Regarding why Zaluzhny was dismissed, according to current reports, the failure of last summer’s counteroffensive must have been an important reason. Politico magazine believed that Zaluzhny did not listen to the Pentagon’s suggestions at the time, and the two sides “had serious differences on how to implement the counteroffensive.” "Tensions", the Pentagon suggested that the Ukrainian army concentrate its forces on the southern front and hit the border with Crimea. Zaluzhny believed that the attack should be launched from multiple directions, which would make it difficult for the Russian army to send reinforcements to different areas.
If we follow the Pentagon’s recommendations, it is unknown whether the Ukrainian army will win the summer counteroffensive and reach the border of Crimea; we only know that as soon as the counteroffensive begins, the Ukrainian army will be in the Russian army’s “sea of mines” Suffered setbacks. In the end, to put it nicely, no breakthrough progress was made. To put it bluntly, the counterattack failed.
After the summer counteroffensive failed, Zaluzhny, as the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, accepted an interview with The Economist without the permission of the Ukrainian government, and declared that the war had "reached a stalemate." This aroused strong dissatisfaction with Ukrainian President Zelensky, who had to use every means to convince the Ukrainian people and supporters that the war had not reached a stalemate, and caused immeasurable harm to the issue of the U.S. Congress’s approval of new military aid to Ukraine. Influence.
In addition, there are some other problems in Zaluzhne, including not agreeing with Ukrainian President Zelensky’s ideas, bypassing the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense to directly discuss military assistance with Western allies; openly opposing the Ukrainian government on the issue of further mobilization, speaking out about the need Mobilizing another 500,000 people is unrealistic as the Ukrainian army's main strategy in 2024 is defense, and it faces a series of unfavorable problems such as economic and military assistance.
The Times quoted Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov as saying that the failure to provide a military plan for 2024 was one of the reasons for Zaluzhny's dismissal. From a series of statements made by Zaluzhny himself after the failure of the summer counteroffensive, it seems that Zaluzhny did not provide a military plan for 2024. Does a general who believes that the war has reached a stalemate still have enough will and willingness to formulate this year's battle plan?
The West reacted very calmly to Zaluzhny's dismissal and Sirskiy taking over as Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Note that the West mentioned here refers to the governments of Western countries. John Kirby, strategic communications coordinator for the White House National Security Council, emphasized that Zelensky, as the supreme commander of the Ukrainian army, "can decide who holds military leadership positions." "This is what civilian control means, and we know this, and we will Working with the leadership of the Ukrainian military, we will continue to work with our Ukrainian colleagues.” At the same time, John Kirby also denied the statement that the change of coaching staff in the Ukrainian army indicated that the situation in Ukraine was "unstable."
As of this writing, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has not spoken to Searsky on the phone, but the Pentagon thinks highly of Searsky, and Deputy Secretary of Defense Celeste Wallander said Searsky Ski is "an experienced and successful commander" and "we will work effectively with General Silski, and we already work with him."
After rumors spread that Zelensky intended to dismiss Zaluzhny, the White House stated many times that the U.S. government would not interfere with the Ukrainian government’s personnel appointments and made this its official position. As for NATO and other Western countries, they have not yet issued an official response to this major personnel change in the Ukrainian army.
However, in public opinion and in Ukraine, there are many doubts and even criticisms about Zelensky's major personnel changes of dismissing Zaluzhny and appointing Sirski as the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army.
Reuters called Zelensky’s decision “a huge gamble after the Russian army gained the upper hand nearly two years after the war broke out.” “Zaluzhine’s dismissal may damage the morale of the Ukrainian army on the front line”; The Washington Post ” stated that Zelensky’s replacement of Zaluzhny with Sirsky was “a dangerous leadership reshuffle that may not be welcomed by the public” and “is expected to trigger negative reactions among frontline troops”; 1 is currently on the Eastern Front A major of the Ukrainian army who fought told the media that Sirsky will obey Zelensky's request and launch more "rash attacks", which will cost more in the current unfavorable environment.
In Ukrainian political circles, allies of former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko strongly criticized this major personnel change, calling it "Zelensky's big mistake" that will bring risks to Ukraine, "We all have to pay for this Mistakes must be paid for"; in addition to opposing Zaluzhny's dismissal, these people also "smeared" Silsky, calling him "the most traditional and old-school Soviet-style general" and criticized Silsky's nationality and educational background. Waiting to feel worried.
However, as another political opponent of Zelensky, Kiev Mayor Vitali Klitschko has shown more restraint. He hopes that the Ukrainian government can prove "the rationality of change", especially in the current situation. Situation: Fierce fighting on the front lines, the need for effective cooperation with supporters and the need to maintain the unity of Ukrainian society.
Zaluzhny's new position is unknown. He is likely to be marginalized and no longer even have actual military command authority. As for Silsky, judging from his performance, he has always been relatively reliable. He has at least achieved two major victories in the defense of Kiev and the counterattack in Kharkov. As for whether he can lead the Ukrainian army to reverse the current situation under various unfavorable conditions. Unfavorable situation, it is too early to draw conclusions now, everything depends on battlefield performance.
2024 is likely to be the most difficult year for Ukraine in this war, and can ultimately determine the outcome of this war. It remains to be seen whether Sirsky, a veteran, can lead the Ukrainian army to survive this year.
