After the market closed on January 23, Li Bei, a well-known fund manager known as the "Financial Goddess" and the "Head of Banxia Investment", released his latest views on the official Weibo of Banxia Investment, saying that he was ready to fight a protracted war. And responded to the issue that the net value of its products fell to the warning line.
In addition, Li Bei admitted that he "made the mistake of quick victory and was not cautious and patient enough." At the same time, he also introduced that his holdings are mainly divided into real estate stocks and real estate chains, broad-based broad-based indexes, and high-dividend assets.
Although the net value of the product has dropped and she has reduced her position, she still believes that "investors do face historical opportunities."
has three major arrangements for product retracement
Li Bei said in the article that the decline of Banxia macro-hedging this year was greater than that of the CSI 300 and less than the CSI 500. The largest retracement since the high point in the middle of last year reached 25%. "It is indeed the largest retracement in my history. I am also mentally prepared for this."
Li Bei also responded in the article that "one of Banxia's funds fell to 0.84, touching the warning line."
Previously, there was news in the market that the net value of Li Bei’s private equity product, Banxia Yongtai Macro No. 2 product, hit the warning line. The relevant announcement of
shows that due to the recent large fluctuations in the securities market, as of January 8, 2024, the net value of Banxia Yongtai Macro No. 2 Private Securities Investment Fund was 0.8455, which was lower than the early warning line of 0.85 agreed in the contract. The relevant terms of the contract are: the fund warning line is the net value of the fund share of 0.85 yuan. If the net value of fund shares on day t is higher than the stop-loss line and not higher than the warning line, the fund manager shall alert all fund share holders of the risk within 2 working days after day t by means of phone calls, text messages and other communication methods.
Li Bei said that she originally thought it was not a big deal. The fund launched 2 years ago fell by more than 10%, which is relatively small compared to the industry.
Li Bei said that the early warning line is not a stop loss line. For funds that fall to the early warning line, they have a mature risk control plan. Five dividing lines are set between the early warning line and the stop loss line. The decline in net value will be a trapezoid. If the position coefficient is reduced, a rebound in net worth will correspond to a trapezoidal increase, and it is "basically impossible for the product to reach the stop loss line."
As for the sharp retracement of products, he has three risk control measures.
First of all, in terms of personal financial arrangements, there are no liabilities. Most of the assets are placed in the fund, but there is still a sum of cash left for yourself and your family, enough to spend 20 years at the current standard of living.
Secondly, in terms of fund investment, I set an internal risk control target for myself, with a retracement of 15%, and required that the upper limit of the risk budget be significantly lowered after 15%, giving myself a hard shackle to prevent complete loss of control.
"This yoke does not guarantee that it will not fall completely later, but at least it can significantly control the speed." Li Bei said.
Finally, in terms of the company's business development, it does not aggressively expand the scale when the wind is favorable, does not proactively market at high points, and does not expand the number of team members too quickly. Every time the scale reaches a higher level, it will proactively close the market and consolidate operations and investment research.
"In fact, in April last year we did take the initiative to close the market as soon as we reached a certain level." Li Bei said.
"I will correct mistakes and stop losses, and continue to learn and improve, but I never doubt myself. I like this job. I always believe that I will achieve good investment performance in the long term, and I always believe that I will be the best investor in China." One person will not change due to a three-quarter retracement, and I will use the next few decades to prove this."
"Investors are indeed facing historical opportunities."
Li Bei admitted that he had indeed made a mistake in the past few months. The mistakes of the theory of victory include not being cautious enough and not patient enough, and not having a deep understanding of the response mechanism of short- and medium-term policies. is ready for a protracted war before seeing a clear signal on the right. The first is to defend well and preserve strength.
In the fourth quarter of last year, Li Bei bought 10% of real estate stocks and building materials stocks, but stopped losses at the beginning of the year.
Li Bei said that at the end of last year, her portfolio consisted of three parts - the offensive real estate stocks and real estate chains, the mainstay broad-based broad-based index, and the defensive high-dividend category.
Regarding real estate stocks and real estate chains, Li Bei believes that "continued decline cannot be ruled out." Most of these positions were basically closed and stopped last week.Wait until real estate sales pick up and housing prices stabilize before buying again.
Regarding the broad-based broad-based index dominated by the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Li Bei believes that its current valuation is near the lowest level in history. In the context of continued large-scale subscription of funds for the 300ETF, the downside risk is limited. You can continue to hold it.
As for the high-dividend assets that have exploded this year, Li Bei said that its current dividend index pb is only 0.6 times, pe is only 5.5 times, and the dividend yield is 6.5%. "The absolute valuation is still very low historically."
"Because the asset shortage is still one of the main contradictions this year, insurance will still be the main net inflow of funds this year. Even if the nominal economic growth does not pick up, high-dividend categories should still be able to obtain absolute returns this year. If nominal GDP rebounds, Then the procyclical type of high dividends will also contribute to upward elasticity. It is a variety that has both offense and defense." She said.
Although the stock market has been falling for a long time in the past period and he has "tactically reduced his position," Li Bei said that he is still optimistic about the market in the long term and emphasized that "investors are indeed facing historical opportunities."
"I still believe that a once-in-20-year bull market will still come, and it won't be too far away, but it may take several more months or quarters for the bottom shock to differentiate." Li Bei wrote.
According to the company’s official website, Li Bei graduated from Peking University’s Yuanpei College with a bachelor’s degree and a graduate degree from Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management. She has 10 years of experience in the fund management industry. He once served as a special account investment manager at Bank of Communications Schroeder Fund Management Co., Ltd., and as an investment director and fund manager at Shanghai Honghu Investment Management Co., Ltd.
public information shows that Shanghai Banxia Investment Management Center (Limited Partnership) was established in August 2015 and registered as a private securities investment fund manager with the Asset Management Association in November 2017. The company’s main shareholder and actual controller is Li Bei.
In December 2017, Banxia Investment issued and registered the first batch of private equity fund products with macro hedging strategies. In mid-2022, the scale of management exceeded the 10 billion mark in one fell swoop, and Li Bei became the industry's first female private equity manager with 10 billion yuan.
(This article does not constitute investment advice, and you are responsible for operating at your own risk)
editor | Cheng Peng Du Bo
proofread | Wang Yuelong
cover image source: Li Bei Weibo
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