In terms of box office, word-of-mouth, market size, discussion and other dimensions, the S-level 2023 summer schedule has achieved S++ results, bringing many new shocks to the film and television media field. In the blink of an eye, the end of the year and the Spring Festival are here again. This is destined to be the most important time for gods to fight. How should we look at it?
One or six blockbusters have been finalized for the Spring Festival, and the film companies behind them are dismantled.
According to a report by the Beijing Evening News, after the strong rebound of the New Year's Day movie market, people are full of enthusiasm for the upcoming Spring Festival. Sure enough, six new films were announced to be added to the Spring Festival schedule, and the market atmosphere was suddenly heated up. The six new films are "Article 20", "It's Hot", "Let's Shake the Sun Together", "Flying Life 2", "Mr. Red Carpet" and "Bear Infested: Reverse Time and Space". Judging from the current situation, except for "Let's Shake the Sun Together", the other five films all have comedy elements.
Judging from the box office, the total box office for the 2023 Spring Festival is 6.758 billion yuan, and the 2023 box office champion "Man Jiang Hong" (4.54 billion yuan) and "The Wandering Earth 2" (4.03 billion yuan) were born. This also means that if this year’s Spring Festival is to exceed the performance of the same period last year, at least two blockbuster movies will be needed. China Merchants Securities believes that as more films are announced to be scheduled for the Spring Festival, the Spring Festival period is expected to continue the box office momentum of the New Year's Day period. It is recommended to pay attention to: Alibaba Pictures, which has leading advantages in ticketing and publicity and distribution business; China Literature Group, a participating producer of "Hot and Spicy"; Enlight Media, which is the main investor and controller of "Article 20"; participated in the production of "Flying Life 2" Bona Pictures, which has a relatively rich follow-up film list; Chinese films that participated in the production of "Bear Bears: Reversal of Life" and "Flying Life 2"; leading theater brands Wanda Film and Happy Blue Ocean, Hengdian Film and Television, and Jinyi Film and Television.
2. How powerful are the Spring Festival films? Comedy content may be the first appeal
A careful study of the six Spring Festival blockbusters shows that this year's Spring Festival blockbusters are very competitive. Judging from the current market popularity, "Hot and Spicy" with Jia Ling's slimming as the highlight is undoubtedly the most popular in the market, and can be said to lead the audience. Other films are also full of gunpowder. We might as well analyze it in detail:
"Hot" Jia Ling used "lost 100 pounds" to promote the movie "Hot" directed by her. Hot search data shows that "Hot" "Spicy and Hot" has far more hot searches on the entire Internet than the Spring Festival movies of the same period. The movie is produced by Xinli Media, China Film and Alibaba Pictures, directed by Jia Ling, starring Jia Ling, Lei Jiayin, Zhang Xiaofei, etc., as Jia Ling in " "Hello, Li Huanying" is a film directed again. Many people expect it to achieve the same high box office as its predecessor, and may even reach the former's 5.4 billion record. CICC, a well-known investment bank, directly stated in its research report that the starring cast has a high reputation and is expected to bring a wider audience base to the film. The popularity of its main creative staff continues to rise, attracting widespread attention. It believes that the film has high The popularity of the film may give it a prominent advantage in the schedule, especially the strong cooperation between China Film and Alibaba Pictures, which has laid a solid foundation for its continued popularity. CICC gave a high box office forecast of 2.4 billion, while Huaxin Securities gave a box office forecast of 2.2 billion.
"Article 20" is another masterpiece of Zhang Yimou, starring Lei Jiayin, Ma Li, Zhao Liying, etc. It has multiple elements such as plot, comedy, and family. The production company is Enlight Media, China Film, Hengdian Film and Television, etc. As Zhang Yimou's third film to enter the Spring Festival, "Article 20" has gradually gained popularity. The core story of this film revolves around "showing the justice and humanity behind Article 20 of the Criminal Law on 'Legitimate Defense'". Judging from the recently released clips of Zhao Liying playing a deaf-mute crying scene, this film will definitely have strong realism. color. On this basis, how much room is left for comedy elements? I believe this is also a big challenge for the national teacher.
"Flying Life 2" is a comedy film directed by Han Han and starring Shen Teng, Fan Chengcheng and Yin Zheng. It is also backed by Tingdong Pictures, Alibaba Pictures (Taopiao Piao), Maoyan, Bona, China Film, Film and television media “giants” such as Happy Mahua.There are many well-known starring actors, coupled with the co-production of many well-known film companies, as well as the accumulation of IP reputation of the previous work, the market space of this sequel will be further expanded. Debon Securities believes that it has the potential to hit the box office of 1 billion, which also gives the film more room for imagination in the capital market.
"Mr. Red Carpet" is Ning Hao's second film after "Crazy Stone" and "Crazy Alien". It is directed by Ning Hao and stars Andy Lau, Shan Liwen and Rima Xidan. It is produced by Huanxi Media and Bad Monkey Culture. . It has the characteristics of Ning Hao's absurd comedy, and it is also a quite interesting work. Huaxin Securities directly stated that it is expected to hit a box office target of 400-800 million.
"Let's Shake the Sun Together" is a warm realism-themed film directed by Han Yan and starring Peng Yuchang and Li Gengxi. It is produced by Lianrui, China Film and Hengdian Film and Television. The film is the final chapter of director Han Yan's "Life Trilogy", which was preceded by "A Little Red Flower for You" and "Get Out!" Tumor King". As the only non-comedy movie in this year's Spring Festival, "Let's Shake the Sun Together" is considered to still have certain market competitiveness. Huaxin Securities has given a box office forecast of about 600 million.
Family comedy is bound to remain the first choice for viewing during this year’s Spring Festival. From the perspective of comedy content, "Hot and Spicy" has the most lovable national actress at the moment, and "Flying Life 2" shocks its peers with its "containing content". The comedy content of these two films is relatively stable; "Article 20" What is the comedy content of "Mr. Red Carpet" and whether the absurd humor of "Mr. Red Carpet" can be completed with high quality are the keys to these two films hitting the box office ceiling; can "Let's Shake the Sun Together" subvert this so-called market law? Or there is still a chance. Of course, despite the turmoil in the market, "Bear Infested" is still an undefeated god in its own field.
3. How to watch the Spring Festival movie war?
Although the competition for this Spring Festival stall is fierce, some features have begun to become increasingly prominent. The Spring Festival stall not only carries the audience’s concentrated release of entertainment and cultural consumption, but is also an important support point for the annual performance of the Chinese film industry. Specifically:
First of all, family movie-watching needs have been fully met. As the most popular genre, comedy can easily create a cheerful and warm atmosphere, bringing the audience closer to each other through laughter. At the same time, the characteristics of sinking into the market and returning home are intertwined. During the Spring Festival, a large-scale population return home brings significant box office growth opportunities to movie theaters in third- and fourth-tier cities and rural areas. Audiences in these regions have stronger emotional demands for family reunion. In addition, the movie-watching activity itself has become a new form of family gathering and socializing during the Spring Festival. Movies are not only entertainment products, but also a cultural carrier that connects family emotions and enhances community cohesion. Therefore, it is still well-founded to evaluate the box office ceiling of this year’s Spring Festival movies based on the degree of completion of family comedies.
Secondly, the market competition pattern behind it has gradually become more prominent. Although movie box office differences are large, the competitive landscape among leading companies remains relatively stable. China Film Group has participated in "Hot", "Article 20", "Flying Life 2" and "Bear Infested: Reverse Time and Space", and Alibaba Pictures has also focused on betting on "Hot" and "Flying Life 2" " and other popular family comedies. "Major producers" with clear targeted layout will undoubtedly become the most eye-catching enterprises in the capital market.
Third, the mutually beneficial and win-win trend between content and investors is very obvious. In today's era where content is king, the artistic value and audience reputation of a film are undoubtedly the key factors that determine the success or failure of the box office. In addition to content creation, leading companies are also committed to extending the industry chain and making in-depth layouts, such as increasing film exposure through pre-sales, joint productions, online and offline marketing linkages, etc., and also in Africa. In terms of ticket income, we will explore aspects such as derivatives development and advertising placement to broaden profit channels. This kind of strategic game makes the competition in the Spring Festival movie market more three-dimensional and diversified.
The Spring Festival movie war is not only a contest that tests film art innovation and quality control, but also a comprehensive competition among major film companies in terms of brand building, market segmentation, resource integration, etc. Many companies are gradually playing an increasingly important role in it. Important role, but in this era where content is king, good content is always the first competitiveness. During this Spring Festival period, we have reason to believe that no matter what corporate layout, truly high-quality and emotional movies will definitely be recognized and supported by the audience.
Debon Securities said that looking forward to the 2024 Spring Festival, on the one hand, the recovery of movie-watching habits is expected to continue and maintain the basic base of movie-watching groups; on the other hand, the popularity of publicity has gradually begun to spread. It is recommended to pay attention to the targets with rich follow-up film lists, as well as leading theaters. recommends paying attention to the A-share market Enlight Media, Hengdian Film and Television, Shanghai Film, Wanda Film, Bona Pictures, Huayi Brothers; the Hong Kong stock market Alibaba Pictures, China Literature Group, China Ruyi, etc.
