The Paper reporter Wang Zhen
2024 The Spring Festival stalls come to an end on the eighth day of the Lunar New Year. According to statistics from the National Film Administration, the national movie box office during the 2024 Spring Festival holiday (February 10 to February 17) was 8.016 billion yuan, and the number of moviegoers was 163 million. Compared with the 2023 Spring Festival holiday, the box office and number of moviegoers increased by 18.47% respectively. and 26.36%, both setting new records for the same period.
The top four box office films are: " hot " 2.718 billion yuan, " speeding life 2" 2.398 billion yuan, "Bear Infestation: Reverse Time and Space" 1.389 billion yuan, "Article 20" 1.34 billion yuan .
As of 9:30 am on February 18, the box office for the whole year of 2024 has reached 11.081 billion yuan, with domestic films accounting for 96.75%. It should be said that achieving the results was not easy.
At the same time, within a few days of the end of the Spring Festival, " Let's Shake the Sun Together ", "Huang Pi: The God of Wealth Cat from Heaven", " Mr. Red Carpet ", and "Bajie: The Lower World of the Canopy" have been released one after another. Announcement of withdrawal. Half of the films released during the Spring Festival have been withdrawn, which is the first time in domestic film history. It undoubtedly indicates that the film market in 2024 still needs to deepen reforms.
Zhi Feina, a professor at the Chinese Academy of Arts, will accept an exclusive interview with The Paper reporters immediately after the Spring Festival since 2021, taking stock of last year's film market problems, analyzing the gains and losses of this Spring Festival, and giving a review of the new to make an outlook for the film market in 2020. This year is no exception. In Zhi Feina's view, compared with the record-breaking performance of many indicators, "the ecology of the film industry is obviously getting better, which is undoubtedly more important."
[Dialogue]
"Return to respecting the laws of the market, the laws of art, and the laws of management. The right path is on”
The Paper: The 2024 Spring Festival has ended. Data from the National Film Administration shows that the total box office of the Spring Festival exceeded 8 billion yuan, surpassing the 2021 Spring Festival (7.822 billion yuan) and becoming a new box office record for the Spring Festival in Chinese film history. . This year's Spring Festival period lasts for eight days from the first to the eighth day of the first lunar month, but in the past it lasted six days from the first to the sixth day of the first lunar month, so this record is also related to the extension of the schedule. Of course, the box office in the first six days of this year’s Spring Festival has basically equaled the 6.758 billion yuan in 2023. Please first share your observations and opinions on the total box office.
Zhi Fina: The Spring Festival is the opening of the new year for the film industry, which shows the awareness and confidence of all sectors of society in films. This year's Spring Festival period has completely replaced the previous years in many data, becoming the new first in history. I think this means the following:
First, it once again reflects what General Secretary Xi said in his New Year's message that "the film market is booming." In the past few years, in compliance with the overall situation of epidemic prevention and control, audiences had no other way to consume entertainment, so they flocked to theaters during the New Year. So some market performance is distorted. This Spring Festival, the holiday has been extended, the epidemic situation has changed, many countries and regions are exempted from visas, and air tickets to neighboring countries have plummeted. Data related to cultural tourism shows that many domestic tourism data have significantly exceeded the same period in 2019, and outbound tourism has also fully recovered. Furthermore, due to the economic environment, will audiences wait to watch movies online? It should be said that the pre-sales data before the official opening of the Spring Festival this year is not ideal. As of the 30th of the twelfth lunar month, it was only more than 700 million yuan, which is worse than the pre-sales of more than 900 million yuan in 2023. Until more than 26.5 million viewers entered the theater on the first day of the first lunar month, all worries disappeared. Therefore, the Year of the Dragon Spring Festival movie can achieve such box office results, which proves that the new folk custom of watching movies during the Spring Festival in normal years has been established.
Second, multiple indicators are coordinated and progress together. The box office has increased in the past few years, but the average ticket price has also increased, and the audience has opinions. In addition to the increase in box office this year, the number of visitors has also increased to 163 million, and the ticket price has dropped again compared with 2023. This shows that it is popular to finally break the Spring Festival box office record. The average ticket price this year is 49.18 yuan, which is 3.21 yuan cheaper than the 52.39 yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 6%. Because there are various discounts, many viewers may feel that the tickets will be cheaper. The number of theaters in operation peaked at 12,000, an increase of more than 500 from previous years, indicating that investors still recognize theaters. With films generally running longer, the total number of screenings has also reached a new high of about 4 million, with an average of about 500,000 screenings per day. Theater managers got up earlier than in previous years to greet the audience.
Thirdly, rather than setting records for many indicators, the industry ecology is obviously getting better, which is more important.
The Paper reporter Wang Zhen
2024 The Spring Festival stalls come to an end on the eighth day of the Lunar New Year. According to statistics from the National Film Administration, the national movie box office during the 2024 Spring Festival holiday (February 10 to February 17) was 8.016 billion yuan, and the number of moviegoers was 163 million. Compared with the 2023 Spring Festival holiday, the box office and number of moviegoers increased by 18.47% respectively. and 26.36%, both setting new records for the same period.
The top four box office films are: " hot " 2.718 billion yuan, " speeding life 2" 2.398 billion yuan, "Bear Infestation: Reverse Time and Space" 1.389 billion yuan, "Article 20" 1.34 billion yuan .
As of 9:30 am on February 18, the box office for the whole year of 2024 has reached 11.081 billion yuan, with domestic films accounting for 96.75%. It should be said that achieving the results was not easy.
At the same time, within a few days of the end of the Spring Festival, " Let's Shake the Sun Together ", "Huang Pi: The God of Wealth Cat from Heaven", " Mr. Red Carpet ", and "Bajie: The Lower World of the Canopy" have been released one after another. Announcement of withdrawal. Half of the films released during the Spring Festival have been withdrawn, which is the first time in domestic film history. It undoubtedly indicates that the film market in 2024 still needs to deepen reforms.
Zhi Feina, a professor at the Chinese Academy of Arts, will accept an exclusive interview with The Paper reporters immediately after the Spring Festival since 2021, taking stock of last year's film market problems, analyzing the gains and losses of this Spring Festival, and giving a review of the new to make an outlook for the film market in 2020. This year is no exception. In Zhi Feina's view, compared with the record-breaking performance of many indicators, "the ecology of the film industry is obviously getting better, which is undoubtedly more important."
[Dialogue]
"Return to respecting the laws of the market, the laws of art, and the laws of management. The right path is on”
The Paper: The 2024 Spring Festival has ended. Data from the National Film Administration shows that the total box office of the Spring Festival exceeded 8 billion yuan, surpassing the 2021 Spring Festival (7.822 billion yuan) and becoming a new box office record for the Spring Festival in Chinese film history. . This year's Spring Festival period lasts for eight days from the first to the eighth day of the first lunar month, but in the past it lasted six days from the first to the sixth day of the first lunar month, so this record is also related to the extension of the schedule. Of course, the box office in the first six days of this year’s Spring Festival has basically equaled the 6.758 billion yuan in 2023. Please first share your observations and opinions on the total box office.
Zhi Fina: The Spring Festival is the opening of the new year for the film industry, which shows the awareness and confidence of all sectors of society in films. This year's Spring Festival period has completely replaced the previous years in many data, becoming the new first in history. I think this means the following:
First, it once again reflects what General Secretary Xi said in his New Year's message that "the film market is booming." In the past few years, in compliance with the overall situation of epidemic prevention and control, audiences had no other way to consume entertainment, so they flocked to theaters during the New Year. So some market performance is distorted. This Spring Festival, the holiday has been extended, the epidemic situation has changed, many countries and regions are exempted from visas, and air tickets to neighboring countries have plummeted. Data related to cultural tourism shows that many domestic tourism data have significantly exceeded the same period in 2019, and outbound tourism has also fully recovered. Furthermore, due to the economic environment, will audiences wait to watch movies online? It should be said that the pre-sales data before the official opening of the Spring Festival this year is not ideal. As of the 30th of the twelfth lunar month, it was only more than 700 million yuan, which is worse than the pre-sales of more than 900 million yuan in 2023. Until more than 26.5 million viewers entered the theater on the first day of the first lunar month, all worries disappeared. Therefore, the Year of the Dragon Spring Festival movie can achieve such box office results, which proves that the new folk custom of watching movies during the Spring Festival in normal years has been established.
Second, multiple indicators are coordinated and progress together. The box office has increased in the past few years, but the average ticket price has also increased, and the audience has opinions. In addition to the increase in box office this year, the number of visitors has also increased to 163 million, and the ticket price has dropped again compared with 2023. This shows that it is popular to finally break the Spring Festival box office record. The average ticket price this year is 49.18 yuan, which is 3.21 yuan cheaper than the 52.39 yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 6%. Because there are various discounts, many viewers may feel that the tickets will be cheaper. The number of theaters in operation peaked at 12,000, an increase of more than 500 from previous years, indicating that investors still recognize theaters. With films generally running longer, the total number of screenings has also reached a new high of about 4 million, with an average of about 500,000 screenings per day. Theater managers got up earlier than in previous years to greet the audience.
Thirdly, rather than setting records for many indicators, the industry ecology is obviously getting better, which is more important.The market is further fair, open, and united. Everyone is doing their own thing seriously and letting quality speak for itself. The "advance" and "exit" of films are determined by market entities, giving full play to the positive role of the market mechanism. Several titles The box office volume of each film was well-proportioned and developed in a balanced manner, and there was no phenomenon of one or a few films overwhelming each other; this year, there was no obvious black water on the Internet, leakage and underreporting of box office, secretly recorded videos, security Screening accidents and other phenomena.
The Paper: You just mentioned that the industry ecology has improved significantly. Can you expand on this?
Zhi Feina: The macro-environment of the eight-day holiday provides ample room for box office releases during the Spring Festival. Of course, the most important thing is that since the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, after three years of epidemic prevention and control, the entire industry has spent more than a year returning to the correct path of respecting the laws of the market, respecting the laws of art, and respecting the laws of management.
First of all, only by respecting the market can we win the market. There are no key films to enter the Spring Festival this year. It is decided by each market entity. The screening of these films is also the result of the theater manager's own debugging based on market response. The audience can arrange more films as they like. Affected by the epidemic in the past few years, there are obvious official factors in the scheduling of major film schedules. Some film themes may be more suitable during the National Day period. There are too many "hard dishes" that the audience will be tired of and unable to digest. There are many “home-cooked dishes” during the Spring Festival this year, and even “spicy hotpot” is on the table. Cooks and eaters no longer need to follow the planned economy method. Whether the food is good or not depends first on the chef’s skills and secondly on innovation. The taste, see if it will make you cry.
Secondly, only by respecting the laws of art can we win the audience. Over the past year or so, the management department, relevant departments and the audience have provided a more relaxed and inclusive creative environment, allowing artists to create freely. Therefore, the film faces the reality of society and respects the value and belief of individual life. The most typical one is "Article 20", produced by the Film and Television Center of the Supreme People's Procuratorate. However, the film does not preach the rule of law with a straight face, but focuses on the middle-aged temporary prosecutor who finally chooses to insist on " "Using the law to defend the bottom line of morality" makes legitimate defense, a legal provision that is closely related to individual rights and interests, real and concrete. The same goes for last year's "In the Octagon", "I Passed the Storm", "All or Nothing", etc. I think the characters in these films all embody what General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out in his speech at the symposium on literature and art work: "The people are not abstract symbols, but concrete people with flesh and blood, emotions, loves and hates, and dreams." , there are also inner conflicts and struggles.”
"Article 20" poster
Once again, only by respecting management rules can the market be more efficient. The film industry is a cultural industry, and macro-management must be administered in accordance with the law and the general direction of reform should be pointed out, and the specific direction should be explored by the market. If the competent authorities take action personally when encountering any problem, it will only lead to two results. One is that the market loses the motivation for reform, and the other is that the market loses the ability to reform. Therefore, in the past year or so, we have seen that the central management department has accelerated the progress of film filing and review, returning the decision-making power of film production, creation and release to the market, allowing "Taylor Swift: Time Tour" to More non-movie content such as "Concert" has entered the market, and it has also guided the market to explore the path of branch distribution. Where macro-management cannot reach, we must give full play to the power of industry autonomy.
The Paper: From the perspective of ordinary viewers, many people reported that theater ticket prices were too expensive last year. Why will the Spring Festival ticket prices be cheaper this year?
Zhi Fina: The 2023 Central Economic Work Conference proposed to “promote consumption from post-epidemic recovery to continued expansion.” It is reasonable for movie tickets to become cheaper. There are three specific reasons.
First, film producers and online platforms directly subsidize ticket-buying audiences in the form of "full discounts" and "red envelopes". Discounts can be stacked, which has never happened in previous years. The early bird price of some live broadcast rooms is even as low as 5.9 yuan, or even 0 yuan. The tickets I bought this year were mostly 18 to 35 yuan, which can be said to be very affordable.
Second, banks and local governments have provided various movie viewing subsidies or consumer coupons, and many viewers feel that ticket prices will be cheaper.According to my statistics, 8 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) including Shanghai and Hunan have issued coupons for movie viewing during the Spring Festival, which is quite an effort. On February 6, I participated in the “Watching Movies to Celebrate the New Year·Digital RMB Preferential Movie Viewing Event” and related seminars hosted by the National Film Administration and the Digital Currency Research Institute of the People’s Bank of China in Suzhou, and witnessed 11 banking institutions participating in the Spring Festival. During this period, more than 30 million yuan was invested in digital RMB film marketing across the country.
Another small reason is that the overall tone of this year's Spring Festival movies is more everyday, so ordinary viewers don't need to choose the more expensive high-tech movies.
"Separate issuance is imperative, dividing the market is not separate issuance"
The Paper: Before the opening of the Spring Festival this year, there was once a plan to conduct separate issuance, but then it was cancelled. What do you think of this situation?
Zhi Feina: Distribution through separate lines is imperative. Dividing the market is not about distribution through separate lines. Regarding branch distribution and other aspects, I have also heard various voices, wondering whether there is something wrong with the industry, and whether some local adjustments are wrong? There are also rumors circulating on the Internet that some busybodies have made irrelevant arrangements about the entire industry, and even fabricated official documents. But it’s better for the masses to be sarcastic than to remain silent, right? What I am sure of is that if we continue to follow the old path of isolation and rigidity, there will be no hope for Chinese films to recover.
China already has 86,000 screens, but the market capacity is still insufficient. Many films cannot make ends meet. The annual attendance rate still has not reached the break-even point. Some excellent films are still not recognized by a wider audience. Through branched distribution and diversified screenings, the "visibility" of more movies can be increased, more theaters can continue to operate, and more audiences can share the fruits of cultural development. In October 2023, I discussed the path of branch distribution with the industry in Hengdian and shared the relevant experiences of various countries. The Chinese film market has its own characteristics. What kind of branch distribution is suitable for the Chinese market requires everyone to cross the river by feeling the stones.
In recent months, market entities have made various attempts. This includes discussions between film studios and theaters on film scheduling ratios, increasing bill sharing ratios, etc. There are successes and there are failures. On the eve of this Spring Festival, each film company proposed its own film scheduling ratio. Three companies should not be less than 22%, two should not be less than 12%, and one should not be less than 10%, which is equivalent to not giving any space to other films. Therefore, on the afternoon of January 30, the China Film Producers Association and the China Film Distribution and Exhibition Association held a symposium, requiring that "no unit or organization can use its market dominance to interfere in market operations, including film scheduling, and Make restrictive arrangements for the legitimate business activities of each market entity." If market entities go astray, industry associations will govern themselves.
To promote the reform of China's film system, we must give full play to the positive role of the market mechanism. Since the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, we have seen that both the competent authorities and all parties in the industry are actively pursuing innovation and change. Reform and innovation and trial and error tolerance are complementary to each other, and these trials and errors should be made valuable. Whether it is separate issuance, adjusting the account sharing ratio, or other explorations, the fundamental purpose is to further liberate the productivity of the industry and make the industry more dynamic and vital, rather than lying flat, let alone waiting to die. The entire industry needs to withstand trial and error, and we also expect higher-level decision-making departments to continue to tolerate and trust the industry, so that we can find a development path for the film industry that suits China's national conditions.
The Paper: What changes have been made in the content of this year’s Spring Festival films compared with previous years?
Zhi Feina: First, the differences between the films are particularly obvious, and they “do not fight each other” in terms of subject matter and type. The main six films all have obvious niche characteristics. "Hot and Spicy" has more female viewers, "Flying Life 2" has more male viewers, " Article 20 " has more mature viewers over 40 years old, and "Bear Infested" has more family audiences in non-first-tier cities. The audience for "Mr. Red Carpet" is relatively large in first-tier cities, and the audience for "Let's Shake the Sun Together" is relatively large among young couples in second-tier cities.
Second, the film’s market lineup is more balanced.In the past few years, the phenomenon of "two companies dominating" was quite obvious in several major schedules. The third place could sometimes differ by more than 20% in market share and film schedule ratio. During this year’s Spring Festival, the box office shares and film schedule ratios of the first four films are relatively close. Without the siphon effect of super blockbusters, it leaves more room for market development.
Third, the types of Spring Festival stalls this year are relatively similar, with more “familiar faces”, but this is also the result of the market’s own selection and self-adjusting. Many actors appeared twice during the Spring Festival this year, and have appeared frequently in film and television dramas in the past year or two, and their screen images are relatively similar. This is due to the desire for stability and failure to break through the comfort zone. In the long run, it will reduce the audience's novelty expectations.
2024 Spring Festival movie attendance curve graph. Photo provided by interviewee
The Paper: We noticed that in the middle of the Spring Festival, the number of screenings of the movie "Article 20" began to increase significantly, and the attendance rate also gradually led the way. New film for the Spring Festival.
Zhi Fina: In terms of arranging films for the Spring Festival this year, the initiative is given to the theater manager. The theater manager will try to arrange films based on which films have a good reputation and high attendance. In previous years, film studios often had some contractual agreements with theaters, so this year's film schedule is mainly determined based on market attendance.
After the second day of the release of "Article 20", the attendance rate has been improving. Naturally, the proportion of subsequent films will also increase accordingly. This is actually a new trend in the industry, which is to let the market exert its initiative and activate the market itself. . The Spring Festival is a "fast battle". Many viewers are low-frequency consumers and often decide to watch movies on the spur of the moment. At this time, it is very important what movies are arranged in the theaters of nearby theaters. Affected by the epidemic in the past few years, some sectors of the industry have a mentality of relying on the weather and waiting for death. This attempt to hand over the initiative of film scheduling to theater managers will help activate the activity of capillaries in the industry and make the entire body healthier. "Article 20" is undoubtedly an excellent film. If more viewers see it, it will also have a good role in promoting social fairness and justice. Its attendance rate is gradually surpassing that, which is behind the recommendation of the audience, which is also what the industry is happy to see.
Withdrawal of the film, "Have the Spring Festival audiences' viewing needs been fully considered?"
The Paper News: On February 14, "Let's Shake the Sun Together" officially announced its withdrawal; on February 16, "Huang Pi: God of Wealth from Heaven" "Cat" and "Mr. Red Carpet" have officially announced their withdrawal; on February 17, the last day of the Spring Festival, "Bajie: The Lower World of the Canopy" officially announced its withdrawal. Half of the eight films scheduled for the Spring Festival this year have been withdrawn. This is the first time in film history that this has happened. Can these withdrawn films arrange their own re-screening times? Does this need to be reported to the State Administration of Film?
Zhi Fina: I think that movies that are not suitable for the Spring Festival are withdrawn. From the perspective of the long-term development of the industry, its warning effect is very valuable. The market decides on its own affairs, which is also the biggest change in the industry in more than a year. This is like opening a restaurant on the street. If you have the money to open a store and you can get a cook, go and open it. If you have more money, open an expensive shop; if you have less money, open a snack bar in a small street. Just go through the industrial and commercial procedures and ensure food safety. The chef's cooking is not as good as other restaurants, or the waiter's attitude is bad, or the diners like spicy food but can't eat the Huaiyang cuisine of your store. If you can't continue to open it and choose to close it, you only need to go to the industrial and commercial department to log out. If it opens on a certain day, whether it is Sichuan cuisine or Huaiyang cuisine, how much Sichuan pepper is used, and what day it closes, it has to go to the government to ask for instructions in the morning and report later. Not to mention this restaurant, the entire street will be unable to do business.
In the past two years since the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, what themes to choose for Spring Festival and summer movies, which films to enter and withdraw from the archives, whether to fully release or partially screen, are all market behaviors, which are determined by market entities based on the film content and audience psychology. Determined by other factors, no administrative permission is required. As long as you get a public release license, it means that the quality content is officially recognized as qualified. Of course, there will be some administrative factors for key films. If the film schedule is too dense and is not conducive to the development of the industry, the industry association should coordinate on its own.
The Paper: Last year, only one film, "China Ping Pong," was withdrawn from the Spring Festival. This year, four movies were withdrawn. The topic continued to ferment after the Spring Festival ended. Some netizens even said, "I am also withdrawing from the Spring Festival." Such a random withdrawal will eventually have a shock to the healthy ecology of the film market. In your opinion, how can we avoid this situation from happening again in the future?
Zhi Feina: This year, 4 out of the 8 films scheduled for the Spring Festival were withdrawn, which is a lot. But it's not for nothing. The core question is, did they fully consider the viewing needs of the Spring Festival moviegoers when announcing the movie schedule?
In terms of individual films, "Bajie: The Lower World of the Canopy" and "Huang Pi: The God of Wealth Cat from Heaven" all showed that they were hastily scheduled, and they rushed in blindly to get a piece of the pie without even keeping up with the content announcement. These brands have absolutely no recognition and failure is expected. In fact, this is not without lessons. The same is true for the 2022 Spring Festival animated film "Little Tiger Dune Heroes" and the 2023 Spring Festival film "Ice, Snow and Youth".
I personally like "Let's Shake the Sun Together". However, as the final film of director Han Yan's "Terminal Illness Trilogy", its theme and content are not suitable for the family-friendly atmosphere during the Spring Festival. When returning home during the Spring Festival, young people have to face relatives urging them to go on blind dates and get married. Its slogan "Shake the sun and eat wedding candy" really dissuades young viewers. Therefore, the film crew admitted that "there was a major decision-making error", which is correct.
I went to see "Mr. Red Carpet" on the morning of the first day of the first lunar month. The film is in-depth and thoughtful, and the creators are very attentive. But even with a big star like Andy Lau, the threshold for watching the movie is still high. Ordinary viewers have nothing to say after watching the movie, and it cannot become a topic. Similar cases include the previous "Assassination of Novelists", "Samurai God Order" and so on.
Before the official announcement of its withdrawal, "Let's Shake the Sun Together" had a box office of over 90 million, and Douban scored 7.9 points
I personally think "Let's Shake the Sun Together" is the highest-quality film in this year's Spring Festival. If the selection and promotion are further improved, If you are more cautious, you may get good results. Now it is adjusted to the Qingming festival on March 30 to fight again, which is more consistent with the story of the movie, but whether there will be a significant reversal at the box office will not be revealed until then. The other three films have only officially announced their withdrawal and have not announced new release dates. There will definitely be greater variables in the future. In any case, the occurrence of such a situation in this spring's schedule requires a high degree of caution when selecting schedules and preparing promotional materials in the future.
The Paper: In your opinion, what kind of movies are suitable for the Spring Festival?
Zhi Fina: Frankly speaking, the Spring Festival period is not a professional period. It must take care of the cultural consumption needs of more than 100 million viewers to the greatest extent. I often say that it is impossible to draw a portrait of the audience during the Spring Festival with existing methods. We do not know the age composition, gender composition, education composition, and income composition of the audience. A large part of the Spring Festival audience is low-frequency viewers. Many of them only watch movies once a year, such as the elderly who occasionally reunite with their children, returnees who go out to work, high school students with heavy academic workload, and those who are in the form of paperwork. civil servants, etc.
This requires that movies released during the Spring Festival must first have highly recognizable labels. Low-frequency viewers pay special attention to the viewing experience. Why should they pay for a completely unfamiliar product? Content that is less likely to "go wrong" is definitely more likely to be selected. Otherwise, it would be awkward to go watch a movie with your parents or children that is not universal, or a movie that requires serious discussion, and walk out of the theater relatively speechless. Why has "Bear Bears" been popular for so many years? Why do Spring Festival movies always feature those familiar comedy stars and even crosstalk actors? The label attributes on them allow viewers to buy tickets with confidence. In your interview with me last year, I talked about the leader who discussed with me that "Bear Bears" is guaranteed to be released during the Spring Festival. This year, he told me that when he saw the number of viewers of "Bear Bears" on the first day of the first lunar month, he felt that I feel "ok" again. In the past two days, I have even been thinking about whether to create a "bear presence index" to observe the Spring Festival period.
The performance of "Bear Infested" during the Spring Festival is as strong as ever.
Secondly, the format cannot be too heavy.Since you have no time to spare, no matter whether you have money or not, you have to go home to celebrate the New Year. It is easy to relax after a hard year, so the Spring Festival period is of course more suitable for comedy, family reunion, and deep family affection. The same is true for the previous "Detective Chinatown" series, as well as "Havoc in Tianzhu", "Monster Hunt 2", "This Killer Is Not So Calm", etc. During the Spring Festival this year, even though Article 20 expresses very serious thoughts, it chose to use various small humors in the daily life of middle-aged men and women to dilute the compassionate atmosphere. The individual law enforcement officers behind the cold laws appear to be gentle and kind-hearted. The road is not far away.
Once again, emotionally it should make it easy for the audience to "get in touch" and have a sense of involvement. "Hello, Li Huanying", "Hot", and the "Flying Life" series are all like this, and the emotional core can arouse the recognition of most viewers.
Then the threshold for artistic expression cannot be too high. Many low-frequency viewers cannot understand the profound science fiction themes and genres that focus on artistic expression. In the 2023 Spring Festival release, "The Wandering Earth 2" lost to "Man Jiang Hong" because ordinary people can understand the costume detective drama.
must "break the circle" in the final announcement. The marketing methods for Spring Festival movies are different from those in daily life. It is necessary to attract high attention from low-frequency viewers. Materials that are easy to spread are sometimes more important than the completion of the film. In this regard, platform-based publicity companies are better and more effective than traditional companies. The promotion of "Hot and Hot" has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. I watched "Article 20" in December. The film can be said to be "profound in thought, exquisite in art, and well-made." The director also tried his best to choose actors that the audience likes to see, so the attendance rate has been bucking the trend these days. rise. But if the overall promotion can be more professional, it should be far more than the current box office.
"If the film ecosystem improves, investors will come back."
The Paper: Discussions surrounding movies during the Spring Festival have also seen many netizens criticizing singer Xue Zhiqian for watching the screen shot of "Flying Life 2". What do you think? This phenomenon?
Zhi Fina: As a result of intellectual creation, movies are clearly protected by copyright laws of various countries and relevant international treaties. This is common knowledge in the world. Article 31 of the "Film Industry Promotion Law of the People's Republic of China" stipulates that "without the permission of the rights holder, no one may make audio or video recordings of movies being screened." The "Interpretation of the Film Industry Promotion Law" published by China Legal Publishing House believes that this article "does not apply to private photography in theaters." Therefore, strictly speaking, Xue Zhiqian's screen shots are not illegal.
Regarding stolen photography, CCTV News commented like this, and Joker Xue forwarded and responded to
. In my opinion, Joker Xue’s original intention in screen photography was good. He wanted to better help promote the film and prove that he had experienced the film before he truly recommended it. But for a knowledge product like movies, this goes against industry common sense.
In recent years, film intellectual property protection has made rapid progress. In 2019, central leaders issued important instructions regarding the high-definition piracy of "The Wandering Earth" during the Spring Festival. In recent years, the National Copyright Administration and the National Film Administration have strengthened cooperation with the Ministry of Public Security and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to continuously strengthen the copyright protection of films in key schedules. Some laws and regulations such as the "Opinions on Strengthening the Protection of Intellectual Property Rights" jointly issued by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council have also been released. In November 2023, the Supreme People's Court issued the "Judicial Recommendation on Strengthening Intellectual Property Protection Services and Promoting High-Quality Development of the Film Industry." During this year's Spring Festival, many viewers also discovered that after the lights were turned off in the theater, they could see Lei Jiayin's anti-theft recording and screen-photographed public service announcements. As a joke, if Joker Xue stars in an anti-piracy and anti-screen-photography public service announcement during the Spring Festival next year, I believe there will be more audience support and the criticism caused by his screen-photography can be resolved.
In the Spring Festival movie, "Hot and Spicy" spoke out and refused to steal
The Paper News: During the Spring Festival, openai released the first Vincent video model sora, which can not only create realistic and imaginative scenes based on text instructions, but also generate A super long video that lasts up to 1 minute and ends in one shot.Last year chatgpt triggered a strike by Hollywood writers. In your opinion, what impact will the breakthrough of Vincent Video technology have on the film industry?
Zhi Feina: On the morning of the sixth day of the first lunar month, my circle of friends were all frightened awake by Open AI. Maybe the world of "Ready Player One" will arrive soon, and the impact on the video industry will undoubtedly become greater and greater. In fact, it is not only the breakthroughs in high-tech that have impacted the film industry, but the changes in the social environment are also worthy of attention - the "four youths" are now popular, that is, "not falling in love, not getting married, not buying a house, and not having children", and the "three no's era" That is, "a sense of powerlessness, meaninglessness, and lack of autonomy." How should the film respond to the changes of the times and these psychological changes of the audience? These issues are real and urgent.
On the other hand, we should also note that the international media group’s pursuit of innovation and change has not slowed down at all, and it has been deploying the global market. Compared with these "aircraft carriers", our film business business model is still traditional and single, just like a cruise ship sailing alone, or even a small sampan, and its ability to resist risks is still fragile. For a film company with mature experience like Lianrui Pictures, "Send You a Little Red Flower" previously received a box office of 1.432 billion yuan, but this time the failure of the early promotion of "Let's Shake the Sun Together" may have a negative impact on the company. causing a greater impact. Just last year, some excellent films were hit by irrational public opinion, causing great trouble to creators and investors. In my opinion, it is better for the industry to be frightened awake by the constantly innovative technology and the more exquisite creations of international peers, rather than being frightened awake by irrational public opinion.
The Paper: The number of films released throughout 2023 can be said to be dizzying, and all the films that have been reserved in the previous two or three years can be said to be released. Many observers are worried that there will be insufficient reserves and "out of bullets" for theatrical films in 2024. What do you think about this?
Zhi Fina: Yes, many domestic films entering the market in 2023 are "stocks" produced during the epidemic. The film supply situation in 2024 will certainly not be as intensive as in 2023, but there is no need to worry too much, because domestic films There are still many high-quality reserves. Large-scale movies such as the highly anticipated series of movies "The Legend of the Condor Heroes: The Greatest Hero", "White Snake: The Floating Life", "Volunteer 2", "Manslaughter 3" and "The Young Lion 2" are all very anticipated. In the past few days, "Decryption", "Jiangyuan Lane", "Thelma and Louise" and "Nothing That Can't Be Solved by a Hot Pot" have been released in the Spring Festival stalls, which have also aroused the interest of many viewers. There are also some films that the market has been waiting for to be released, such as "Peacekeeping Riot Squad" and "Nezha: The Devil Boy Havoc in the Sea".
When there are not enough "bullets", only by not wasting every good movie can we ensure that we can achieve ideal results in 2024. In 2023, many good movies entered the market without being fully prepared. Their box office revenue was not released as it should be, and they did not form a closer emotional connection with the audience. In 2024, every good movie needs to carefully choose its schedule and publicize it well so that the audience can know about it and find it.
The Paper: This year marks the 30th anniversary of the introduction of imported blockbusters. But correspondingly, in recent years, especially last year, imported blockbusters have declined significantly in mainland theaters and are no longer the panacea of the market. What do you think about this?
Zhi Fina: There are many reasons why imported films have been underwhelmed in theaters in mainland China. Starting from March this year, there will be "Dune 2", "Kung Fu Panda 4", "Godzilla vs. Kong 2: Rise of an Empire" and other films. Imported films enter the market. However, due to the six-month strike of Hollywood actors and screenwriters in 2023, the production capacity of imported films itself will be greatly affected. There will not be many large-scale films from neighboring Japan in 2023 and 2024. Therefore, I am afraid that the imported film market will shrink further.
The Paper: Thank you very much, Mr. Zhi, for accepting an exclusive interview with The Paper after the Spring Festival for four consecutive years - the domestic movie box office for the whole year of 2023 will end at 54.915 billion, and in the interview at the beginning of last year, you gave this The estimate is 55 billion yuan, which can be said to be quite accurate.Finally, could you please share your thoughts on the box office situation in 2024?
Zhi Fina: To estimate the annual box office, there are many factors that need to be comprehensively considered, including the macroeconomic environment, the audience's psychological needs for watching movies, the external technology development environment, the development speed of streaming media and other influencing factors, and the film supply of the year must also be added. Comprehensive analysis of the situation. What I want to say is that there are still many uncertainties in 2024, but the four Spring Festival films "Hot", "Flying Life 2", "Article 20" and "Bear Bears: Reversal of Time" have stabilized the first quarter. The basic market is undoubtedly a good start.
Compared with a specific box office value, what is more important is what I emphasized from the beginning. The overall ecological environment of domestic movies is getting better. In other words, we no longer have to worry about two or three big trees sucking up most of the nutrients and sunlight in the savanna ecology. Instead, we see that the film volume on the market is like a forest, with tall trees and low trees. Shrubs, a large number of herbs and fungi conserve water sources and form a recyclable and healthy ecology. As long as the ecosystem is established, our ability to fight against irrational public opinion and force majeure factors will gradually increase. Just like animals will return to the forest as long as the ecology is good, investors will come back, the film market will continue to thrive, and the dream of becoming a powerful film nation will come true.
Our biggest confidence now is that after three years of epidemic, we can withstand any test. Development does not rely on temporary indicators to rise. Development itself is an upward spiral. We must have confidence in the film market.
According to my statistics, 8 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) including Shanghai and Hunan have issued coupons for movie viewing during the Spring Festival, which is quite an effort. On February 6, I participated in the “Watching Movies to Celebrate the New Year·Digital RMB Preferential Movie Viewing Event” and related seminars hosted by the National Film Administration and the Digital Currency Research Institute of the People’s Bank of China in Suzhou, and witnessed 11 banking institutions participating in the Spring Festival. During this period, more than 30 million yuan was invested in digital RMB film marketing across the country.Another small reason is that the overall tone of this year's Spring Festival movies is more everyday, so ordinary viewers don't need to choose the more expensive high-tech movies.
"Separate issuance is imperative, dividing the market is not separate issuance"
The Paper: Before the opening of the Spring Festival this year, there was once a plan to conduct separate issuance, but then it was cancelled. What do you think of this situation?
Zhi Feina: Distribution through separate lines is imperative. Dividing the market is not about distribution through separate lines. Regarding branch distribution and other aspects, I have also heard various voices, wondering whether there is something wrong with the industry, and whether some local adjustments are wrong? There are also rumors circulating on the Internet that some busybodies have made irrelevant arrangements about the entire industry, and even fabricated official documents. But it’s better for the masses to be sarcastic than to remain silent, right? What I am sure of is that if we continue to follow the old path of isolation and rigidity, there will be no hope for Chinese films to recover.
China already has 86,000 screens, but the market capacity is still insufficient. Many films cannot make ends meet. The annual attendance rate still has not reached the break-even point. Some excellent films are still not recognized by a wider audience. Through branched distribution and diversified screenings, the "visibility" of more movies can be increased, more theaters can continue to operate, and more audiences can share the fruits of cultural development. In October 2023, I discussed the path of branch distribution with the industry in Hengdian and shared the relevant experiences of various countries. The Chinese film market has its own characteristics. What kind of branch distribution is suitable for the Chinese market requires everyone to cross the river by feeling the stones.
In recent months, market entities have made various attempts. This includes discussions between film studios and theaters on film scheduling ratios, increasing bill sharing ratios, etc. There are successes and there are failures. On the eve of this Spring Festival, each film company proposed its own film scheduling ratio. Three companies should not be less than 22%, two should not be less than 12%, and one should not be less than 10%, which is equivalent to not giving any space to other films. Therefore, on the afternoon of January 30, the China Film Producers Association and the China Film Distribution and Exhibition Association held a symposium, requiring that "no unit or organization can use its market dominance to interfere in market operations, including film scheduling, and Make restrictive arrangements for the legitimate business activities of each market entity." If market entities go astray, industry associations will govern themselves.
To promote the reform of China's film system, we must give full play to the positive role of the market mechanism. Since the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, we have seen that both the competent authorities and all parties in the industry are actively pursuing innovation and change. Reform and innovation and trial and error tolerance are complementary to each other, and these trials and errors should be made valuable. Whether it is separate issuance, adjusting the account sharing ratio, or other explorations, the fundamental purpose is to further liberate the productivity of the industry and make the industry more dynamic and vital, rather than lying flat, let alone waiting to die. The entire industry needs to withstand trial and error, and we also expect higher-level decision-making departments to continue to tolerate and trust the industry, so that we can find a development path for the film industry that suits China's national conditions.
The Paper: What changes have been made in the content of this year’s Spring Festival films compared with previous years?
Zhi Feina: First, the differences between the films are particularly obvious, and they “do not fight each other” in terms of subject matter and type. The main six films all have obvious niche characteristics. "Hot and Spicy" has more female viewers, "Flying Life 2" has more male viewers, " Article 20 " has more mature viewers over 40 years old, and "Bear Infested" has more family audiences in non-first-tier cities. The audience for "Mr. Red Carpet" is relatively large in first-tier cities, and the audience for "Let's Shake the Sun Together" is relatively large among young couples in second-tier cities.
Second, the film’s market lineup is more balanced.In the past few years, the phenomenon of "two companies dominating" was quite obvious in several major schedules. The third place could sometimes differ by more than 20% in market share and film schedule ratio. During this year’s Spring Festival, the box office shares and film schedule ratios of the first four films are relatively close. Without the siphon effect of super blockbusters, it leaves more room for market development.
Third, the types of Spring Festival stalls this year are relatively similar, with more “familiar faces”, but this is also the result of the market’s own selection and self-adjusting. Many actors appeared twice during the Spring Festival this year, and have appeared frequently in film and television dramas in the past year or two, and their screen images are relatively similar. This is due to the desire for stability and failure to break through the comfort zone. In the long run, it will reduce the audience's novelty expectations.
2024 Spring Festival movie attendance curve graph. Photo provided by interviewee
The Paper: We noticed that in the middle of the Spring Festival, the number of screenings of the movie "Article 20" began to increase significantly, and the attendance rate also gradually led the way. New film for the Spring Festival.
Zhi Fina: In terms of arranging films for the Spring Festival this year, the initiative is given to the theater manager. The theater manager will try to arrange films based on which films have a good reputation and high attendance. In previous years, film studios often had some contractual agreements with theaters, so this year's film schedule is mainly determined based on market attendance.
After the second day of the release of "Article 20", the attendance rate has been improving. Naturally, the proportion of subsequent films will also increase accordingly. This is actually a new trend in the industry, which is to let the market exert its initiative and activate the market itself. . The Spring Festival is a "fast battle". Many viewers are low-frequency consumers and often decide to watch movies on the spur of the moment. At this time, it is very important what movies are arranged in the theaters of nearby theaters. Affected by the epidemic in the past few years, some sectors of the industry have a mentality of relying on the weather and waiting for death. This attempt to hand over the initiative of film scheduling to theater managers will help activate the activity of capillaries in the industry and make the entire body healthier. "Article 20" is undoubtedly an excellent film. If more viewers see it, it will also have a good role in promoting social fairness and justice. Its attendance rate is gradually surpassing that, which is behind the recommendation of the audience, which is also what the industry is happy to see.
Withdrawal of the film, "Have the Spring Festival audiences' viewing needs been fully considered?"
The Paper News: On February 14, "Let's Shake the Sun Together" officially announced its withdrawal; on February 16, "Huang Pi: God of Wealth from Heaven" "Cat" and "Mr. Red Carpet" have officially announced their withdrawal; on February 17, the last day of the Spring Festival, "Bajie: The Lower World of the Canopy" officially announced its withdrawal. Half of the eight films scheduled for the Spring Festival this year have been withdrawn. This is the first time in film history that this has happened. Can these withdrawn films arrange their own re-screening times? Does this need to be reported to the State Administration of Film?
Zhi Fina: I think that movies that are not suitable for the Spring Festival are withdrawn. From the perspective of the long-term development of the industry, its warning effect is very valuable. The market decides on its own affairs, which is also the biggest change in the industry in more than a year. This is like opening a restaurant on the street. If you have the money to open a store and you can get a cook, go and open it. If you have more money, open an expensive shop; if you have less money, open a snack bar in a small street. Just go through the industrial and commercial procedures and ensure food safety. The chef's cooking is not as good as other restaurants, or the waiter's attitude is bad, or the diners like spicy food but can't eat the Huaiyang cuisine of your store. If you can't continue to open it and choose to close it, you only need to go to the industrial and commercial department to log out. If it opens on a certain day, whether it is Sichuan cuisine or Huaiyang cuisine, how much Sichuan pepper is used, and what day it closes, it has to go to the government to ask for instructions in the morning and report later. Not to mention this restaurant, the entire street will be unable to do business.
In the past two years since the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, what themes to choose for Spring Festival and summer movies, which films to enter and withdraw from the archives, whether to fully release or partially screen, are all market behaviors, which are determined by market entities based on the film content and audience psychology. Determined by other factors, no administrative permission is required. As long as you get a public release license, it means that the quality content is officially recognized as qualified. Of course, there will be some administrative factors for key films. If the film schedule is too dense and is not conducive to the development of the industry, the industry association should coordinate on its own.
The Paper: Last year, only one film, "China Ping Pong," was withdrawn from the Spring Festival. This year, four movies were withdrawn. The topic continued to ferment after the Spring Festival ended. Some netizens even said, "I am also withdrawing from the Spring Festival." Such a random withdrawal will eventually have a shock to the healthy ecology of the film market. In your opinion, how can we avoid this situation from happening again in the future?
Zhi Feina: This year, 4 out of the 8 films scheduled for the Spring Festival were withdrawn, which is a lot. But it's not for nothing. The core question is, did they fully consider the viewing needs of the Spring Festival moviegoers when announcing the movie schedule?
In terms of individual films, "Bajie: The Lower World of the Canopy" and "Huang Pi: The God of Wealth Cat from Heaven" all showed that they were hastily scheduled, and they rushed in blindly to get a piece of the pie without even keeping up with the content announcement. These brands have absolutely no recognition and failure is expected. In fact, this is not without lessons. The same is true for the 2022 Spring Festival animated film "Little Tiger Dune Heroes" and the 2023 Spring Festival film "Ice, Snow and Youth".
I personally like "Let's Shake the Sun Together". However, as the final film of director Han Yan's "Terminal Illness Trilogy", its theme and content are not suitable for the family-friendly atmosphere during the Spring Festival. When returning home during the Spring Festival, young people have to face relatives urging them to go on blind dates and get married. Its slogan "Shake the sun and eat wedding candy" really dissuades young viewers. Therefore, the film crew admitted that "there was a major decision-making error", which is correct.
I went to see "Mr. Red Carpet" on the morning of the first day of the first lunar month. The film is in-depth and thoughtful, and the creators are very attentive. But even with a big star like Andy Lau, the threshold for watching the movie is still high. Ordinary viewers have nothing to say after watching the movie, and it cannot become a topic. Similar cases include the previous "Assassination of Novelists", "Samurai God Order" and so on.
Before the official announcement of its withdrawal, "Let's Shake the Sun Together" had a box office of over 90 million, and Douban scored 7.9 points
I personally think "Let's Shake the Sun Together" is the highest-quality film in this year's Spring Festival. If the selection and promotion are further improved, If you are more cautious, you may get good results. Now it is adjusted to the Qingming festival on March 30 to fight again, which is more consistent with the story of the movie, but whether there will be a significant reversal at the box office will not be revealed until then. The other three films have only officially announced their withdrawal and have not announced new release dates. There will definitely be greater variables in the future. In any case, the occurrence of such a situation in this spring's schedule requires a high degree of caution when selecting schedules and preparing promotional materials in the future.
The Paper: In your opinion, what kind of movies are suitable for the Spring Festival?
Zhi Fina: Frankly speaking, the Spring Festival period is not a professional period. It must take care of the cultural consumption needs of more than 100 million viewers to the greatest extent. I often say that it is impossible to draw a portrait of the audience during the Spring Festival with existing methods. We do not know the age composition, gender composition, education composition, and income composition of the audience. A large part of the Spring Festival audience is low-frequency viewers. Many of them only watch movies once a year, such as the elderly who occasionally reunite with their children, returnees who go out to work, high school students with heavy academic workload, and those who are in the form of paperwork. civil servants, etc.
This requires that movies released during the Spring Festival must first have highly recognizable labels. Low-frequency viewers pay special attention to the viewing experience. Why should they pay for a completely unfamiliar product? Content that is less likely to "go wrong" is definitely more likely to be selected. Otherwise, it would be awkward to go watch a movie with your parents or children that is not universal, or a movie that requires serious discussion, and walk out of the theater relatively speechless. Why has "Bear Bears" been popular for so many years? Why do Spring Festival movies always feature those familiar comedy stars and even crosstalk actors? The label attributes on them allow viewers to buy tickets with confidence. In your interview with me last year, I talked about the leader who discussed with me that "Bear Bears" is guaranteed to be released during the Spring Festival. This year, he told me that when he saw the number of viewers of "Bear Bears" on the first day of the first lunar month, he felt that I feel "ok" again. In the past two days, I have even been thinking about whether to create a "bear presence index" to observe the Spring Festival period.
The performance of "Bear Infested" during the Spring Festival is as strong as ever.
Secondly, the format cannot be too heavy.Since you have no time to spare, no matter whether you have money or not, you have to go home to celebrate the New Year. It is easy to relax after a hard year, so the Spring Festival period is of course more suitable for comedy, family reunion, and deep family affection. The same is true for the previous "Detective Chinatown" series, as well as "Havoc in Tianzhu", "Monster Hunt 2", "This Killer Is Not So Calm", etc. During the Spring Festival this year, even though Article 20 expresses very serious thoughts, it chose to use various small humors in the daily life of middle-aged men and women to dilute the compassionate atmosphere. The individual law enforcement officers behind the cold laws appear to be gentle and kind-hearted. The road is not far away.
Once again, emotionally it should make it easy for the audience to "get in touch" and have a sense of involvement. "Hello, Li Huanying", "Hot", and the "Flying Life" series are all like this, and the emotional core can arouse the recognition of most viewers.
Then the threshold for artistic expression cannot be too high. Many low-frequency viewers cannot understand the profound science fiction themes and genres that focus on artistic expression. In the 2023 Spring Festival release, "The Wandering Earth 2" lost to "Man Jiang Hong" because ordinary people can understand the costume detective drama.
must "break the circle" in the final announcement. The marketing methods for Spring Festival movies are different from those in daily life. It is necessary to attract high attention from low-frequency viewers. Materials that are easy to spread are sometimes more important than the completion of the film. In this regard, platform-based publicity companies are better and more effective than traditional companies. The promotion of "Hot and Hot" has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. I watched "Article 20" in December. The film can be said to be "profound in thought, exquisite in art, and well-made." The director also tried his best to choose actors that the audience likes to see, so the attendance rate has been bucking the trend these days. rise. But if the overall promotion can be more professional, it should be far more than the current box office.
"If the film ecosystem improves, investors will come back."
The Paper: Discussions surrounding movies during the Spring Festival have also seen many netizens criticizing singer Xue Zhiqian for watching the screen shot of "Flying Life 2". What do you think? This phenomenon?
Zhi Fina: As a result of intellectual creation, movies are clearly protected by copyright laws of various countries and relevant international treaties. This is common knowledge in the world. Article 31 of the "Film Industry Promotion Law of the People's Republic of China" stipulates that "without the permission of the rights holder, no one may make audio or video recordings of movies being screened." The "Interpretation of the Film Industry Promotion Law" published by China Legal Publishing House believes that this article "does not apply to private photography in theaters." Therefore, strictly speaking, Xue Zhiqian's screen shots are not illegal.
Regarding stolen photography, CCTV News commented like this, and Joker Xue forwarded and responded to
. In my opinion, Joker Xue’s original intention in screen photography was good. He wanted to better help promote the film and prove that he had experienced the film before he truly recommended it. But for a knowledge product like movies, this goes against industry common sense.
In recent years, film intellectual property protection has made rapid progress. In 2019, central leaders issued important instructions regarding the high-definition piracy of "The Wandering Earth" during the Spring Festival. In recent years, the National Copyright Administration and the National Film Administration have strengthened cooperation with the Ministry of Public Security and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to continuously strengthen the copyright protection of films in key schedules. Some laws and regulations such as the "Opinions on Strengthening the Protection of Intellectual Property Rights" jointly issued by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council have also been released. In November 2023, the Supreme People's Court issued the "Judicial Recommendation on Strengthening Intellectual Property Protection Services and Promoting High-Quality Development of the Film Industry." During this year's Spring Festival, many viewers also discovered that after the lights were turned off in the theater, they could see Lei Jiayin's anti-theft recording and screen-photographed public service announcements. As a joke, if Joker Xue stars in an anti-piracy and anti-screen-photography public service announcement during the Spring Festival next year, I believe there will be more audience support and the criticism caused by his screen-photography can be resolved.
In the Spring Festival movie, "Hot and Spicy" spoke out and refused to steal
The Paper News: During the Spring Festival, openai released the first Vincent video model sora, which can not only create realistic and imaginative scenes based on text instructions, but also generate A super long video that lasts up to 1 minute and ends in one shot.Last year chatgpt triggered a strike by Hollywood writers. In your opinion, what impact will the breakthrough of Vincent Video technology have on the film industry?
Zhi Feina: On the morning of the sixth day of the first lunar month, my circle of friends were all frightened awake by Open AI. Maybe the world of "Ready Player One" will arrive soon, and the impact on the video industry will undoubtedly become greater and greater. In fact, it is not only the breakthroughs in high-tech that have impacted the film industry, but the changes in the social environment are also worthy of attention - the "four youths" are now popular, that is, "not falling in love, not getting married, not buying a house, and not having children", and the "three no's era" That is, "a sense of powerlessness, meaninglessness, and lack of autonomy." How should the film respond to the changes of the times and these psychological changes of the audience? These issues are real and urgent.
On the other hand, we should also note that the international media group’s pursuit of innovation and change has not slowed down at all, and it has been deploying the global market. Compared with these "aircraft carriers", our film business business model is still traditional and single, just like a cruise ship sailing alone, or even a small sampan, and its ability to resist risks is still fragile. For a film company with mature experience like Lianrui Pictures, "Send You a Little Red Flower" previously received a box office of 1.432 billion yuan, but this time the failure of the early promotion of "Let's Shake the Sun Together" may have a negative impact on the company. causing a greater impact. Just last year, some excellent films were hit by irrational public opinion, causing great trouble to creators and investors. In my opinion, it is better for the industry to be frightened awake by the constantly innovative technology and the more exquisite creations of international peers, rather than being frightened awake by irrational public opinion.
The Paper: The number of films released throughout 2023 can be said to be dizzying, and all the films that have been reserved in the previous two or three years can be said to be released. Many observers are worried that there will be insufficient reserves and "out of bullets" for theatrical films in 2024. What do you think about this?
Zhi Fina: Yes, many domestic films entering the market in 2023 are "stocks" produced during the epidemic. The film supply situation in 2024 will certainly not be as intensive as in 2023, but there is no need to worry too much, because domestic films There are still many high-quality reserves. Large-scale movies such as the highly anticipated series of movies "The Legend of the Condor Heroes: The Greatest Hero", "White Snake: The Floating Life", "Volunteer 2", "Manslaughter 3" and "The Young Lion 2" are all very anticipated. In the past few days, "Decryption", "Jiangyuan Lane", "Thelma and Louise" and "Nothing That Can't Be Solved by a Hot Pot" have been released in the Spring Festival stalls, which have also aroused the interest of many viewers. There are also some films that the market has been waiting for to be released, such as "Peacekeeping Riot Squad" and "Nezha: The Devil Boy Havoc in the Sea".
When there are not enough "bullets", only by not wasting every good movie can we ensure that we can achieve ideal results in 2024. In 2023, many good movies entered the market without being fully prepared. Their box office revenue was not released as it should be, and they did not form a closer emotional connection with the audience. In 2024, every good movie needs to carefully choose its schedule and publicize it well so that the audience can know about it and find it.
The Paper: This year marks the 30th anniversary of the introduction of imported blockbusters. But correspondingly, in recent years, especially last year, imported blockbusters have declined significantly in mainland theaters and are no longer the panacea of the market. What do you think about this?
Zhi Fina: There are many reasons why imported films have been underwhelmed in theaters in mainland China. Starting from March this year, there will be "Dune 2", "Kung Fu Panda 4", "Godzilla vs. Kong 2: Rise of an Empire" and other films. Imported films enter the market. However, due to the six-month strike of Hollywood actors and screenwriters in 2023, the production capacity of imported films itself will be greatly affected. There will not be many large-scale films from neighboring Japan in 2023 and 2024. Therefore, I am afraid that the imported film market will shrink further.
The Paper: Thank you very much, Mr. Zhi, for accepting an exclusive interview with The Paper after the Spring Festival for four consecutive years - the domestic movie box office for the whole year of 2023 will end at 54.915 billion, and in the interview at the beginning of last year, you gave this The estimate is 55 billion yuan, which can be said to be quite accurate.Finally, could you please share your thoughts on the box office situation in 2024?
Zhi Fina: To estimate the annual box office, there are many factors that need to be comprehensively considered, including the macroeconomic environment, the audience's psychological needs for watching movies, the external technology development environment, the development speed of streaming media and other influencing factors, and the film supply of the year must also be added. Comprehensive analysis of the situation. What I want to say is that there are still many uncertainties in 2024, but the four Spring Festival films "Hot", "Flying Life 2", "Article 20" and "Bear Bears: Reversal of Time" have stabilized the first quarter. The basic market is undoubtedly a good start.
Compared with a specific box office value, what is more important is what I emphasized from the beginning. The overall ecological environment of domestic movies is getting better. In other words, we no longer have to worry about two or three big trees sucking up most of the nutrients and sunlight in the savanna ecology. Instead, we see that the film volume on the market is like a forest, with tall trees and low trees. Shrubs, a large number of herbs and fungi conserve water sources and form a recyclable and healthy ecology. As long as the ecosystem is established, our ability to fight against irrational public opinion and force majeure factors will gradually increase. Just like animals will return to the forest as long as the ecology is good, investors will come back, the film market will continue to thrive, and the dream of becoming a powerful film nation will come true.
Our biggest confidence now is that after three years of epidemic, we can withstand any test. Development does not rely on temporary indicators to rise. Development itself is an upward spiral. We must have confidence in the film market.
