[Text/Observer.com columnist Chang Luowen]
Trump’s return to the White House with a huge advantage has also allowed many allies to make their own calculations again.
According to Kim Tae-hyo, the first chief of the National Security Office of South Korea, President Yoon Seok-yue and Donald Trump had a phone call for about 12 minutes starting at 7:59 a.m. on November 7 to congratulate him on being elected president - Kim Tae-hyo The disclosure of this news, even accurate to a few minutes, shows the South Korean government's "fascination" mentality towards the United States.
Prior to this, Yin Xiyue had already sent congratulations on the
Yin Xiyue will be elected as the president of South Korea in 2022. He has not been a professional politician before, so he has no intersection with Trump and does not seem to have any unofficial interactions. This public congratulation is after Trump was shot. Yin Xiyue expressed condolences through the x platform Another courtesy routine later.
As an ally of the United States, the current Yin Xiyue government has adopted a diplomatic policy of leaning toward the United States, getting closer to Japan, hostile to North Korea, besieging Russia, and alienating China since the beginning of its term. All of its actions have received strong support from the Democratic Party government in the United States. At the same time, the Biden administration has also given the Yin Xiyue government sufficient preferential treatment in terms of the implementation of the "Chip and Science Act", "friendly shore outsourcing", and the military cooperation mechanism between the United States, Japan and South Korea.
Now that the situation is changing, the future of the Yoon Seok-yue government and even the value of the South Korea-US alliance will face major uncertainties.
Unknown number one: Military spending will be increased? Are U.S. troops stationed in South Korea about to withdraw?
The military expenditure of the US military in South Korea is an important indicator of the US policy towards the peninsula, which directly affects the security situation on the peninsula. It is also one of the few trump cards of the South Korean Conservative Party against the Democratic Party.
During his 45th presidential term, Trump explicitly requested the South Korean government to significantly increase the defense cost sharing of the US military stationed in South Korea. He maintained similar positions and statements in his two subsequent presidential campaign platforms.
I am afraid of comparison. On November 2, at the last moment of the general election, Harris, the US Democratic candidate, sent a special article to the South Korean government-run media Yonhap News Agency, clearly calling the South Korea-US alliance "the realization of the Indo-Pacific region" and the core axis of global peace and prosperity," and said that South Korea's military expenditures have reached a reciprocal and appropriate level.
In October 2024, South Korea and the United States reached an agreement on the 12th Special Agreement on Defense Cost Sharing (SMA), finalizing the amount of defense costs borne by South Korea in 2026 at 1.5192 trillion won (approximately RMB 8.04 billion), an increase from 2025 8.3%. It’s roughly equivalent to 1/9 of Trump’s “asking price.”
File picture: On April 27, 2023, in Washington, the United States, South Korean President Yoon Seok-hyue delivered a speech to the U.S. Congress. Harris, back row, left. Yonhap News Agency
Harris brought up old matters on the eve of the election. Naturally, she was interested in the votes of a large number of second and third generation Korean Americans, especially Korean immigrants living in swing states. However, without the cooperation of the Yin Xiyue government of South Korea, how could Yonhap News Agency Acting as a megaphone at such a critical moment? Now that Harris has been defeated and Trump has returned, the sharing of military expenditures between South Korea and the US military may become one of the "roosters" that scares the monkeys.
In 2018, the Moon Jae-in administration and the Trump administration jointly suspended the "Ssangyong" landing exercise. After Yin Xiyue came to power, he and the US Democratic government restarted the exercise, upgraded it to division level in 2023, and invited British special forces to participate. Existing joint military operations such as Ulchi Freedom Shield and Mace Nuclear Strike war games have also been significantly upgraded. "Hardcore national security" has provided important support to the public opinion base of the Yun Seok-yue government.
If Trump comes to "trouble" after taking office, such as asking South Korea to "increase money", or even mentioning the withdrawal of US troops stationed in South Korea - the United States now has no war to fight overseas, and it still needs to maintain the operation of more than 720 military bases. From Trump's perspective on the operation of the military-industrial complex, it is not a fantasy to withdraw part or all of the U.S. troops stationed in South Korea.
In addition, the support rate of the Yin Xiyue government has dropped to 20%, which will definitely make this problem worse.And although the current Minister of Defense is the former Blue House Security Chief and Yoon Seok-yue's personal bodyguard, the military is not very loyal to Yoon. Previously, South Korean drones crossed the border into North Korea to drop leaflets on psychological warfare. The South Korean Presidential Office said it was unaware of it, which may be It is the result of cooperation between the U.S. intelligence agencies and the South Korean military.
Unknown Number 2: Will North Korea and the United States get closer again?
Another huge security unknown is Trump’s attitude toward Kim Jong Un.
During his last term, although Trump criticized North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as "Rocket Man" and said "my nuclear button is bigger," five months later, he held a historic meeting with Kim Jong-un in Singapore. the first ever North Korea-US summit. Although the Panmunjom meeting and the Hanoi meeting ended in an anticlimactic manner, with both sides feeling cheated, the fact that the two national flags were flying at the same venue for the first time in more than 70 years had a profound political impact.
The special style of conduct and special diplomatic ties between the two leaders (such as NBA player Rodman) also make it impossible for anyone to say whether the Trump-Kim meeting will happen again.
During this campaign, Trump still repeatedly emphasized that "I have a good relationship with Kim Jong-un." His Mar-a-Lago office and the former West Wing of the White House were filled with photos of him and Kim Jong-un.
In addition, North Korea has never given up its dream of direct dialogue with the United States to change the status quo of international isolation and become one of the "big power players". Will Trump harm South Korea's interests in the process of "bargaining" with North Korea? This is a major concern for South Korea, but it is also something that the Yin Xiyue government is completely powerless to do.
Some optimists believe that South Korea and the United States reached an agreement to amend the "South Korea and the United States Missile Guidelines" during President Trump's term, lifting the warhead weight restrictions on South Korea's development of ballistic missiles and the restrictions on the use of solid fuel for launch vehicles. Therefore, Trump President Trump's isolationist foreign policy may also be an opportunity for South Korea. Even if this "opportunity" comes true, the Yoon administration, which is halfway through its term and is struggling in the National Assembly, may not enjoy any benefits.
Unknown number three: Samsung’s “American Dream” is about to be shattered?
During Trump's campaign, another major goal was to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible. This is consistent with the fact that he did not launch foreign military operations during his term of office and eliminated resistance to end the US military's military presence in Afghanistan. However, it is consistent with the Democratic Party's full support for Zelian. The idea of initiating the European Union and Asian allies to send blood to Ukraine to weaken Russia is tit-for-tat.
If Harris inherits the policies of the Biden administration, South Korea’s Yin government can also maintain a certain bargaining power by virtue of its strategic position as the “Arsenal of Democracy.” Now that Trump has come to power, South Korea's political investments in Ukrainian lithium mines, the Zelensky family, Poland and other neighboring countries may all be in vain.
During the Biden administration, South Korea's Yoon Seok-yue government pushed Samsung Semiconductor to go to the United States. This was not only a major step for South Korea to join the U.S. technology camp, but also a model project for the U.S. Democratic government to prove to the outside world that "manufacturing reshoring" is promising.
According to the "Chip and Science Act", Samsung established a new wafer ecological cluster in Tyler, Texas. The Biden administration allocated US$6.4 billion in subsidies. It was originally planned to be put into production in 2024, but due to various reasons, the start-up time was postponed to 2026. . This has caused the SF4 plan, which was originally scheduled to start mass production in 2025, to be postponed to the second half of 2026.
However, due to the judgment that "4nm products are unlikely to be available in 2026", the mass production of sf4 was canceled and the target was targeted at 2nm and more advanced processes (sf2/sf1.4). Moreover, the Taylor factory has no plans to produce DRAM or NAND flash memory. Even if the factory is delivered, it will face the dilemma of having nothing to do, so Samsung decided to postpone the acceptance of advanced packaging equipment from ASML in the Netherlands and withdrew some technical personnel from Taylor.
During the campaign, Trump had been saying that he would cancel the "Chip and Science Act", and he fundamentally denied the use of taxes to subsidize large companies. If he really sticks to his word as he was elected last time, then Samsung's "American dream" of using the original Austin factory and Taylor factory to complete the construction of "overseas Korea" will basically be shattered.
Unknown number 4: Yin Xiyue and his wife
The above problems are actually the adverse reactions of the Yin government’s desperate pro-American policy. For both inside and around South Korea, an extremely conservative South Korean president who loves "stud" and leaves no room for change is not a status quo that all parties want to see.
Moreover, the president’s wife is still a time bomb that constantly creates problems. Although it has been diluted by issues such as North Korea, Ukraine, and the US election, South Korea’s domestic criticism of First Lady Kim Gun-hee has just entered a new stage. In mid-October, Han Dongxun, the representative of the National Power Party of Yun Xiyue's conservative party, publicly criticized Kim Jianxi, accusing Kim Jianxi of "not being a public official but supporting his own faction." Although this is an inevitable step for Han Dongxun to be elected president in 2027, the party leader criticized This is the first time for a first lady in South Korea.
Information picture of Yin Xiyue and his wife Kim Jianxi
After successfully escaping prosecution for stock price manipulation, gallery turmoil, family land, accepting valuable gifts and other issues, President Yoon's vitality was severely damaged, and Kim Jianxi also turned to a low profile, but there has been a rumor circulating in South Korean political circles A list of secretaries and administrative officials related to the "First Lady Faction". Currently, the Director of South Korea's National Security Office, the Diplomatic Secretary, and the Protocol Secretary are all core personnel of the "First Lady Faction".
The opposition Democratic Party camp continues to tie Jin Jianxi's major and minor affairs to the Conservative Party, which indeed causes the Conservative Party to continue to "bleed" and lose ground in congressional elections and regional by-elections. The atmosphere of abandoning Yin Xiyue and promoting Han Dongxun to ensure victory in the 2027 general election has permeated the Korean Conservative Party.
Moreover, during Trump’s campaign, he changed from his big-mouthed style last time and was “cautious in his words and deeds” on issues involving China. His China policy was not as popular as a campaign selling point as last time. After he came to power, the United States’ attitude toward China , What kind of turn will China’s diplomacy with Russia take, which will affect the survival of U.S. allies.
In contrast, the Yin government's interactions with Russia and China are very cold, which has affected South Korea's own trade and economy. For example, Kia's closure of its factory in St. Petersburg will only result in Kia's complete loss of the Russian market. The South Korean government does not seem to have the will or ability to remedy the situation. China recently announced a 15-day visa exemption for South Korean ordinary passport holders. This major goodwill gesture has not yet received a positive response from the South Korean government. In contrast, South Korea's opposition Democratic Party responded much faster.
The release of the US election results has brought more uncertainty than certainty to the world, but it has brought more certainty than uncertainty to South Korea. Whether the Yoon administration will hold on to the policies of the Biden administration until the last second, or turn around in time while there is still time, it has reached the final decision-making window.
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