Picture source @Visual China
Text丨Mirror Entertainment, author | Banzhancha
is approaching the National Day file, "The Way Back", "The King of the Sky", " Ordinary Hero " finally announced the final file in anticipation. Prior to this, the National Day file was quite confusing because there was no film to be finalized for a long time. Nowadays, many films are scheduled to be released, and the large-scale films such as " China Ping Pong ", " Deep Sea " and " Unknown " have entered the publicity period, which also makes the market have more expectations for the National Day file.
’s scheduled box office carrying capacity is about 4 billion, is scheduled to be released soon, and the pattern is tentatively determined
Previously, due to the delay in the release of films, the films that may be released in the National Day archives are mostly based on the promotion of the film by the market. It is widely speculated, but under the limited schedule bearing capacity, there is a high probability that the 6 large-scale films will not get together and set the schedule.
However, it should be noted that, in addition to the summer season and the Lunar New Year season, which are relatively advantageous in terms of duration, the National Day file is second only to the Spring Festival file in terms of influence. In the post-epidemic era, the market's dependence on schedules has increased, and such large schedules will inevitably become the first choice for top movies.
Judging from the past National Day box office trends, Maoyan data shows that from 2017 to 2021, the National Day box office as a whole has a certain degree of volatility, and it has been relatively stable at the order of 4 billion in the past three years. Most of the film's companies are eyeing this ticket warehouse.
But at the same time, in the past three years, there are generally only two 1 billion movies produced in the National Day archives. Although there will be " Changjin Lake " with a box office of over 3 billion in 2021, it will be ranked No. 1 in the box office in the same period. The second place's " me and my father ", the box office output was suppressed to less than 1 billion.
From this perspective, the 6 films currently speculated by the market are still too many for the National Day file. It can also be seen from the respective announcements of the films that in mid-August, "Deep Sea", "China Ping Pong", "The Way Back", "The King of the Sky", "New Big Head Son and Little Head Dad 5" released a batch of materials, Relevant films have entered the publicity period, which is also regarded as an important signal that they will compete for the National Day file.
However, in the first ten days of September, "Deep Sea" and "China Ping Pong" gradually stopped their announcements, and after the release of a new trailer for "No Name" in the same period, no new materials have been released so far. In contrast, "The Journey Home" and "The King of the Sky" are still releasing material information rhythmically. In the data of Maoyan and Lighthouse, the new number of people who want to watch the two films ranks in the top two, and the cumulative number of people who want to watch it ranks in the top two. , the data of the two films are also relatively high.
On the one hand, it is a big taboo for the main creators to bump into files during the big season. Even if such a phenomenon has occurred in the National Day files before, it is mostly in "plattery" movies, and the impact will not be too great. And "King of the Sky" and "Nameless" are both starring , Wang Yibo, , and most likely will not be released at the same time. Moreover, "Unknown" began to distribute materials irregularly as early as last year, and this publicity does not seem to be done for National Day files. Prepare. On the other hand, among the several films speculated by the market, except for "Deep Sea", the other large-scale films are all theme films, and the similarity of themes also determines that several films will not be released at the same time.
At present, with several films such as "Homecoming", "The King of the Sky", "Ordinary Heroes" and "New Big Head Son and Little Head Dad 5", the overall competition pattern of the National Day files has initially appeared.
Variables still exist, but the confrontation between new and old companies may be doomed
Before more films are officially finalized, there are still many variables in this year's National Day file, no matter whether the film enters the publicity period ahead of schedule, it is difficult to determine who will end up in the end. The only certainty is that this year's National Day file will still be a fierce battle.
At present, the most popular in the market is "The Journey Home", which is adapted from the Libyan evacuation incident and focuses on the topic of Chinese diplomacy, which has attracted a lot of attention. And the film is starred by Zhang Yi , Wang Junkai , etc. The quality assurance of the former and the traffic drive of the latter also make this film appear as a hit earlier. On Douyin, a video of Zhang Yi holding a Chinese diplomatic passport in his hand has accumulated nearly 2 million likes.
From many aspects, "The Journey Home" and The main theme films that Bona is good at are somewhat similar, but the main controller of the film is Huace Films. Although Huace has been deeply involved in the TV drama market for many years, it is still a new player in the film field. Previously, the " Assassination of the Novelist " under its control entered the Spring Festival and won 1 billion box office. In addition to the director of Rao Xiaozhi , the producer also invited Guo Fan and Wang Hongwei . If "The Journey Home" is scheduled for National Day and has a good box office performance, Huace will also take advantage of the trend to stand more firmly in the film market.
In addition to Huace's attempt to get a piece of the National Day pie, Tingdong Pictures, which is behind Han Han , is also expected to enter the National Day file for the first time. Its master "King of the Sky" focuses on fighter test pilots, starring Wang Yibo, Hu Jun and . The lineup does not lose to "Homecoming", which also makes it one of the films that are favored by the market. The hot-blooded theme may hit the audience's cool point.
However, the advantages of the main theme films of the National Day file have been in Bona's hands for a long time. " China Captain ", " Me and My Motherland " and "Changjin Lake" have all won good box office in the National Day file. Performance. Now, Bona will not easily hand over this market to others. Although Bona's "Anonymous" has no further announcements, since mid-September, Bona's other film "Ordinary Heroes" has been released. Entering the announcement period, the film, together with the previous " Fire Hero ", belongs to Bona's "Heroes" series, directed by Chen Guohui , starring Li Bingbing , Feng Shaofeng , etc.
It is true that from the perspective of the main creative lineup, "Ordinary Heroes" is slightly inferior to "No Name" of the same company, or "The Way Back" and "King of the Sky" in the same announcement period. "Heroes of Fire" once won a box office of over 1.7 billion in the summer, and "Ordinary Heroes", with the blessing of powerful actors, is not without the ability to fight against it. In this way, new and old film companies may usher in a head-to-head confrontation in the field of theme films.
To some extent, this year's National Day file will most likely be covered by the main theme film. It is undeniable that the festive atmosphere of the National Day file is indeed more suitable for the theme film, but if it is too concentrated, it will also affect the diversity of the theme of the program. Last year's National Day file, Guangguang tried to use the youth film " Five Threatening Boys " to be small and broad, but the difference in subject matter did not bring good box office space to the film, which may also make Guangguang in " The layout of Deep Sea is even more hesitant. In contrast to
, due to the stability of the parent-child market, the "New Big Head Son and Little Head Dad 5" jointly developed by CCTV, Maoyan and Wanda does not have many concerns, and in terms of IP nationality, it is also different from others. Animated films have opened a large gap. If they can be scheduled for National Day, they are expected to get a good box office space. The
schedule is approaching, and while the film is "airborne", the film side is also actively responding to market changes. The lack of a certain number of film announcements will certainly bring more obstacles to the development of the industry, but steady progress is the best news that can be heard at the moment. We look forward to more surprises in this year's National Day file.
