There is a quarrel in the Philippines surrounding the constitutional amendment. Opposition forces represented by the Duterte family organized rallies in many places across the Philippines to demand that the pro-American Marcos government abandon the constitutional amendment. The continued political turmoil in the Philippines is very likely to affect the development of the situation in the South China Sea.
This year marks the 38th anniversary of the "people's revolution" launched by the Filipino people to overthrow the old Marcos rule. Although Marcos Jr. had already signed an order declaring that the anniversary of the "People's Revolution" was not a statutory holiday, Philippine civil society and some local political forces still organized a series of commemorative activities. In some activities, the public directly pointed the finger at pro-American politicians. The Marcos administration.
In the capital Manila, people held banners with slogans such as "Say No to the Constitutional Amendment" and took to the streets to march to commemorate the "people's revolution" and vowed not to repeat the same mistakes, and opposed Marcos Jr.'s amendment of the Philippine Constitution.
In Cebu City in the central Philippines, the country's former President Duterte will host a rally attended by political groups from different factions to oppose Marcos Jr.'s constitutional amendment through launching the "People's Initiative" movement.
In Quezon City, not far from Manila, some Filipino religious figures organized a religious event to commemorate the 38th anniversary of the overthrow of the old Marcos rule and to oppose the government's constitutional amendment.
Many forces, including the Duterte family, have chosen to act at this time to oppose Marcos Jr.'s push for constitutional amendments, mainly because once the constitutional amendment is successful, it will have a huge impact on the political situation of the Philippines and even the development of the country. Influence.
According to Marcos Jr., the current Philippine Constitution has hindered the country's economic development. He wants to increase foreign investment, create more jobs, and promote economic development through constitutional amendments.
Although the president has repeatedly emphasized that the current constitutional amendments are only focused on the economic field. However, next year is the year of mid-term elections in the Philippines. Marcos Jr.'s push to amend the constitution is still considered to increase his political achievements so that he can lead the political group he leads to gain an advantage in the mid-term elections and pave the way for the 2028 general election.
More importantly, many people in the Philippines are worried that Marcos will extend the constitutional amendment to the political field after completing adjustments in the economic field.
Marcos Jr. may have two ultimate goals. One is to lift the 1987 Constitution's presidential term limits so that he can seek re-election in 2028. The other is to change the Philippines from the current "presidential republic" to a "parliamentary republic" similar to countries such as Germany. The president no longer holds the highest power, and the prime minister elected by the largest party in parliament takes power.
The outside world now generally believes that Marcos is more likely to choose the latter.
After all, after a series of parliamentary struggles in 2023, the Federal Party led by Marcos Jr. and the "Lakas Party" led by his cousin and current Speaker of the House of Representatives Martin Romualdez, in There is an absolute majority in the House of Representatives.
At the same time, Marcos Jr.’s eldest son, Sandro, entered politics a few years ago by serving as an assistant to Martin. With Marcos Jr. paving the way, this post-90s politician has inherited the family’s traditional territory of Iro Norte. seat in the House of Representatives for the province of Gogo and rose to the top of the Federalist Party.
If Marcos Jr. really completes the constitutional amendment, he can hand over the highest power to Martin when he leaves office, and then Martin will hand over the power to Sandro many years later, finally allowing the family to continue to work for nearly 20 years. , has long held the highest power in the Philippines.
Young Marcos dares to make this attempt now, largely because, more than 30 years later, many Filipino people have forgotten the chaos of the old Marcos era, and their resistance to the Marcos family's long-term power is decreasing. After taking office, Marcos also deliberately avoided mentioning his father's rule and the "people's revolution" in order to achieve his own political goals.
The Duterte family and other forces took the lead in launching actions on the anniversary of the "People's Revolution". They also wanted to use this method to awaken the Filipino people's memory of the old Marcos era and prevent young Marcos from completing his goals.
It should be noted that the domestic struggle over the constitutional amendment in the Philippines is very likely to affect the country's diplomatic strategy and the situation in the South China Sea.
Let’s talk about diplomacy first. In order to promote the constitutional amendment, Marcos needs the support of more domestic forces. Now that he has broken with the Duterte family, it is no longer realistic to win over the pragmatists in the Philippines. Marcos is very likely to further strengthen relations with pro-American factions.
At the same time, the military has always been a special political force in the Philippines. When the old Marcos was forced to step down and led his family into exile overseas, it was partly because of the sudden defection of the military. Not long ago, Lao Du also came forward to ask the Philippine military and police departments to take action to "protect the constitution." If Marcos wants to ensure that the scene in the past will not occur during the constitutional amendment process, he needs to reach a consensus with the military. The Philippine military happens to have close relations with the United States. Therefore, it is not ruled out that Marcos will further lead the Philippines closer to the United States in order to promote constitutional revision.
Let’s talk about the South China Sea issue. In addition to the possible impact of the further improvement of US-Philippine relations, the increase in opposition to the constitutional amendment in the Philippines may also prompt Marcos to further use the South China Sea issue to divert domestic public attention and buy time for the constitutional amendment. Under such circumstances, the Philippines may provoke troubles in the South China Sea more frequently.
Therefore, for China, the constitutional amendment movement in the Philippines is not an internal matter of another country that has nothing to do with us. We need to keep an eye on this matter, and according to the development of the situation, strengthen our defense forces in the South China Sea in a timely manner to prevent Marcos and others from conducting military adventures in the South China Sea for the sake of family interests.
