The war goes on and death happens every day.
Perhaps, no one thought that this tragic scene would happen in Ukraine, in Europe in the 21st century, in this warm and cold February.
This war is undoubtedly rewriting European geopolitics, and it will also change the whole world pattern. But what we cannot change is the mass of innocent deaths, millions of refugees. This is reality, the harsh reality.
It's really not a peaceful world. This most tragic ground war in Europe after World War II, I believe, has given a strong shock to the hearts of many of us, as well as a lot of lessons and inspirations to the world.
is completely personal opinion, at least 10 points of inspiration.
Revelation one, don't push a big country into a corner.
Different positions, different countries, must have different views on this war. But there is one point , the world must seriously think about the serious consequences of driving a big country to a corner.
Anyway, we see that NATO is approaching step by step, Ukraine is falling to the west, and Russia has gone mad for a variety of reasons, so the war broke out.
But this is only the first act. My other bigger concern is the limit of sanctions from the West - there will definitely be sanctions. Is it another way of forcing a big country to the Jedi?
Anyway, Putin yesterday ordered that Russia's strategic deterrent force entered a state of special combat readiness.
What is a strategic deterrent?
is actually nuclear power.
In this world, some countries are rational and peaceful, while others are impulsive and brave. If the other party is forced to a desperate situation, and the other party has a big killer, what will happen?
Forgot, it seems that someone said, if Russia is gone, what will the world do?
Revelation 2, don't easily believe false promises.
really is a sigh.
sigh for Russia. Putin said before the war that NATO had made a clear promise to Russia that it would never expand eastward, but "they deceived us".
more Ukraine sigh. The situation has developed to this point, is there any factor that the West is clamoring for? Would it be like this if it was to cool down rather than further stimulate Russia?
When the war really broke out, the West shrank back. So much so that Ukrainian President Zelensky said angrily: We defend our territory alone, and the most powerful force in the world is watching from a distance...
Don't forget that the West has a commitment to Ukraine.
mocked when he saw pictures on the Internet: is dangerous to be America's enemy, but fatal to be America's friend.
If a country entrusts its future and destiny with false promises, what will be the result? We can't be too naive.
Revelation 3, you can't just have principles without compromise.
Frankly speaking, at this point, the West does not pay attention to the three red lines drawn by Russia: NATO cannot accept Ukraine, cannot deploy offensive weapons in Ukraine, NATO returns to the deployment in 1997...
Three conditions, even if If only one or two of the first are satisfied, it may not be the case.
Negotiation is the art of compromise.
only tough, no compromise, what is the result?
Han Feizi once had a motto: Elementary school but not humble, less powerful but not afraid of strong, rude but insulting neighbors, greedyAnd those who are poor friends can die.
This is certainly not historical justice, but this is the harsh reality of jungle politics.
to Ukraine, is it possible to join NATO after the war?
Of course, individuals cannot be without blood, and the country naturally needs dignity, but this must be matched with strength and serve the country's best interests, otherwise, there is no need for a negotiating table.
revelation four, can not do without cohesion.
This is really a sigh.
Before the Ukraine war broke out. According to news reports, 96 of the top 100 richest people in Ukraine have escaped. The remaining four did not want to escape, but because they were suspected of corruption and other crimes, they could not escape.
So much so that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky shouted angrily: Some people who claim to be patriots go to other countries when the country needs them most. , or face serious consequences.
But as a result, basically none came back. Before leaving, many rich people took away all kinds of soft goods at home and stuffed suitcases one after another.
Can a country without cohesion survive the crisis?
Perhaps, seeing such a slack scene, it strengthened Russia's determination to send troops.
Of course, Ukraine is changing too. After a few days of war, I feel that cohesion has increased, and then it is Russia's turn to be vigilant.
Inspiration 5, there is no bottom line thinking .
This is a world where the bottom line keeps receding. But we can't think without the bottom line, especially in the Ukrainian battlefield, many things, once started, are developing in the worst direction.
Is Ukraine ready for a Russian attack, including an attack on Kyiv ?
Is Russia ready for extreme Western sanctions, including the removal of SWIFT?
has no bottom-line thinking, and thinks that everything will turn into good fortune. This is actually an ostrich mentality. If you can't make a correct judgment on the situation, you can only get into trouble in the end.
For Ukraine, how to protect national interests to the greatest extent is the most pressing issue at present; for Russia, how to deal with the extreme pressure from the West is the most severe challenge.
The crisis is always there. For the next few years, Russia will have to bite the bullet. If it cannot survive, it will be a new crisis, or even a bigger crisis.
Revelation Six, don't trust force too much.
Clausewitz said that war is nothing but the continuation of politics by another means. Chinese people pay attention to attacking the heart and attacking the city.
Even if Russia really won Kyiv and the whole of Ukraine, can it really recover the Ukrainians?
I don't know, but it must be hard too.
believes too much in force, and is sometimes swallowed by force. There are too many such examples in ancient and modern China and abroad.
The Americans fought the Afghanistan war for 20 years , did they win? Did the Americans overthrow Saddam Hussein's regime?
When it's time to act decisively, of course you need to act decisively; but when it's time for peace, you must seize peace. So, we see that anyway, Russia and Ukraine decided to sit down and talk. This is a good thing.
wants good things to happen soon, although we also know it's hard.
It's easy to start but hard to end. After a war, it can take decades, if not forever, to heal the wounds.
Revelation Seven, don't overestimate the West.
Western intimidation against RussiaBut in the end, the Ukrainian war broke out. In the words of netizens, this proves once again that imperialism is a paper tiger.
Especially when Ukraine was begging, Biden made it clear: The United States will not send troops to Ukraine, and will not fight against Russia...
From the perspective of the United States, this is in the interests of the United States, after all, Russia is a nuclear power , nuclear powers versus nuclear powers, that's no joke.
Biden said frankly that he has only two choices, either sanction Russia or go to war with Russia and start a "third world war".
In the face of national interests, the West must be selfish. This brings up another question, can the West rely on it?
I believe that quite a lot of European countries must be changing their mentality. Some are more cautious, some are more Russian-phobic, and some are deeply suspicious of the West.
Revelation eight, don't underestimate yourself.
Please note that the self here is our China.
There is no doubt that this is a war of Europeans, and China is not the country that is involved, nor is it the country that can calm the situation. But we must also see that many countries are envious of China.
I said it in my previous article. In this world, is there a big country that obeys international rules better than China? Is there a great power that respects the sovereignty of other countries more than China? Is there a major country that values peace more than China?
answer, just two words: no!
In this war, Macron called, Putin briefed the situation, and the foreign ministers of the United States, Germany, France, Russia and other foreign ministers communicated by phone, which fully shows the weight of China in world affairs.
We must never overestimate ourselves, but we must not underestimate ourselves either. In this complex international environment, it is especially necessary to be calm, sober and cautious.
Revelation Nine, don't believe too much in morality.
, I didn't want to talk about it, but after thinking about it, let's talk about it.
Every country wants to occupy the moral high ground. Even if it starts a war, it must find a just reason.
What does this mean?
because morality is important.
Chinese people value "benevolence" and pay more attention to morality. But we must also know that this world, sometimes jungle politics, believes too much in moral results, and is naive except for naivety.
naive disease , that is going to suffer a lot.
In those days, the Soviet Union deployed missiles in Cuba, , the United States was going to go crazy and threatened to start a war. In this case, why can't Russia demand that NATO not deploy offensive weapons in Ukraine?
Also, NATO attacked the Yugoslavia, dismembered Kosovo, and rewrote the European borders; is Russia just following a gourd to Ukraine?
What morality? Sometimes it's all about strength, that is, the weak eat the strong.
has no permanent friends, nor permanent enemies, but some permanent interests. Chinese people naturally pay attention to the kingly way, but they can't be too naive about domineering.
Revelation ten, can not be unprepared for war.
Ukraine also had multiple rounds of mobilization before the war. But after the war, judging from the overwhelming war situation in Russia, Ukraine is still not fully prepared.
This requires both the preparation of the combatant's will to fight and the preparation of the War Machine war logistics. Without sea dominance and air dominance , you can only be passively beaten on the battlefield.
From this perspective, it is still necessary to develop strength, which is the most fundamental preparation.
is self-improvement, and we can only rely on ourselves.
The country is strong and the people are rich, Up and down, who dares to bully us?
Or, to use Yue Fei 's famous sentence of the year: Wenchen does not love money, Wuchen is willing to die, and the world is at peace.
We still have to calmly observe, observe the new changes in the battlefield, which weapons and which tactics are more meaningful to us. Once it happens to us, what should we do and how to break it?
At the same time, observe the new changes in the world, some game methods, sanctions, which ones we may encounter, what should we do, and how to break them?
A few days ago, a netizen left a message to me saying that has a big gap in his heart these days. He was cheering for the Winter Olympics a few days ago, but these few days, it is full of gunfire, and it is sad to say goodbye to relatives. . The world is not peaceful, but I was fortunate enough to be born in China!
I feel the same way, this is really not a peaceful world, we are just lucky to live in a peaceful China. Of course we look forward to peace, but we must also know that we must not be unprepared for war.
still put it well: Although the country is big, warlikeness will surely perish; although the world is safe, forgetting the war will lead to danger.