Refined oil market: It is reported that according to the price adjustment of refined oil, at 24:00 this Thursday night, the oil price will be adjusted for the 16th time this year. According to market feedback analysis, this round of pricing cycle is 10 working days, and the first 8 tasks have been completed. On the day, the change rate of crude oil was -5.62%, and the price of gasoline and diesel fell by 260 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to a price increase of 92/95 gasoline and a drop of 0.2~0.24 yuan. This round of oil price decline may hit a high point during the year!
This time, oil prices have fallen sharply, mainly due to the four consecutive weeks of decline in crude oil prices. In particular, since last Thursday, due to the upset of the US manufacturing PMI data, non-farm employment data fell short of expectations, and the unemployment rate far exceeded expectations to 4.3%. The market is worried about the U.S. economic recession, international crude oil consumption is under pressure, and prices have shown a significant downward trend. In just a few days, WTI crude oil fell nearly 6.8%, and U.S. oil quotations bottomed out at $72.94/barrel, with prices hitting record highs in the past seven months. new low!
Since domestic oil prices are based on crude oil from the three places, crude oil prices have fallen deeply, which supports the current pricing cycle and the trend of negative change rate of domestic crude oil! However, after the short-term sharp drop in international oil prices, market sentiment became slightly divergent. On August 6, international oil prices showed a volatile trend, and the bottom support of the market strengthened slightly!
On the one hand, the market may retaliate against Iran against Israel, which may affect international crude oil transportation channels and intensify the risk of crude oil supply interruption;
On the other hand, as the US service industry PMI data is higher than expected, the Federal Reserve’s dovish speech and Institutions believe that the U.S. economic recession may be too early, which alleviates a certain panic in the market and provides certain support for international oil prices!
Therefore, the crude oil market is in a periodic long-short game, with bullish and bearish sentiments coexisting in the market. If the center of gravity of international oil prices falls further, there are only 2 working days left in this pricing cycle. On August 8, domestic gasoline and diesel prices may fall. It is certain that the decline in oil prices still has the basis to expand!
Attachment: The price of No. 92/95 gasoline at gas stations across the country before the next round of oil price adjustment on August 7!
At the same time, in the domestic pig market, , pig prices have recently started to increase, and pig prices have repeatedly hit new highs. According to the data, on August 7, 2024, the price of foreign three-yuan pigs rose to 20.6 yuan/kg. It increased by 0.18 yuan from yesterday. In the north and south markets, pig prices continued to rise for the most part. The price quoted in Guangdong in southern China rose to 22.6 yuan/kg. The price difference between the north and south pig prices widened, and the market showed an unexpected rise!
Personally, I believe that the support for rising pig prices is roughly as follows:
On the one hand, this month, the supply level of suitable pigs is low. Affected by the reduction of production capacity in the early stage, retail investors and group pig companies have fewer plans for slaughter, and the pig supply pattern is slightly different. Tight;
On the other hand, due to the increase in pig prices in the sales area market, the standard fertilizer price difference has expanded to 0.6~0.9 yuan/kg, and the cost-effectiveness of pig breeding has increased sharply. After all, the cost of pig breeding has dropped, and the prices of corn and soybean meal have fallen. The sentiment of end-to-end reduction in volume and reluctance to sell has become stronger, and the phenomenon of gaining weight by holding on to the rails has increased!
Therefore, supported by the periodic tight supply, the market's mentality of waiting for price has strengthened. Domestic pig prices have hit peaks this year, with the focus of pig prices rising to 20.6 yuan/kg!
However, I personally believe that the price of pigs may "change drastically overnight" and the market sentiment may take a turn for the worse. In particular, the price of live pigs is at a high point, the market capacity is insufficient, the demand for buying and selling white strips is weak, and it is more difficult to sell high-priced white strips. , Butchery companies' acceptance of high-priced pig sources has become weaker.On the breeding side, retail investors, groups, and the secondary fattening of pigs that have been replenished in the early stage may increase the mentality of buying and selling at high prices in stages. The market may have a "rush" operation to sell the pigs. The tight supply situation may improve, and the market sentiment There may be a change!
Therefore, under the long-short game, the continuous rise in pig prices may not have enough stamina. In the next 1 to 2 days, pig prices are likely to rise and fall. Focus on the changes in the rhythm of the group's pig companies!
