文｜Mouyu
" Catch a Baby " had over 150 million views on its first day.
It is hard to imagine that the words "Dianying" and "150 million" could one day be arranged together, but it seems understandable when the starring roles are "Shen Teng" and "Ma Li".
Mooyu has previously analyzed the domestic theater box office market. After experiencing the blockbuster era and the IP era, when there is no recognized indicator of film quality as a reference, the influence of personal IP has become a key market indicator .
The most influential among them is undoubtedly the man with the special marketing word "Han Teng Liang", Shen Teng.
After "Catch a Baby" started screening, "Silence", which had a total box office of over 700 million in 10 days of release, was immediately put on the brakes, and the box office underperformed the day's forecast for the first time. As of 15:00-16:00 on July 15, the box office of "Catch a Baby" has reached 419 million. It is expected that the movie box office will reach about 500 million before it is released on July 16.
If you convert it, is equivalent to "Catch a Baby". Even before it was officially released, it had already achieved the total box office results of another summer hit "There's a Canteen in the Clouds". The miracle of
has a lot to do with theater support. On the first day of "Catch a Baby", the theater chain gave this movie, which is still being screened, higher than the film schedule of all theater chain movies, reaching 30% . This distribution method is naturally unfair to other films, especially "Legend", which Boehner tried to save, and there was no hope of repaying the money.
But for theaters, this is also a helpless move. The overall box office in 2024 is ups and downs, with both the Spring Festival and Qingming festivals being the highest in film history, and the total box office performance in the first half of the year being lower than that of 2016, and in June, which is about to enter the summer season, the theater market is even more sluggish to the point where the results for that month It is only higher than 2021 and 2022 during the epidemic.
The theater chain in 2024 will be in chaos, so we need the stability of "Catch a Baby".
refers to the box office history of summer theaters in 2022 and 2023.
According to Beacon Professional Edition data, the total box office for the 2022 summer season is 9.136 billion. Among them, " Walk Alone on the Moon " and " Life Events " are the mainstays. The box office results of these two movies account for more than 50% of the total box office results. ;
The total box office in the 2023 summer season is 20.63 billion, which benefited from multi-core competition. The box office results of " All-or-Nothing ", " The Disappeared ", "Fengshen Part 1", "The Octagonal Cage" and "Chang'an Thirty Thousand Miles" accounted for 17.1%/17.1% and 12% of the total box office respectively. , 10.7%, 8.7%.
It is not difficult to see from the box office distribution that the box office results of core films have become the main support for the total summer box office report card, forming the structure of "with multiple heads far exceeding expectations, and the waist stabilizing the overall situation" ,
In addition , judging from the growth of the summer box office in the past two years, during their peak box office period, most of them had the experience of "being ignited by the first movie to ignite the market's enthusiasm for movie watching" (2022 "Life Events", 2023 "The Disappearance" she"). Under the two factors of
, the appearance of "Catch a Baby" has become particularly important to the overall performance of this summer's film. It can be said that it has seized the life of the summer film. But the key is, how long can "Catch a Baby" be popular?
According to discussions between Mouyujun and many practitioners in the industry, we tend to believe that "Catch a Baby" will most likely not be accompanied by emerging topics like last year's summer hits "The Lost Girl" or "All or Nothing". Run the entire summer file . However, it will usher in even more amazing box office results in the short term after its official launch, and even surpass the first two in the final total box office.
This conclusion is mainly due to the quality and topicality of the movie so far.
First of all, in addition to the "Shen Ma Fusion" and the return of directors Yan Fei and Peng Damo, judging from the audience's feedback after the screening, "Catch a Baby" is also the most popular drama in after "Charlotte's Trouble" A good film. On the Douban score of , "Catch a Baby" scored 7.5, second only to "Charlotte" with a score of 7.9.
's high reputation will effectively drive the audience attendance rate of "Catch a Baby".Film critic Taoyun believes that in the current economic downturn, the market will have higher demand for comedy movies.
"Although Happy Twist was criticized for " Super Family " last year, the audience has always had expectations for Happy Twist. The current high reputation of "Catch Doll" will enable these fans to quickly enter the show."
This is another reason why it is difficult for "Catch a Baby" to be a summer release. is different from last year's realistic movies. It needs to constantly use topics to stimulate the audience to go to the theater to find out what is. After confirming the high reputation of Happy Twist's movie, most interested viewers will finish watching the movie in the first two weeks. .
At the same time, the marketing characteristics of "Catch a Baby" are also worth noting. Compared with the hot box office, the film's marketing seems surprisingly quiet, with only 9 pieces of information released on the entire network. Before the screening begins, spoilers for the core content of the film are extremely limited.
Mouyujun believes that on the one hand, the project team has high confidence in the quality of the film itself, but on the other hand, it is also because "Catch a Baby" is still in the screening stage and has occupied a large number of theaters. Next, it is not appropriate to make a big show of things and provoke public anger.
At present, movies do not actively participate in or guide hot search topics on social platforms such as Weibo. Most of the current hot searches about movies come from third-party interpretations of the movie , such as #汉汉talk电影片狠拍#, #One sentence proves I’ve seen Catch the Baby# and so on. It is expected that after the film is released on July 16, it will enter the official promotion stage.
According to Muyu Jun’s Saturday movie viewing experience, the film "Catch Me" is difficult to conceptualize and refine. Whether it is compared to "The Truman Show" or "Starting Line", it will lead to potential viewers' understanding of the film's content. misunderstanding, resulting in counterproductive propaganda.
However, the theme of the movie "a rich man pretends to be poor to his son for the sake of education" still has strong story tension and can effectively attract the audience. In addition, from the end of July to August, domestic college entrance examination admission notices will be issued one after another, which will form a very topical topic and provide a timely continuation of the popularity of the film after its popularity in the first two weeks, making it even more popular. Many non-core audiences are attracted to theaters to watch movies. After
enters mid-August, the box office market will need to consider the issue of succession. At present, it seems that Chen Sicheng is likely to take on the important task of rescuing the market in August. Like the previous analysis by Muyu, Chen Sicheng is different from Shen Teng's audience base, and the market's trust comes more from his past resume and ability to handle commercial films. At present, his new film " decrypted " has aroused the curiosity of the market with the topic of Liu Haoran's bald head.
Another work that may produce unexpected surprises is Xu Zheng's new film " Retrograde Life ". The popularity of "Catch Baby" has already demonstrated the current market expectations for comedy movies. Whether Xu Zheng, an old-school top comedian, can accurately grasp the preferences of contemporary audiences has become the key to the box office success of "Retrograde Life".
In fact, according to Xu Zheng's resume, the series "People on the Road" represented by him was once the golden signature of domestic comedy. His new work has the potential to become another comedy hit this summer. However, with Feng Xiaogang's "If You Are the One 3" dying suddenly, the final result of "Retrograde Life" is still in a dilemma.
As for Happy Twist, the success of "Catching Dolls" is already destined. From a long-term development perspective, an even bigger surprise is that Kaixin Mahua seems to be intentionally creating a "Xihong City Universe" movie concept. In addition to this film, the director has brought in a large number of supporting actors and familiar faces who have participated in the two films "The Richest Man in Xihong City" and "Charlotte Trouble". There are also many tributes in the plot, which makes the audience A knowing smile. From the flash of "Dongmei Bridge" to the movie, Shen Teng needs to take his children to pick up plastic bottles because he is "poor" and finds a place with the most plastic bottles - Wang Duo in "The Richest Man in Xihong City" He was at the scene where Yu’s Daxiang team lost a game, and he also patted a player with “Wang D.y” written on his back and an afro.Finally, in terms of the names of the heroines, Dongmei from "Charlotte's Sorrow", Xia Zhu from "The Richest Man in Xihong City", and Chunlan from "Catch a Baby" also formed a pattern. The new universe concept will play a huge role in increasing the box office of Happy Twist's subsequent movies. We are also looking forward to their new film "Qiu Ju's Lawsuit" (Don't Take It Seriously).
