Home > entertainment > [Text/Observer.com columnist Liancheng Yiju] At the end of the 19th century, the famous British physicist Baron Kelvin said in a speech: "The building of physics has been completed, and only some small details need to be improved." At the same time, he also It is mentioned that "

[Text/Observer.com columnist Liancheng Yiju] At the end of the 19th century, the famous British physicist Baron Kelvin said in a speech: "The building of physics has been completed, and only some small details need to be improved." At the same time, he also It is mentioned that "

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[Text/Observer.com columnist Liancheng Yiju]

At the end of the 19th century, the famous British physicist Baron Kelvin said in a speech: "The building of physics has been completed, and only some small details need to be improved." At the same time, he It was also mentioned that "there are two dark clouds in the sky of physics". Later, we learned that these two dark clouds heralded a crisis in classical physics, but they also gave birth to two major revolutions in physics in the 20th century: the theory of relativity and quantum mechanics, which gave us a qualitative leap in our understanding of the natural world.

Since the birth of Chinese cinema in 1905, after nearly 120 years of development, it has grown into the world's second largest movie box office market and the world's largest movie projection market (total number of screens and theaters) - the building has been completed, but this The foundation of this building seems to be unstable. At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, among the many summaries congratulating the "pleasant" box office performance of Chinese movies, you may need to look up and take a look at the few dark clouds hanging over the Chinese movie market and listen to some "irritating" opinions. the sound of.

Perhaps in the not-too-distant future, only when these dark clouds are dissipated will the Chinese film market truly usher in a qualitative leap.

The first dark cloud: the continued loss of audiences is like arterial bloodletting

According to data released by the National Film Administration, the box office for the whole year of 2023 will reach 54.915 billion yuan, roughly equivalent to the level of 2017 (55.911 billion yuan), reaching the peak in 2019 ( 64.266 billion yuan). Considering that 2023 is the first year of complete opening after the epidemic, it is indeed not easy to return to such a level.

But if we look at the dimension of the total number of moviegoers, we will find that the situation is extremely serious. The total number of moviegoers in 2023 is only 1.299 billion, which is roughly equivalent to the level in 2015 (1.260 billion). Compared with the peak period in 2019 (1.727 billion), the gap is very obvious, which means that there may be about 1/4 The audience has been lost, which is a huge proportion.

[Text/Observer.com columnist Liancheng Yiju] At the end of the 19th century, the famous British physicist Baron Kelvin said in a speech: 'The building of physics has been completed, and only some small details need to be improved.' At the same time, he also It is mentioned that ' - Lujuba

Image source: Beacon Research Institute

Audiences will always be the cornerstone of the film market and the main body of film consumption activities. When there is a large loss of audiences, it is as serious as arterial bleeding. If the bleeding is not stopped in time, the growth of the market will be unsustainable. , shrinking will become an inevitable trend.

What is even more worrying is that the core audience group of theater movies has also experienced a very significant decline!

According to market data insights released by Maoyan Movies, the number of viewers who watched 6 or more movies in 2019 was approximately 22.3 million. These people can be called a group of serious movie fans, and the number of viewers who watched 3-5 movies was approximately 39.4 million. It can be called a moderate group of movie fans, and together they form the core audience of the movie market. However, in 2023, the number of heavy movie fans has shrunk to 9.75 million, and the number of moderate movie fans has dropped to 26.52 million.

[Text/Observer.com columnist Liancheng Yiju] At the end of the 19th century, the famous British physicist Baron Kelvin said in a speech: 'The building of physics has been completed, and only some small details need to be improved.' At the same time, he also It is mentioned that ' - Lujuba

Image source: Maoyan Research Institute

Therefore, a large part of the reason why the box office in 2023 can reach a height of nearly 55 billion is due to the obvious increase in ticket prices.

According to the statistics in the figure below, the average ticket price in 2023 has risen from 37.1 yuan to 42.3 yuan, an increase of 14%. And it needs to be emphasized that this is only the increase in average ticket prices. If the statistics of ticket prices for prime events are concentrated, the increase will be more obvious.

[Text/Observer.com columnist Liancheng Yiju] At the end of the 19th century, the famous British physicist Baron Kelvin said in a speech: 'The building of physics has been completed, and only some small details need to be improved.' At the same time, he also It is mentioned that ' - Lujuba

Image source: Beacon Research Institute

Obviously, high ticket prices will have a significant impact on the audience's decision-making to watch movies, and will cause huge obstacles to the increase in movie-going attendance. Raising ticket prices has become a way for many film studios and movie theaters to quench their thirst. Some roadshows have even sold for prices comparable to concert tickets.

Although these shows can indeed rely on the appeal of top stars to ensure attendance and boost box office figures, this also reflects the film industry's mentality of pursuing short-term profits and ignoring the audience's resistance to the increasingly high ticket prices. psychology.

[Text/Observer.com columnist Liancheng Yiju] At the end of the 19th century, the famous British physicist Baron Kelvin said in a speech: 'The building of physics has been completed, and only some small details need to be improved.' At the same time, he also It is mentioned that ' - Lujuba

Coincidentally, the digital 2d minimum release price of "The Beekeeper", the first imported movie in 2024, is also contrary to the norm for foreign language movies. It has rarely increased from the regular 20 yuan to 30 yuan.

You must know that in the past, as long as it was an imported film, whether it was a Hollywood blockbuster or a Japanese cartoon, the lowest release price was almost 20 yuan. For example, the digital 2D version of "Fast and Furious 10", the box office champion of China's imported movies in 2023, had the lowest price The issue price is only 20 yuan.

[Text/Observer.com columnist Liancheng Yiju] At the end of the 19th century, the famous British physicist Baron Kelvin said in a speech: 'The building of physics has been completed, and only some small details need to be improved.' At the same time, he also It is mentioned that ' - Lujuba

This is by no means a good signal. It means that movie ticket prices may still maintain an upward trend in 2024, and during the Spring Festival in more than a month, high ticket prices will inevitably become a hot topic among audiences.

In short, the loss of audiences is the biggest dark cloud hanging over the Chinese film market. If we only focus on short-term box office figures and ignore the weak growth or even a sharp decline in the number of moviegoers, we will soon face a more embarrassing market environment. , there may even be a bigger irreversible situation.

Movies are still the art of cinemas after all. How the film industry can exert its subjective initiative and fully attract more audiences to watch movies in cinemas is still the most urgent problem that needs to be solved at the moment.

The second dark cloud: limited production capacity recovery and serious shortage of supply

The most important thing to drive moviegoers is to have a sufficient supply of high-quality movies on the market, and the production of good movies must be based on a certain number. There are only more Only when movies are filmed will there be more good movies.

So based on the script filing and project announcement data released by the Film Bureau, we will find that the number in 2023 has only returned to the level of 2021 for the time being, and there is still a clear gap from 2019, which means that although it has been completely liberalized, It will take some time for film production capacity to recover. Moreover, the number in 2019 is not the peak, reaching more than 3,800 in 2016 and 2017.

Of course, as you can see from the right side of the picture below, the number of domestically produced films released has reached the 2019 figure, or even surpassed it. However, since the number of imported films has not yet fully recovered, there is still a lot of film supply throughout the year. Big gap.

[Text/Observer.com columnist Liancheng Yiju] At the end of the 19th century, the famous British physicist Baron Kelvin said in a speech: 'The building of physics has been completed, and only some small details need to be improved.' At the same time, he also It is mentioned that ' - Lujuba

Image source: Beacon Research Institute

And considering our continued growth in the number of theaters and screens, the supply gap is actually larger than we imagined.

As shown in the figure below, the number of theaters in China has reached 12,723, and the number of screens has reached 86,310, which is twice that of North America. It can be said to be the undisputed largest screening market in the world.

However, compared with the number of films released in the theater, the 510 films released in 2023 are still lower than the 586 films released in North America for the whole year. Of course, North America is still recovering. If compared with the 993 films in North America in 2018, the number of films in our country is Supply becomes even more stretched.

Imagine that the number of screens is twice that of North America, but the number of movies is only half that of North America. The level of movie supply in China is actually only 1/4 of that of North America. This is the second huge dark cloud over the Chinese film market.

[Text/Observer.com columnist Liancheng Yiju] At the end of the 19th century, the famous British physicist Baron Kelvin said in a speech: 'The building of physics has been completed, and only some small details need to be improved.' At the same time, he also It is mentioned that ' - Lujuba

Picture source: Lighthouse Research Institute

One of the most serious consequences is that the survival of movie theaters is unsustainable. The single-screen box office in 2023 is only 640,000 yuan, only 2/3 of the level in 2019 - theaters are empty most of the time, and a large number of theaters are idle for many periods of time, which is a huge waste of screening resources. Waste, there is an urgent need for more movie supply, which is also an important reason why more and more movies have been selected to be re-screened in recent years to supplement the lack of production capacity.

In fact, the lack of production capacity can also be reflected in the over-reliance of the Chinese film market on schedules.

Referring to the statistics in the figure below, we can easily observe that the box office share of the Spring Festival in 2023 has expanded from 9.2% to 12.3% compared to 2019, and the summer season has expanded significantly from 27.7% to 37.5%.

[Text/Observer.com columnist Liancheng Yiju] At the end of the 19th century, the famous British physicist Baron Kelvin said in a speech: 'The building of physics has been completed, and only some small details need to be improved.' At the same time, he also It is mentioned that ' - Lujuba

Picture source: Maoyan Research Institute

It can be seen that although the 2023 Spring Festival and summer seasons have set high box office records, it also shows that during non-holidays, the frequency of movie viewing by audiences has dropped significantly, which is definitely not good for the market. further expansion.

As a result, the audience’s movie-watching decision-making habits and the clustering of film studio schedules have formed a mutually reinforcing spiral, which has led to the Chinese film market’s dependence on key schedules being increasingly strengthened, while ordinary weekend schedules have become increasingly deserted, presenting a serious The two-level differentiation has caused the market numbers on working days to be extremely ugly.

[Text/Observer.com columnist Liancheng Yiju] At the end of the 19th century, the famous British physicist Baron Kelvin said in a speech: 'The building of physics has been completed, and only some small details need to be improved.' At the same time, he also It is mentioned that ' - Lujuba

In fact, the national competent authorities have already noticed this. At the "Cultural Power Construction Summit Forum-High-Quality Development of the Film Industry" held in Shenzhen in 2023, Mao Yu, executive deputy director of the National Film Administration, proposed in his speech that all efforts should be made to restore, We will prepare weekend releases and encourage more powerful films to be released on weekends.

In the current situation, the Chinese film market is not to mention hitting 100 billion, let alone surpassing the North American market again. Even just recovering to 2019 is an unrealistic goal.

Therefore, how to fully mobilize the production enthusiasm of the film industry, especially the upstream production side, how to effectively solve the financing difficulties of many film studios, and fully stimulate large-scale film production is absolutely urgent at the moment.

Bona founder Yu Dongye expressed the tight cash flow of film and television production in his speech at the 2023 Tencent Entertainment Annual Ceremony.

[Text/Observer.com columnist Liancheng Yiju] At the end of the 19th century, the famous British physicist Baron Kelvin said in a speech: 'The building of physics has been completed, and only some small details need to be improved.' At the same time, he also It is mentioned that ' - Lujuba

As for the imported blockbusters represented by Hollywood, they are completely hopeless now. It is completely impossible to save themselves.

Especially starting from 2020, the market environment for imported movies in mainland China has completely changed. The box office share has dropped from more than 30% to less than 20%. The top 10 movies at the box office in 2023 will all be domestic movies.

[Text/Observer.com columnist Liancheng Yiju] At the end of the 19th century, the famous British physicist Baron Kelvin said in a speech: 'The building of physics has been completed, and only some small details need to be improved.' At the same time, he also It is mentioned that ' - Lujuba

Image source: Beacon Research Institute

However, the highest box office of imported movies cannot exceed 1 billion, and their originality is seriously lacking, and they are extremely dependent on the development of sequels to the original IP.

[Text/Observer.com columnist Liancheng Yiju] At the end of the 19th century, the famous British physicist Baron Kelvin said in a speech: 'The building of physics has been completed, and only some small details need to be improved.' At the same time, he also It is mentioned that ' - Lujuba

Picture source: Maoyan Research Institute

Considering that the 2024 Spring Festival will not open until mid-February, and looking at the movies in January, there are almost no blockbuster movies to speak of, the box office output in the next more than one month will be extremely Limited, it can be seen that the film shortage is not just a hidden worry in the future, but is already a predicament that we are currently in.

The third dark cloud: Exploring branch distribution had a bad start in the first battle

2023 is known as the first year of branch distribution of Chinese films.

"Split-line distribution" is a new film distribution model compared to the traditional full-line distribution. Simply put, a movie is no longer screened in all theaters, but selected in some theaters according to certain standards. Released. The reason for promoting "split distribution" is mainly to solve the contradiction between supply and demand, that is, people who want to see it can't see it, and no one in the theaters is watching it, so as to find a solution to the distribution dilemma of niche films, and at the same time satisfy more diverse needs. The viewing needs of different audience groups can also be regulated, and theater operations can be standardized to prevent illegal activities such as "box office stealing" to a greater extent. The original intention of

branch distribution itself is very worthy of recognition. It represents the transformation of the Chinese film market from extensive growth to refined operation. However, it is very regrettable that all attempts at branch distribution last year were not ideal.

In November 2023, the first branch-released movie "Silence" was released in 30 theaters across the country. The total box office so far is only 1.44 million, which shows that the branch release did not help this movie gain any additional advantages and growth, but instead allowed The market has generated a lot of doubts and worries about such an innovative move.

This is another dark cloud hanging over the Chinese film market.

[Text/Observer.com columnist Liancheng Yiju] At the end of the 19th century, the famous British physicist Baron Kelvin said in a speech: 'The building of physics has been completed, and only some small details need to be improved.' At the same time, he also It is mentioned that ' - Lujuba

However, it must be pointed out that branched distribution has actually reached a point where it has to be promoted.

Because data shows that there are currently more than 1,600 theaters across the country with an annual box office of less than 4 million, and there are "data anomalies". The main reasons for the anomalies are omissions, concealment of reports, overcharge of service fees, etc. If additional means such as privately moving servers and dual systems are added, the number will be even greater.

In addition, film studios have to pay huge "scheduling fees" every time there is a major schedule. These are chronic diseases that have plagued the Chinese film market for many years. If they are not determined to heal the wounds, they will inevitably seriously hinder the development of the subsequent market.

One of the purposes of off-line distribution is to circumvent these stubborn market problems. Through signing and cooperation, the lower limit of film arrangement is stipulated, directly avoiding the form of film arrangement fee. At the same time, the film studio can also eliminate those theaters that omit reporting and do not settle according to the contract. This will truly allow audiences to return to theaters that operate in compliance with regulations.

However, "If You Are the One 3", which tried to be released separately on New Year's Day, continues to misfire! It lost both reputation and box office, and it was the worst result of Feng Xiaogang's director career in the past ten years.

[Text/Observer.com columnist Liancheng Yiju] At the end of the 19th century, the famous British physicist Baron Kelvin said in a speech: 'The building of physics has been completed, and only some small details need to be improved.' At the same time, he also It is mentioned that ' - Lujuba

Originally, Feng Xiaogang, as an important pioneer of China's Lunar New Year, could indeed bring more attention to off-line distribution. Unfortunately, the quality of this film was indeed unsatisfactory. Not only did it fail to activate off-line distribution, but it became increasingly exposed. There are many shortcomings of the current off-line distribution model.

For example, the theater chain said that it has not arranged to watch the movie, has doubts about the quality of the movie, cannot promise a certain ratio of movie scheduling, and is very worried about the risk of word-of-mouth.

The disastrous failure of "If You Are the One 3" also caused many film investors to further lose confidence in this model.

[Text/Observer.com columnist Liancheng Yiju] At the end of the 19th century, the famous British physicist Baron Kelvin said in a speech: 'The building of physics has been completed, and only some small details need to be improved.' At the same time, he also It is mentioned that ' - Lujuba

However, no matter what, the exploration of branch distribution should be pushed forward unswervingly. The current model is just an attempt to divide theaters into branches. In fact, branch distribution also includes divisions into regions, rounds, etc. dimensions.

believes that as long as a scientific and reasonable branch distribution mechanism can be found in the future, it may be able to turn dark clouds into sunny skies and help the Chinese film market achieve a huge leap forward.

The fourth dark cloud: over-marketing and excessive marketing that are divorced from the essence of movies

Recently, a short video by Papi Jiang in which she apologized to the Chinese film market has become a hot search topic.

She said: "I want to apologize to my country's film market. I should not blindly listen to the marketing videos for film promotions, and I should not use this as a basis to raise my expectations. I have repeatedly made mistakes without knowing enough about bad films. Buy tickets to watch, which indirectly contributes to the chaos in the film industry."

has to admit that Papi Jiang's sharp satire points directly to the over-marketing that has been rampant in the Chinese film market, completely deviating from the essence of the film, and is also shrouded in China. A big dark cloud over the movie market.

[Text/Observer.com columnist Liancheng Yiju] At the end of the 19th century, the famous British physicist Baron Kelvin said in a speech: 'The building of physics has been completed, and only some small details need to be improved.' At the same time, he also It is mentioned that ' - Lujuba

Zhang Yi's refusal to dance "Subject Three" at the road show of the movie "The Three Brigades" also appeared on the hot search, triggering a very extensive discussion.

This hot event is a concentrated expression of the industry chaos mentioned by Papi Jiang. We will find that a large number of movie marketing has begun to become vulgar and revitalized, becoming more and more embarrassing and irrelevant to the content of the movie, which has also attracted the disgust of many viewers.

[Text/Observer.com columnist Liancheng Yiju] At the end of the 19th century, the famous British physicist Baron Kelvin said in a speech: 'The building of physics has been completed, and only some small details need to be improved.' At the same time, he also It is mentioned that ' - Lujuba

The main background of this phenomenon is the popularity of short video streaming media. The main battlefield for film promotion has already shifted to major short video platforms. In order to pursue sinking and traffic, they will do anything.

We can find from the table below that the box office of a movie is highly correlated with the popularity of its short video platform. Any movie that wants to capture high box office must use its marketing method to fit the emotions and habits of short video users.

[Text/Observer.com columnist Liancheng Yiju] At the end of the 19th century, the famous British physicist Baron Kelvin said in a speech: 'The building of physics has been completed, and only some small details need to be improved.' At the same time, he also It is mentioned that ' - Lujuba

As a result, various staged reaction videos have become popular. Even if they attract ridicule from the crowd, they are not ashamed. Instead, they are proud of getting more traffic, and continue to lower the lower limit of marketing.

However, it must be pointed out that this kind of marketing method can only obtain profits in the short term. In the long term, it will seriously damage the trust of the audience, causing the subsequent film promotion effect to be greatly reduced.

[Text/Observer.com columnist Liancheng Yiju] At the end of the 19th century, the famous British physicist Baron Kelvin said in a speech: 'The building of physics has been completed, and only some small details need to be improved.' At the same time, he also It is mentioned that ' - Lujuba

For example, the 2023 movie "Winter" gained a reputation as "fraudulent marketing", resulting in a movie that might not have been that bad in the first place. It received a large number of negative reviews and ended badly at the box office.

However, not only does this kind of excessive marketing show no signs of restraint, it continues to be contagious and has even begun to spread to the roadshow scene. In this regard, many industry insiders have expressed strong dissatisfaction and criticism.

For example, Dong Wenxin, general manager of Jinan Paragon, pointed out that many roadshow scenes have nothing to do with movies, such as essay presentation sessions or embarrassing performances, and the content is completely "fake and empty."This has also won the recognition of many filmmakers, including Guan Yadi, Zhang Xiaobei, etc., and they have all expressed their resistance to this kind of roadshow format that has nothing to do with movies and is overly marketed.

[Text/Observer.com columnist Liancheng Yiju] At the end of the 19th century, the famous British physicist Baron Kelvin said in a speech: 'The building of physics has been completed, and only some small details need to be improved.' At the same time, he also It is mentioned that ' - Lujuba

hopes that in the future, movie marketing can get back on track, truly return to the essence of movies, return to respect for movie creators and movie audiences, and provide real and valuable promotional information. Only through this can we establish a long-term relationship of mutual trust with the audience. .

Only in this way can this dark cloud dissipate.

and above are just a few huge dark clouds hanging over the entire Chinese film market.

The "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Chinese Films" pointed out that our country is currently in a critical period of transformation from a big film country to a powerful film country, and how to deal with the above-mentioned dark clouds is the key to completing the transformation. The entire film industry needs to work together to tackle the problem. The two dark clouds in physics that year brought us unprecedented scientific and technological progress. Therefore, when we really succeed in getting rid of the few dark clouds in the Chinese film market one day in the future, we will inevitably have clear skies!

Chinese movies at that time were naturally like "the boat has crossed the Ten Thousand Mountains".

This article is an exclusive manuscript of Observer.com. The content of the article is purely the author's personal opinion and does not represent the platform's opinion. It may not be reproduced without authorization, otherwise legal liability will be pursued. Follow Observer.com on WeChat guanchacn and read interesting articles every day.

[Text/Observer.com columnist Liancheng Yiju] At the end of the 19th century, the famous British physicist Baron Kelvin said in a speech: 'The building of physics has been completed, and only some small details need to be improved.' At the same time, he also It is mentioned that ' - Lujuba

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