Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report stating that with the recent intensive release of films, the visibility of the schedule is increasing day by day. According to Yi En, from January to May 2024, the cumulative box office including service fees has reached 21.65 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.3% compared with the same period in 2023. It is recommended to pay attention to the potential of box office flexibility driven by key summer content. In the short term, the summer schedule capacity and contribution to the annual box office are relatively high. It is recommended to pay attention to the trading opportunities brought about by single-film box office exceeding expectations. In the medium to long term, the trend of industry content being king and brand being king will not change. We recommend Wanda Film (002739.sz), Enlight Media (300251.sz), Maoyan Entertainment (01896), and Alibaba Pictures (01060); follow Bona Picture Industry (001330.sz) and Hengdian Film and Television (603103.sh).
CICC’s main views are as follows:
Box office split tracking: The schedule effect still continues, and movie viewing demand has yet to be released
Since 2023, key schedules such as the Spring Festival and summer vacations have had a significant boost to the box office, among which the 2023 Spring Festival and summer vacations have The box office of the Spring Festival stalls (excluding the Dragon Boat Festival stalls) reached 114.6% and 116.0% of the corresponding slots in 2019 respectively; since 2024, the slot effect has continued. For example, the box office of the Spring Festival stalls has recovered to 116.3% of that in 2019, and the box office of the New Year's Day and Tomb Sweeping Day stalls has also continued. They recovered to 153.1% and 120.7% respectively in 2019; while the non-scheduled first quarter of 2024 only recovered to 68.1% of 2019. CICC believes that the supply of films during major periods is sufficient, with diversified themes and themes, and top films have strong supporting effects. However, the box office performance of non-scheduled periods is mediocre due to less supply of key content, and movie viewing demand needs to be further released.
Historical summer season review: 2023 will reach a record high, which has reference significance for the full-year box office forecast
The summer season box office after 2020 and the overall performance of the market will show a basically consistent recovery trend, and the 2023 summer season (including the Dragon Boat Festival season), in " Driven by films such as "The Lost She ", "Fengshen" and " All or Nothing", the total box office including service fees was 20.63 billion yuan, which was the best box office for the same period in the past five years, an increase of 14.1% compared with 2019. CICC believes that the summer season has a large capacity, new types and new styles of movies have greater room for development, and the supply of diversified films is attractive to young users; and as the summer season has the longest time span throughout the year, its performance It is of reference significance for predicting the recovery of the film industry throughout the year and the final location of the box office.
Outlook for the 2024 summer season: Pay attention to the performance of key films under a high base. It is expected that the box office will decrease by 15% year-on-year to increase by 5%.
For the 2024 summer season, key films that have been scheduled include " There is a Commissary in the Cloud " and " Customs Front ”, “Umbrella Girl”, “Legend”, “Wild Child”, “Successor Plan”, “ Under Strangers ”, “ Retrograde Life ”, “ White Snake: Floating Life ”, etc. CICC pointed out that there were many leading films with a box office of more than 1 billion in last summer's summer season, which has a certain high base pressure. This year's total box office may be between 85% (17.5 billion yuan) and 105% (21.7 billion yuan) of last year's box office. In the meantime, the performance of top films may have an important impact on the final box office placement. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the progress of key films being scheduled and the box office performance of already scheduled films after they are released.
Risk factors: The quality and quantity of content supply are not as good as expected, competition intensifies, piracy spreads, and supervision tightens.
