It is difficult to change a person's habits, even top fund managers are no exception. Liu Gesong of Guangfa Fund, who has always liked to bet on the track, chose to increase his position in photovoltaics in the fourth quarter of last year.
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Five photovoltaic stocks among the top ten heavy holdings
According to Oriental Fortune Choice data, as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, Liu Gesong was managing 6 funds. Five of the top ten heavy holdings based on total asset size were photovoltaic concept stocks. , among which Sungrow is the third largest holding, accounting for 8.83% of the stock position, an increase of 1.22 percentage points from the third quarter of last year; JA Solar Technology is the fifth largest holding, accounting for 8.71% of the stock position, an increase of 0.34 percentage points from the third quarter of last year. percentage points; Trina Solar and JinkoSolar ranked as the sixth and seventh largest holdings respectively, accounting for 7.59% and 6.29% of stock positions, an increase of 3.67 percentage points and 5.36 percentage points compared with the third quarter of last year, and the increase in positions was the most obvious.
Regardless of the proportion of the top ten heavily held stocks or the intensity of increasing positions, Liu Gesong is determined to capitalize on the rebound of photovoltaics.
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is good at seizing turning points to adjust positions and plays ruthless roles.
Looking back on Liu Gersong's positions in recent years, although he has never strayed away from the personality of a track player, unlike CEIBS Grant who only focuses on medical care and Noah Cai Songsong who only favors semiconductors, Liu Gersong has always focused on high-end products. The manufacturing industry mainly invests in new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, biomedicine, etc. The general direction of the industry is concentrated, but there is no single bet, and the position and stock exchange are relatively ruthless. Buying is straightforward and selling is firm.
Take the Guangfa Small Cap Fund, which Liu Gesong has managed the longest, as an example. From the first quarter of 2020 to the second quarter of 2022, Kangtai Biotech has been among the top ten heavy holdings for a long time. From 2020 to 2021, it is mostly among the top five heavy holdings. Among them, many It also became the top holding stock in the first quarter. Among the top ten holding stocks from the third quarter report of 2022 to the fourth quarter report of 2023, Kangtai Biologics did not appear again, and there were no other biopharmaceutical stocks.
corresponds to the trend of Kangtai Biotech. It can be seen that the band with the largest increase in the secondary market coincides with the time when Liu Gesong took a heavy position. After his large-scale selling, the secondary market price of Kangtai Biotech also entered a long-term downward shock. During this period, the biopharmaceutical industry experienced major changes in demand for epidemic vaccines, which had an impact on the performance of listed companies. It can be seen from this example that Liu Gesong attaches great importance to the study of industry cycle turning points.
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Betting on the industry requires market lottery
This time, with the large-scale addition of photovoltaic positions, can you buy the right turning point of the industry?
Looking purely from the perspective of industry fundamentals, the photovoltaic industry is not as bad as market expectations. For example, Sungrow has forecast a non-net profit deduction of 3.386 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 170%-200%.
Moreover, overcapacity of upstream raw materials has led to a rapid decline in prices, enhancing expectations for enhanced profitability of midstream companies. JinkoSolar and Trina Solar, which Liu Gesong has increased the most, are the leading manufacturers of photovoltaic modules. The shipment volume of these two companies in 2023 will both exceed 70gw, ranking among the top ten in the industry.
The fundamental data and industry logic seem to be correct, but market confidence and sentiment are difficult to predict. Liu Gesong also admitted in the 2023 Quarterly Report, “The net value performance of the product is far behind our expectations at the beginning of the year. In addition to the differences between us and the market’s expectations in the product-heavy industry, we also observed the current market situation. Pessimism has triggered an overreaction of the stock prices of most high-quality assets to pessimistic expectations of fundamentals."
This passage is a bit confusing to read, so Uncle Wolf will give an abbreviated version directly - the heavy-weighted industries do not meet the market's taste.
As a professional institutional investor, studying fundamentals is fundamental, but market prices do not entirely depend on fundamentals. Market sentiment and taste preferences will have an important impact on prices. Depressed market sentiment will keep stock prices undervalued for far longer than investors can bear. Market pricing may not be rational, but it does affect market value.
Because it overemphasized the judgment of fundamentals and ignored market factors, Liu Gesong has continued to have negative returns in the past three years and underperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by more than 10 percentage points, which means that he has heavily invested in the market and led the decline in the industry.
Liu Gesong is very confident in betting on photovoltaics this time, but the decision-making power needs to be left to the market.
(Tip: Investment is risky, opinions are for reference only and not used as a basis for decision-making.)
Source: Laolang Finance
