文︱Zhang Youhua
Ke Wenzhe will return to National Taiwan University to teach on December 25th. But there is a very important issue on December 10th, which is the re-election of the chairman of the People's Party. The re-election of the chairman of the People's Party is very interesting. I didn't expect that there was only one person running for the same quota. This person's name is Ke Wenzhe, which is "Abei" . Ke Wenze accumulated his political energy during his tenure as mayor of Taipei, but after experiencing the local "nine-in-one" elections in 2022, it can be seen that the People's Party won by relying on the KMT 's "success does not have to be with me" Hsinchu has a place, that is Gao Hongan's Hsinchu mayor. is in 6 capitals and 16 counties, and she won Hsinchu City with a relatively small population. Looking back at
this time, the People's Party has nominated this time, but there are only 36 county and city councilors in Taiwan. There are problems with the nomination policy of "Abei" and the nominees. Of course, as a small party, it is very difficult to just start, but everyone ignores whether there is room for the development of a third force in Taiwan?
From the perspective of the New Party and the People First Party, these two parties had a very high number of seats at the beginning, and they both surpassed Ke Wenzhe. Needless to say, the People First Party can get 17.5 votes in Taiwan, and the New Party probably got 15. Then Ke Wenzhe How much did you get? Ke Wenzhe can say that he has the most votes in Taiwan, at most no more than 13. From this point, we can also understand that the popularity of the People's Party is not as good as that of the New Party and the People First Party. Of course, he split from the Kuomintang, so His base is still light blue or dark blue, but Ke Wenzhe's ticket source is different from the People First Party and the New Party. Ke Wenzhe's ticket source is all young voters. These are political uncertainties.
The so-called political uncertainty, they vote when they are happy, and they will not vote when they are not happy.
Although Ke Wenzhe has received the ticket for the 2024 "General Election", because his party support exceeds 5%, we can see that Ke Wenzhe's future dilemma is that even though Ke Wenzhe has won the ticket for the 2024 "General Election", but He is rooted in the local area, and the grassroots forces are insufficient. Most of them are so-called free tickets , or what we call air tickets in Taiwan. He has no way to enter the war efficiently. Under the circumstances, can Ke Wenzhe's political power threaten the Kuomintang or the DPP in 2024?
From the perspective of the 2022 election, he cannot be threatened. In other words, the People's Party, like the New Party and the People First Party, will fall into the predicament of a "one-man party". The party chairman of the People First Party is the eternal James Soong, while the permanent party chairman of the New Party is Yu Muming . Almost all the votes of the People's Party this time are in the metropolitan area. Is there any way for him to take root in the rural areas at the grassroots level? Therefore, the same election as the chairman of the People's Party shows one thing. This People's Party belongs to Ke Wenzhe himself.
Ke Wenzhe was able to get a very high volume of voice when he was the mayor of Taipei City, but once he handed over the mayor of Taipei and returned to the 18th floor "hell", the emergency center of National Taiwan University, and did not hold an administrative position, can his voice volume continue? This depends on whether Gao Hong’an can speak out frequently on behalf of the People’s Party, so we look at the overall situation, whether Ke Wenzhe’s political path will develop in the future, as long as you vote in 2024, you can see whether the People’s Party has developed potential.
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