 million barrels of oil per day, which made international oil prices soar again. Two days ago, the price of refined oil in my country was adjusted again, and the No. 95 gasoline in many cities returned to the No. 9 era. The price of pork has risen, and the price of gasoline has risen, which makes many people worry about whether our inflation will go up? Because pork is the main source of protein intake for ordinary people in our country, and gasoline is the blood of the entire industry and logistics industry.
However, although the prices of these two items are rising, our CPI index is still running at a low level. Why? There are two reasons, On the one hand, during autumn and winter, a large number of autumn vegetables and fruits are on the market across the country, and the prices of fresh vegetables and fruits have dropped a little compared to the previous period. Not all prices are rising along with gasoline and pork. So our CPI index can drop a bit.
And there is a second factor that is more critical, that is, we are still in a period of economic weakness as a whole. The three-year epidemic has dealt a huge blow to many industries, especially the repeated outbreaks of the epidemic in many cities this year, which made everyone feel a little discouraged about the future of the economy. Everyone felt that the future economy was very uncertain. Really, there are people around us who have been laid off and their salaries have been cut. In such a state of sharply reduced income, we naturally have to be optimistic about our wallets, so the consumption of the whole society is in a very weak state. Of course, houses are not easy to sell, cars are not easy to sell, we don’t go to school for training, we can’t travel to other places, and a large number of restaurants have closed down, so many peopleare reducing their consumption.
Therefore, there is another figure that is very intriguing, that is, in the past six months, the growth rate of my country's resident deposits has been several times faster than that of previous years. But of course, there are two possibilities for the increase of residents' deposits. If it is during the economic upswing period, each of us can make a lot of money, and many industries are booming to catch up with the trend. In this state, when everyone has money, we will spend part of it and save part of it. After all, we are a nation that likes to save. In this case, we will residents' savings increase rapidly.
Of course, there is another situation that not every company is booming right now. It’s not that there are a lot of outlets waiting for me, but that we have great uncertainty about the future economy, and we have to prepare for the future economic winter. cotton coat. So everyone consciously reduced their consumption and converted it into savings. This has led to a substantial increase in our residents' savings in recent times.
Of course, more and more people are afraid to spend money, more and more people save money or have no money to spend at all, then the natural consumption power will weaken, prices will not rise, and the CPI index can only be at Hovering low. Especially these two days happened to be Double 11. We have talked with you in previous programs. The popularity of Double 11 has been decreasing for more than ten years. I haven’t heard people around me talk about Double 11 in the past few days. 11. What am I going to buy? I’m going to put this item in the shopping cart as soon as possible. What kind of special gameplay will this year’s Double 11 have?
This is of course because everyone has become more and more familiar with online shopping over the years, everyone has become more and more tired, and various live sales have taken up a lot of our time and a lot of money . But another very important reason is that everyone does not have a lot of money, and everyone does not want to invest limited funds in crazy online shopping, so Double 11 is so weak. It is conceivable that we will spend a lot of money on it in the future. Difficult to cheer up.
So it is true that different countries have different worries. In the United States, he is worried that prices will continue to rise, inflation will intensify , and ordinary people will spend more money to maintain their current lives. On the other hand, our CPI index is well controlled, and the price does not rise too much, but we are worried that because the whole people are afraid to spend money, will there be a vicious circle in the future? Because you don’t spend money and I don’t spend money, the company can’t make money, the employees can’t make money, and everyone is even less willing to spend money.
So we have two hopes. First, we hope that the epidemic will end soon and we can return to normal life as soon as possible. And the second is to hope that local governments at all levels can come up with effective ways to stimulate consumption, so that everyone dares to spend money and has money to spend at the same time. Because the CPI index is too high, of course it is not good, but it is not good if it is too low for a long time!
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