The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has lasted for more than two years. In the past two years or so, there have been some opportunities for ceasefire, but without exception, they have been disrupted by the West, causing the war to continue.
Now, a new opportunity is taking shape.
Due to the failure of Ukraine's counteroffensive, war resources are gradually exhausted, coupled with the reduction of external aid and internal recruitment difficulties, it is difficult to continue fighting for a long time.
When the weather gets warmer, Russia will launch a new round of large-scale offensive. If Ukraine cannot withstand it, there will be no fight at all, and it will have to negotiate with Russia.
Therefore, it is possible to see the results as soon as this summer.
During his recent visit to the United States, EU Foreign Minister Borrell also stated that the fate of Ukraine will be determined in the next few months, and he is worried that Ukraine will collapse in a few months.
Against this background, French President Macron proposed another "ceasefire plan."
Macron suggests a ceasefire during the Olympics
According to the Russian Satellite News Agency, French President Macron said in an interview that he would recommend a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine during the Olympics.
This year's Olympic Games will be held from July to mid-August. If everything goes well, the Russian army should make considerable progress by then.
All parties are likely to accept such a ceasefire plan. After all, the Olympic Games can give everyone a step down, especially the losing party.
Since the Olympic Games will last for more than a month, as long as there is a ceasefire, a lot of things can be done during this month.
And as long as the ceasefire can be successful, various factors are expected to act as resistance if there is another fight. It is expected that a long-term ceasefire will be achieved and enough time will be bought for negotiations.
Russia responded
Russia responded to Macron’s suggestion.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova said: "I made a response proposal to Macron: stop supplying weapons that kill civilians to Kiev and stop sponsoring terrorism. The second proposal is to make the same proposal to all parties in the Middle East , there may be many things there that depend on France’s suggestions.”
Russia did not explicitly refuse, but made its own demands.
said that France should stop aid. In fact, this was said to all countries that provide weapons to Ukraine.
As long as the West stops aid, a ceasefire will come soon, and we don’t even need to wait for the Olympics.
If the West only talks about ceasefire but does not take any practical actions, it will be difficult to achieve a real ceasefire, even a temporary ceasefire.
Russia’s conditions are very clear.
Russia has repeatedly put forward its own conditions. In addition to territorial requirements, the most important thing is security guarantees to ensure that the West will not arm Ukraine again.
If the West cannot even stop supplying weapons to Ukraine now, how can Russia trust that the West will not rearm Ukraine in the future.
Therefore, the issue of the West supplying arms to Ukraine is not a trivial matter. It is a red line for Russia and it can be regarded as the minimum requirement for Russia to ensure its own security in the future.
If agreement cannot be reached on the issue of arms supply, it will be very difficult to achieve a ceasefire and peace talks will be almost impossible.
Former U.S. President Trump saw this issue more clearly. The solution he proposed was to immediately stop aid to Ukraine after taking office. In this way, even the prerequisites for the ceasefire zone and peace talks were realized.
Although there are certain differences among Western leaders, they can still reach a high degree of consensus on providing weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. This is one of the main reasons why peace talks have been delayed in starting.
