[Text/Malcolm Kayune, Translator/Observer Network Guo Han] As the next presidential election in the United States approaches, the rest of the world is now forced to face a reality: Donald Trump will almost certainly Became the Republican nominee for president and was expected to

[Text/Malcolm Kayune, Translation/Observer Network Guo Han]

As the next presidential election in the United States approaches, other countries around the world are now forced to face a reality: Donald Trump almost He is certain to be the Republican nominee for president and is favored to return to the White House. Things should not be like this: Faced with many scandals and facing several lawsuits trying to put him in jail, Trump should enter 2024 in a politically weak position. But so far, all attempts to thwart Trump have failed. This time, at least six political opponents vying for the Republican primary nomination took turns to challenge him. However, Trump refused to participate in any offline debates, but his approval ratings easily crushed all his opponents.

For many Americans on the left and right, this is almost unthinkable. There seems to be no rational explanation for Trump's popularity, so people have come up with all kinds of fanciful or understatement theories. In the eyes of some people, Trump is like some kind of hypnotist and snake charmer, easily confusing his base of voters. For others, the "explanation" is one sentence from beginning to end: Americans have gone crazy.

But Americans have not fallen into madness, and Trump, who is occasionally booed by loyal supporters at his own campaign rallies, is no master of hypnosis. Compared with the man who stepped off the golden escalator eight years ago and promised to "Make America Great Again" (maga), Trump's appeal in 2024 is completely different. In fact, you rarely even hear it chanted these days. It may seem like a contradiction, but it’s not: As enthusiasm for “maga” ebbs, the power and appeal of the new Trump only increases. He is no longer the man who promised to make America "great again" -- a reason why many American voters still choose to support him.

The Texas National Guard has pulled up barbed wire at the border area. Picture from: Social media

The growing constitutional crisis on the border between Texas and Mexico vividly reflects this change. Greg Abbott, the governor of the Lone Star State, did something very bold recently: He mobilized the Texas National Guard to push federal agents from the U.S. Border Patrol out of some areas. This is a clear violation of the written and unwritten rules in America today, but Abbott insists the migrant crisis at the border is too serious to ignore. When the Biden administration issued a 24-hour ultimatum to the Texas government, demanding concessions and hinting that the federal government would take over the command of the Texas National Guard if the other party did not accept it, nearly half of the governors of the 50 states in the United States publicly asked the Texas government to make concessions. Bert expressed support. Trump also called on every loyal governor on social media to send out the National Guard to support Texas’ efforts to close loopholes at the border and go to his federal government.

Some observers believe that all this is just some kind of political show, a ostentatious performance to gain votes before the upcoming presidential election. But the problem is far more serious than it seems, rooted in a political rupture that failed to heal nearly 200 years ago. In order to introduce this split, it is necessary to first study a similar case outside the United States: how Japan's important Meiji Restoration in the 19th century ended hundreds of years of shogunate rule.

Here is a brief review of history. In the second half of the 15th century, the rule of the Muromachi shogunate in Japan became increasingly disintegrated, and the local feudal lords (daimyo) who held real power began to conquer each other. At the beginning of the 16th century, the central power of the shogunate collapsed and Japan was divided into many smaller, mostly independent feudal territories. This was what later generations called Japan's Warring States Period. This situation lasted for more than a century until a series of daimyo unified most of Japan through war and diplomacy. In 1600 AD, the Sekigahara War finally gave Tokugawa Ieyasu the power to dominate Japan. He then established the Tokugawa Shogunate, whose rule lasted until 1868 AD.

The reason why this part of Japanese history is relevant to the United States today is that, in many ways, what happened in 1868 is a continuation of the legacy of 1600.Not every powerful daimyo supported Tokugawa Ieyasu in the Sekigahara War, and those daimyo families who were on the wrong side (or tried to stand aside) were stained for the next 250 years. They became the so-called "gaijin daimyo" and were considered politically unreliable, and their descendants could never hold high positions within Japan's bureaucracy.

Paintings reflecting the War of Sekihara (today's Gifu Prefecture, Japan) Source: Sekihara Town Historical and Folk Museum

However, by the mid-19th century, Japan's social structure was no longer stable. As the samurai class became increasingly poor and the civilian class became richer, Japan faced a huge social crisis. The shogunate was forced to open up trade with the West, which caused severe inflation and economic instability. The Japanese were also unable to resist the advanced military technology of foreign invaders. The tyranny of foreigners on Japanese soil in particular sparked outrage until it sparked the Meiji Restoration. However, with the outbreak of the "revolution", grievances that had been shelved since 1600 resurfaced, and the most active daimyo who rose up against the Tokugawa Shogunate came from the Mori, Date, Shimazu and Uesugi families: in short In other words, the losers of 1600. 250 years have passed since the Sekigahara War, but those people have not forgotten the humiliation of the past.

When the Civil War broke out between the northern states of the United States and the Confederacy, the core issue of dispute between the two sides was the survival of slavery as an economic model. That's true, but the two sides also disagree on some more fundamental issues. The southern states of the United States firmly believe that the system formed since the founding of the United States of America should be that the federal government serves state governments, not the other way around. They had no interest in extending slavery to the North, they just wanted to "get away." At that time, the southern states of the United States did claim that they had the right to secede from the Union if they wished.

These differences of opinion over the nature of America's founding, the true role of the federal government, and the prerogatives enjoyed by the states were never truly resolved. As in Japan, overwhelming political power can effectively suppress disagreement, but this will never convince those with opposing views to abandon their views.

The major political changes that the United States has experienced since its founding also highlight this point. The United States should not have become an "empire" with hundreds of overseas military bases around the world. The United States should not launch aggression everywhere, or invite people from all over the world to come in, or act as the world's police and overthrow governments everywhere, whether left-wing or right-wing. This open secret lies at the heart of the American empire: it should never exist. But the empire does exist today, and for a long time the opposing view was politically and militarily meaningless in the debate about what America should essentially be, but that is clearly changing. As Texas sends in its National Guard to plug holes at the U.S. border, they are also slowly unleashing old grievances that the U.S. can only bury but never resolve.

After the federal government asked Abbott to make concessions, he issued an open letter defending himself. The letter was very carefully worded and was written specifically to revive an old dispute. Citing the words of James Madison and Alexander Hamilton, Abbott accused the Biden administration of violating the Constitution by abandoning its responsibility to protect states. As the United States faced an unprecedented immigration crisis, the Biden administration stood aside and effectively refused to defend Texas from an "invasion." Since the federal government has failed to assume this most basic responsibility, the responsibility for exercising the highest legal right of self-defense has returned to the shoulders of Texas. Therefore, Abbott is doing what the U.S. Constitution allows (or even requires) him to do, which is Defend Texas.

Training photos of the 13th Virginia (Confederate Army) Light Artillery Battalion during the American Civil War. Picture from: U.S. National Archives and Records Administration

In the United States, citing the Constitution to defend personal actions is nothing new. But a careful reading of Abbott's letter will reveal that he was not citing a "modern version" of the U.S. Constitution. That’s not the document used today to legitimize transgender rights, diversity and inclusion initiatives, or the federal school lunch program.The Constitution Abbott cites belongs to an America from an older era: long before the American Empire and the American Civil War.

Just like Japan can bury a more difficult problem for more than 200 years, only to have these problems reappear with the fury of revenge after the national economy collapses and the military is depleted, the United States also locks most of its serious contradictions in the closet inside. However, this approach only works when the domestic situation is stable, and today the United States is witnessing the disintegration of its imperial power. Federal government debt is exploding, inflation is ruining people's lives, and America's military supremacy is slipping. Americans overall no longer trust their own government: They believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, the economy is in terrible shape, and they increasingly see other Americans as enemies rather than fellow citizens with whom they disagree.

Even before Abbott awakened the ghosts of Madison and Hamilton to defend the Texas National Guard's actions against the federal government at Eagle Pass, the specter of the American Civil War had returned to the public consciousness. middle. Statues of Civil War figures, including those of the Founding Fathers and former presidents, have increasingly become flashpoints in a real political and cultural battle. Many states in the United States are experiencing a low-intensity "war" on American history, but the removal and destruction of these statues can only serve one purpose: to strengthen the resolve of the disaffected and draw a clear line in the sand. front.

Consider how, in late 2023, the statue of Confederate General Robert E. Lee was removed from the monument in Charlottesville, underwent “decapitation,” and was then melted down into ore to be used for carving New artwork. It is said that the meaning of this is to destroy the past and create a newer and better future. What happened next is telling: Photos of the melted, red-hot mugshot of Lee's statue began to go viral on the Internet, and were immediately embraced by conservatives as a symbol of resistance. Far from destroying the ghosts of the American Civil War, the desecration of this statue has awakened them from their long slumber—which will only further exacerbate America’s growing divide over “us” versus “them.”

The title of the New York Times article commenting on the Robert E. Lee statue incident: "America's most controversial statue succumbed to the crucible."

Now, we can return to the significance of Trump's candidacy and why so many Americans People will vote for him even in 2024. If one ignores the rather flimsy slander that many critics have leveled at Trump, it is clear that Trump's underlying message in 2016 was one of hope. At that time, the United States fell into decadence and launched endless wars based on a lie. The things that the U.S. dollar could buy were not as good as before. Of course: it’s all true, and Trump claims he’s the only candidate brave enough to admit it publicly. By his own account, he is also the only one who can solve these problems. America was great once; vote for Trump and America will be great again.

This desire basically does not exist now, and it is not a theme keyword of Trump's campaign. Making "America" ​​great again in 2024 doesn't make much sense, because it is becoming increasingly clear that there is no coherent "America" ​​capable of becoming greater. In fact, there is a very different America today, with radically different and irreconcilable conflicting views on what the country's basic political system should be. This was clearly the case when America was going through its bloody civil war. At that time, a certain faction of the United States overwhelmed the voices of all competitors simply because it achieved victory on the battlefield. But now, as the American empire declines, more and more people believe it is hopeless. In other words, suddenly the old rules no longer apply: old grievances that had been hidden and obscured by a century of military and economic dominance are quickly becoming relevant again.

As a result, it is now an open question whether the federal government can win in a contest with Texas and other places.Many are calling on Biden to take over command of the Texas National Guard and order their withdrawal, which is exactly what happened in the United States when the segregation controversy erupted half a century ago. However, when 25 other US governors announced their support for Texas (some even promised to send their state's National Guard as support), the Biden administration could not guarantee that it would prevail.

However, even if this standoff over a small patch of land on the Texas border ends without a resolution, as it may eventually, the problem will not be truly resolved. When an American state openly defies the will of the federal government and reasserts political rights forgotten centuries ago, it can be almost impossible to pretend it never happened. If Biden wins re-election, this kind of public defiance of the federal government will only become more common. And if Trump wins, Democrats may be more fervent in their defense of states' rights than Republicans. No matter what, obstructionism and paralysis will become synonymous with American politics in the days leading up to the 2024 election and long after.

In this case, why can Trump keep winning? Although his shortcomings and failures are well known, what is the "secret sauce" that makes people want to rely on him so much? It’s not that Trump promised to make America great again where it is today, not at all. Trump has no intention of strengthening hundreds of overseas military bases, solving the US military’s recruitment crisis, or ensuring that the United States can successfully fight a few more “never-ending wars.” The empire is now probably hopeless, and almost everyone can now feel that some kind of massive collapse is about to happen. And when this empire really collapses, when that "America" ​​sweeps away all competitors just like Tokugawa Ieyasu pacified all the other daimyo in Sekigahara, what will follow will be a war about the future: Americans with very different identities. War between people.

Trump in 2024 is completely different from Trump in 2016. Eight years ago, he was expected to fix something that was clearly falling apart. Nowadays, people have no reason to support him: they believe that one day in the future, when the United States falls into self-harm, Trump will be the one who truly fights for "their America."

Speaking of hope, the current outside world’s expectations for Trump’s prospects for participating in the third election are not particularly optimistic. But is this idea crazy and irrational? Absolutely not.

(The original article was published on the British unherd news review website on January 29. The original title: "After maga, a new Trump rises.")

This article is an exclusive manuscript of the Observer Network, The content of the article is purely the author's personal opinion and does not represent the platform's opinion. It may not be reproduced without authorization, otherwise legal liability will be pursued. Follow Observer.com on WeChat guanchacn and read interesting articles every day.