Direct News: On Wednesday (24th), the U.S. Senate will discuss passing the tiktok sale bill. What do you think the fate of tiktok will be?
special commentator Chen Bing: The U.S. House of Representatives has passed the TikTok bill, requiring TikTok to be sold to an American company within one year and decoupled from its parent company ByteDance, otherwise it will be banned. It is likely to pass the Senate and be signed by President Biden because confronting China is a bipartisan consensus in the United States. The new bill extends the sale period from 6 months to 9 months. It is estimated that Biden will extend it by another 3 months after signing, so that there will be one year. But then the problem becomes difficult. The first is, is China’s ByteDance willing to sell?
The news I saw today (April 23) is that ByteDance has no intention of selling and wants to develop its business in the US market. TikTok is an international holding company and not a wholly-owned subsidiary of ByteDance. ByteDance only owns 20% of the shares but has a controlling stake in the company, with about 60% of the remaining shares held by institutional investors, including large U.S. investment firms, and the remaining 20% held by employees around the world. This complex shareholding structure makes the sale difficult, and if shareholders cannot reach a consensus, the sale may not be completed. Just selling it is so complicated, so TikTok still has a chance. When the situation changes, the "ban" may still be lifted and TikTok can still develop in the US market.
Direct News: If TikTok wants to overturn the "Sell or Ban" bill of the US Congress, what other ways can it take to save itself?
special commentator Chen Bing: If TikTok wants to overturn this unreasonable bill, it will mainly defend its rights from a legal perspective through litigation. In other words, even if Biden signs this bill, TikTok can still be saved and there is still a chance to turn defeat into victory.
First, this move violates the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. The US government has made three previous attempts to ban TikTok, but they were either shelved or abandoned. Trump's bill in 2020 is one, the bill passed by Montana in November 2023 is another, and the other is the tiktok "no sale or ban" bill passed by the U.S. House of Representatives in mid-March. Each time, the principle of free speech ultimately prevailed. According to statistics from the Pew Research Center, approximately 170 million Americans spend at least one hour a day on TikTok, and more than 40% of American users say TikTok is their regular news source. Therefore, the forced sale and banning of tiktok violates freedom of speech.
Second, the “sell or ban” bill on TikTok is obviously predatory and discriminatory. It is not targeting an industry or field, but an enterprise. Musk, the owner of social media platform
Third, the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate have insufficient basis for banning tiktok. They say it is a data transfer and it has become a propaganda tool for China. In fact, TikTok spent US$1.5 billion in 2020 to store all US user data on Oracle's servers. The data transfer is just an excuse for politicians; if it is said to be a propaganda tool for China, American technical experts say that even if TikTok Selling it will not solve this problem, because TikTok in the United States and international users are interconnected and cannot stop publicity, so this reason is not valid.
Fourth, changes may also occur after the US election. Trump, who is currently leading the polls, criticized Biden yesterday (22nd) for being responsible for the ban of tiktok. He did this to make Biden's friends on Facebook Become richer and take a more active position in the market. This is true and does not conform to the principle of fair competition. If Trump is elected, it is not ruled out that he will repeal the ban on TikTok.
Fifth, the support of public opinion may bring a turn for the better to TikTok, although the hope is slim. Most TikTok users are from Generation Z, while the average age of U.S. congressmen is 58, and Biden is 80 years old, with little understanding of new media. Moreover, TikTok contributes US$24 billion to the US economy every year. These may become strong evidence for tiktok and change the fate of "if it is not sold, it will be banned".
Author丨Chen Bing, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Broadcast of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan"
Editor丨Wang Zhijing, Chief Editor of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News
Typesetting丨Su Ruixue, Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News Editor
