According to the refined oil price adjustment schedule, at 24:00 on December 4 (Wednesday), domestic refined oil retail price limits will usher in a new round of adjustment time points. Since the current pricing cycle of domestic refined oil products, affected by the sharp fluctu

According to the refined oil price adjustment schedule, at 24:00 on December 4 (Wednesday), domestic refined oil retail price limits will usher in a new round of adjustment time points.

Since the current pricing cycle of domestic refined oil products, affected by the sharp fluctuations in international crude oil prices, the reference crude oil change rate has experienced a process of turning from negative to positive and then gradually falling back. The latest forecast data on international crude oil price changes tracked by institutions show that the current round of refined oil retail price limit adjustments has not yet reached the price adjustment red line of 50 yuan/ton, so this round of refined oil retail price limits may once again be stranded.

This round of refined oil retail price limit adjustment may face stranding

Since the current round of domestic refined oil pricing cycle, international crude oil prices have generally shown a range-bound trend, and the domestic reference crude oil change rate has gradually declined after turning from negative to positive.

Zhuochuang Information refined oil analyst Dai Tiandong said that although the escalation of geopolitical conflicts has provided support to international crude oil prices, the market is still worried about increased supply, so international crude oil prices have generally shown range fluctuations. The

Zhuochuang Information data model calculation shows that as of the close of December 2, which is the 9th working day of the current pricing cycle of domestic refined oil products, the reference crude oil change rate is 0.15%. Calculated according to the current range, the corresponding gasoline and diesel prices will increase The range is 5 yuan/ton, which does not exceed the price adjustment red line of 50 yuan/ton. Therefore, the retail price limit adjustment of refined oil at 24:00 on December 4 may face stranding. This will also be the sixth time this year that it has been stranded.

The data predicted by Longzhong Information also shows that this round of refined oil price limit adjustment is likely to be shelved.

Dai Tiandong said that if the current round of refined oil retail price adjustment is shelved, it means that in the next half month (from 24:00 on December 4 to 24:00 on December 18), the fuel cost of residents driving will remain the same. constant.

As of now, since 2024, domestic refined oil retail price limits have gone through 23 rounds of adjustments, with 9 increases, 9 decreases and 5 freezes. After the gains and losses offset each other, domestic gasoline and diesel prices per ton fell by 130 yuan/ton and 125 yuan/ton respectively compared with the end of last year.

Data source: National Development and Reform Commission website

If this round of refined oil price adjustment policies are implemented, the price adjustment of refined oil products in 2024 will show a pattern of "nine increases, nine decreases, and six stranded".

The wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel have both increased. In terms of wholesale, Longzhong Information data shows that as of December 2, the average domestic 92# gasoline market price was 7,618 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.48% from the previous price adjustment cycle; 0# The average diesel market price is 6,961 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.21% from the previous price adjustment cycle, showing a trend of rising gasoline and diesel prices.

Longzhong Information refined oil analyst Liu Wenjie analyzed that during the current pricing cycle of domestic refined oil, domestic upstream inventory levels have remained low, and some spot resources are still insufficient. Sales units are not very willing to take the initiative to lower prices, and they are temporarily raising prices to ensure profits. Lord. Taking Shandong Direfining as an example, the gasoline production and sales rate during the cycle was 93%, an increase of 4 percentage points from the previous cycle. Low temperatures are good for driving, and the rigid demand for gasoline is expected to improve, and the production and sales rate continues to rise. The production and sales rate of diesel is 98%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous cycle. The transaction situation is relatively better than that of gasoline. However, the seasonal demand characteristics of diesel will increase in the future, and the pattern of "strong gasoline and weak diesel" may still dominate the market.

In terms of crude oil, the market is currently waiting for the final results of the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday. Yang An, an analyst at Haitong Futures Energy R&D Center, said that the recent weak and disorderly fluctuations in international crude oil prices can be seen that the market is waiting for the boots to fall, and high-frequency indicators have weakened again, indicating that the oil market is still in a sluggish state. Judging from the current market atmosphere, extending the OPEC+ oil production reduction policy for one quarter has gradually become the only option. If this expectation is fulfilled, crude oil prices will most likely continue to fluctuate; if not as expected, crude oil prices will face the risk of breaking down.

Liu Wenjie believes that the news of OPEC + extending oil production cuts will bring a positive boost to the crude oil market and maintain a tight supply situation. In addition, the instability of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has not been completely eliminated. It is expected that the next round of domestic refined oil retail price limit increases will be more likely, and the price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on December 18.

(Source: China Securities Journal)

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