Author | Tang Fei
Editor | Liu Jingfeng
The Spring Festival of the Year of the Dragon has begun, and the Spring Festival stalls have also started the "fighting of gods" mode. According to
data, there are a total of 9 new films on the Spring Festival schedule, including family, comedy, romance, drama, animation, etc., which can basically meet the viewing needs of consumers of different ages and preferences. The team lineup behind these 9 films of
is also staggering. In terms of directors alone, it includes many well-known directors such as Zhang Yimou, Ning Hao, Jia Ling, and Han Han. The cast includes actors with box office appeal such as Andy Lau and Shen Teng, as well as popular stars such as Jia Ling, Lei Jiayin, Zhao Liying, and Ma Li, as well as new-generation actors such as Fan Chengcheng, Li Gengxi, and Peng Yuchang.
Guotai Junan Research reported that among the currently scheduled films, in addition to the animated film "Bear Infested: Reverse Time and Space", which has differentiated competitive advantages, " Speeding Life 2" and " Hot", which are predicted to have a box office of 2 billion yuan before the release, "Hot " and " Article 20 " are both starting from the same starting point. The main distributors are Maoyan Entertainment, Taopiaopiao, and Enlight Media. Considering that Enlight Media and Maoyan Entertainment are the same actual controllers, scheduled movie distribution may become The competition between Maoyan and Tao Piao Piao. Since the actual release time of the Spring Festival movies in 2024 is 8 days, 2 days longer than before, under both optimistic and neutral predictions, the total box office is expected to hit a record high, while the relatively pessimistic prediction is likely to be close to the previous high.
However, some people in the industry said that in recent years, the Spring Festival movies have shown an obvious "eighty-eighth rule" - the top two or three films take about 80% of the box office, and the remaining films can only share the remaining small piece of "cake".
sprints to tens of billions in box office
A review of the 2023 movie market can find that the role played by the Spring Festival stalls is becoming more and more important.
The 2023 Spring Festival box office (excluding service fees) is 6.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%. The Spring Festival period, which is actually only released for 6 days, contributed 12.4% of the annual box office, far exceeding the May Day and National Day periods. Second only to the summer vacation which lasts for nearly 60 days. In terms of box office performance, the top three films " ", "The Wandering Earth 2" and "Bear Bears" accounted for 81.3% of the total box office.
's film supply side is also relatively high-quality. From "River Red" to "The Wandering Earth 2" to the "Bear Bears" series, the content supply is relatively diversified. In addition to comedies catering to the Spring Festival atmosphere, there are 6 films in the 2023 Spring Festival period covering 11 themes. Differentiated contents such as suspense and science fiction also gain high reputation.
From the demand side, female users are the main force in the movie market. In 2023, female ticket purchasers accounted for 62% during the Spring Festival, and the proportion of users aged 25-29 and 35 and above has increased for three consecutive years.
Moreover, the proportion of multi-person movie viewing during the 2023 Spring Festival period has increased, highlighting the demand for family fun. The average number of tickets purchased for the Spring Festival in 2023 is 2.02, and the proportion of multiple people watching movies has also increased from 14% in 2018 to 22% in 2023, highlighting the attributes of family gatherings and socializing during the Spring Festival.
The box office of the New Year's Day period that just ended broke the record, and it is also foreseen that there will be sufficient demand for movie viewing this year. The total box office for the New Year's Day 2024 was 1.533 billion, setting a new high for the New Year's Day box office in Chinese film history. The total number of screenings was 1.417 million, setting a new high for the total New Year's Day box office in Chinese film history.
With a “good start” in 2024, most practitioners maintain high expectations for the Spring Festival. Recently, Beacon Professional launched the “2024 Spring Festival Box Office Betting” to film industry practitioners. Judging from the prediction results, the total box office of "Hot and Spicy" directed by Jia Ling is predicted to be as high as 3.221 billion yuan, and the top three are expected to have a box office of more than 7.6 billion yuan.
According to a research report by Guohai Securities, the total box office for the Spring Festival in 2024 is conservatively estimated to reach 9.3 billion yuan, while the neutral estimate and optimistic estimate are 10.4 billion yuan and 11.6 billion yuan respectively, which is expected to be 11.6 billion yuan for the new year. The film market is off to a good start.
On the other hand, average ticket prices are also expected to rebound. The average ticket price during the Spring Festival in 2023 is 52.3 yuan, which is the first time since 2016 (except for 2020) that there has been a decrease. However, according to data from Beacon Professional Edition, the average ticket price in the movie market in 2023 will be 42.28 yuan, an increase of 0.2 yuan from 2022. It is expected that with the start of the 2024 Spring Festival holiday, the average ticket price in the movie market may usher in a new round of slight increases.
Film and Television Company Fairy Fight
Based on the predictions of film critics from major media and the current movie release performance, the three movies "Hot and Furious", "Article 20" and "Flying Life 2" are expected to become the first echelon of this year's Spring Festival. In other words, these three movies will take away 60% or more of the box office.
Excellent box office results are inseparable from many factors such as marketing, publicity, and film arrangement.
Before the Spring Festival, we saw many popular entries such as "Jia Ling lost 100 pounds for the new movie", "Zhao Liying plays a hearing-impaired mother", "Shen Teng becomes the second subject coach" and so on. Promotional materials for Spring Festival movies have also been released on a large scale on Weibo, Douyin, video accounts and other platforms. A theater staff member revealed that "Hot and Spicy" currently has more than 25% of the film schedule, and Zhang Yimou's "Article 20" also has a film schedule of close to 20%.
But on the other hand, there is still the possibility of a "dark horse" coming out of this year's Spring Festival.
Looking back at the Spring Festival releases of the past three years, we can find that there are cases of "counterattack" almost every year. In 2023, "Man Jiang Hong" successfully counterattacked the IP masterpiece "The Wandering Earth 2", and in 2022, "This Killer Is Not So Calm" relied on "laughing" "Fruit" broke out of the siege, and "Hello, Li Huanying" in 2021 created a box office miracle, even surpassing "Detective Chinatown 3" starring Wang Baoqiang at full power.
According to incomplete statistics from the media, the Year of the Dragon Spring Festival films involve more than 60 production and distribution companies, including China Film, Hengdian Film and Television, Wanda Film, Huaqiang Fantawild, Alibaba Pictures and other listed film companies, as well as Happy Mahua, Ting. Key film and television companies such as East Pictures and Zhuoran Pictures.
Among them, Chinese films have participated in 6 films including "Hot", "Article 20" and "Flying Life 2", and are expected to become the biggest winners in this year's Spring Festival. Alibaba Pictures has also participated in a total of four films, including "Hot", "Flying Life 2", "Let's Shake the Sun Together" and "Bear Infested: Reverse Time and Space", and is expected to make "a lot of money". Huaqiang Fantawild's "Bear Bears" series is a typical example of "making a fortune in silence". It has stable quality and has a loyal audience. In the past few years, it has received more than 1 billion in box office during the Spring Festival.
Moreover, during last year’s Spring Festival, there was an obvious downward trend in movie viewing. Due to the "wave of returning home" during the Spring Festival, the market share of Hengdian Cinema City, which has a relatively low distribution of theaters during the Spring Festival, is significantly higher than that of the whole year. During the Spring Festival in 2023, Hengdian Cinema City’s market share increased to 3.85%, exceeding the full-year market share by 0.24 percentage points. This year’s Spring Festival is expected to bring more surprises to consumers in lower-tier markets.
According to the recent performance forecasts for 2023 disclosed by more than ten listed film companies, more than 70% have achieved net profits rising in the same direction or turning losses into profits. Among them, Wanda Film is expected to have a net profit attributable to its parent company of 900-1200 million yuan in 2023, Enlight Media is expected to have a net profit of 410-510 million yuan, China Film is expected to have a net profit of 200 million to 300 million yuan, and Shanghai Film is expected to have a net profit of 122-146 million yuan. , all achieved a year-on-year turnaround from losses to profits.
Multiple positive factors are superimposed, and the overall film market this year is expected to continue last year’s excellent performance.
However, some people believe that in recent years, most of the Spring Festival movies are comedies, and most of them feature "familiar faces." The plot also "changes the soup without changing the medicine", relying on hot memes and jokes to bring laughter, which leads to the content of the film becoming similar and the phenomenon of audience fatigue becoming increasingly obvious. Moreover, there is a lack of big-budget and big-investment blockbusters in this spring’s schedule. In other words, this year’s Spring Festival is difficult to show the overall level of our country’s film industry.
*This article is based on public information and is for information exchange only and does not constitute any investment advice
