Zhitong Finance App learned that Wanlian Securities released a research report stating that theaters will resume operations in 2023, and policies and measures to expand domestic demand to promote consumption will continue to be effective. Movies are an important scene for offline consumption, and is showing a good recovery trend, and major schedules are performing well. Exceeding expectations, the New Year's Day schedule has a New Year's Eve atmosphere, and the diversification of movie types has achieved full coverage of the audience. We are optimistic about the overall performance of the schedule. It is recommended to pay attention to the core producers and producers of high-quality films and leading companies related to film and television theaters.
incident:
A total of 7 key films will be released on New Year's Day in 2024, including "Twinkle Twinkle Star", "Sneak", "Taylor Swift: Time Tour", "Goldfinger", and "If You Are the One 3" , "The Annual Meeting Can't Stop!" and "Shukebeta Pentagram Flying Saucer".
▍The main points of Wanlian Securities are as follows:
Overall box office: The content supply category is rich, and the New Year’s Day show a strong rebound.
The New Year's Day schedule combined with the New Year's Eve atmosphere and the normalization of holiday movie viewing, and the performance of the schedule was relatively outstanding. Judging from box office performance, the total box office fluctuated from 1.271 billion yuan in 2018 to 1.022 billion yuan in 2022, but the proportion of period box office in the annual box office fluctuated from 2.09% to 3.41%. Due to the large-scale closure of theaters on New Year's Day in 2023, the number of top films was insufficient, and only "Avatar: Water Path" was relied on to support the schedule. It was not as good as the same period in previous years, and the box office dropped to 555 million yuan.
Cinemas will fully resume operations in 2023, and the theater movie market will pick up. Judging from the 2024 New Year's Day film schedules, there are rich film categories, and the superimposed audience demand for watching movies is strong. It is expected that the 2024 New Year's Day schedule is expected to rise to the level of 2021, continuing the National Day recovery trend. Internal structure of
: Hot IP "drama transfer" and comedy movies have attracted market attention, and reputation and film quality have contributed to the final box office.
combines the box office prediction data of major media platforms and adopts an average calculation method to predict that the top three box office for the New Year's Day period in 2024 are "Twinkle Twinkle Shining Star", "The Annual Party Can't Stop!", and "Stealth". The total box office is predicted to reach 3.208 billion yuan during the period.
From the analysis of a single film, "Twinkle Twinkle Star" is adapted from the 2022 online drama of the same name, starring the original cast, with strong IP attributes. The popularity of the drama version boosts the popularity of the movie version, but it is limited by the screen and Due to the difference in screens and the limited length of the film version, it is difficult to fully utilize the characteristics of the drama version and fit the storyline of the drama version. This is also a common problem of "drama-to-film". If the quality of the film is stable, the final box office will be considerable, with an estimated box office of 10.65 100 million yuan;
"The Annual Meeting Can't Stop!" is a real and absurd comedy that allows the audience to see the true face of the workplace through laughter, which can easily lead to breaking the circle of communication. This film is also the first collaboration between the first-generation comedians Dapeng and Baike. The box office is expected to be 907 million yuan;
"Stealth" is directed by Guan Zhiyao and stars Andy Lau, Lam Jiadong, Eddie Peng and Liu Yase. The film is Andy Lau's tenth Six years later, he once again plays the role of a villain. The plot of the battle between police and criminals and undercover sneaking reveals the evil hidden under the "dark web". With its exciting plot and outstanding cast, this movie has attracted the attention of a large number of viewers, and the box office is expected to reach 448 million yuan.
risk factors:
movie reputation and quality are not as good as expected; movie delay risks; movie reputation-related risks.
