"Core Tip"
's performance looks good, but under multiple seals, Chinese concept stocks have never been able to set off a new wave in the market.
author | Li Yuwei
editor |
At that time, everyone was Buffett. Pinduoduo has increased from US$30 to US$212. Bilibili has increased from US$30 to US$157.
Subsequently, Zhonggui became a "Chinese beggar". Later, the "Zhongbeg" returned to its normal form, but its glory was no longer there.
Even though Zhongguan’s performance is still outstanding in the current economic environment, it will never return to its past “brilliance”. In other words, the bubble will never reappear.
Chinese concept stocks, including many Internet companies, have successively released their second quarter financial reports and semi-annual reports.
Whether it is a giant with hundreds of billions of dollars like Tencent, or a small giant like Bilibili, Kuaishou, Beike , the financial performance is generally pretty good. However, relative to today's financial performance, the capital market does not buy it.
Both the number of people surfing the Internet and the time spent surfing the Internet have reached their peak. In the eyes of the capital market, Chinese concept stocks, mainly China Concept Internet, have lost the imagination of the past. The more complex international environment has also put multiple seals on Chinese concept stocks.
1, Pinduoduo, take the initiative to add "filters"
What is most indispensable among Chinese concept stocks is the e-commerce platform, and it is also the e-commerce platform that has been hit the hardest.
Growth Top Students Pinduoduo still showed strong explosive power, but it became the one that suffered the worst decline.
In the second quarter, Pinduoduo achieved revenue of 97.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86%. The growth rate has slowed down from previous quarters, but it is still a substantial growth. On a non-GAAP basis, net profit was RMB 34.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 125%.
closed down 28% that night when it announced its financial results.
The decline is widely attributed to management's desperate efforts to lower investor expectations during earnings calls: One is that profits will fall. Another is that now is not the time to buy back stock or pay dividends, nor will it be in the next few years.
This is not the first time Pinduoduo has lowered its expectations during a conference call, but Pinduoduo has maintained three-digit growth every time, making this kind of "persuasion" ineffective in the face of high growth.
This time, Pinduoduo’s growth rate slowed down, coupled with a more obvious “persuasion” signal from management: “Pinduoduo’s revenue and net profit growth will decrease in the next few quarters, which will become a trend.” Eventually, Pinduoduo’s stock price plummeted. .
keeper Alibaba 's fiscal year is from April to March of the following year, and the quarterly report for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 is announced. Revenue for the quarter was 243.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%.
Taotian Group’s e-commerce revenue was 113.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1%. However, GMV increased by high single digits and orders increased by double digits. Alibaba CEO Wu Yongming said in the earnings call that both the live broadcast and the tens of billions of subsidy plans have brought about a high rate of user return visits and a high repurchase rate. "As the market share stabilizes, we can start to accelerate the pace of monetization."
Cloud Intelligence Group revenue was 26.549 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%; international business revenue was 29.293 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 32%. Lazada, its Southeast Asian e-commerce platform, achieved profitability for the first time in July.
Wu Yongming said that most businesses will gradually achieve breakeven within 1-2 years and gradually begin to contribute large-scale profitability.
Jingdong achieved revenue of 291.3 billion yuan in the second quarter. Although revenue increased by only 1%, it was also more profitable, with adjusted net profit of 14.5 billion yuan, an increase of 68.6% from 8.6 billion yuan in the same period last year.The main reason behind the profit exceeding expectations is the increase in gross profit margin. In the second quarter, JD.com's gross profit margin reached 15.8%, which was 1.4 percentage points higher than the same period in 2023. This is not only due to retail, but also due to logistics.
At the financial report conference call, JD.com executives highlighted the improvement of internal supply chain efficiency and the improvement of company management efficiency.
Nowadays, it is not just Maogoupin and Vipshop participating in the e-commerce war. Douyin, Kuaishou, Video Account, and Xiaohongshu are also constantly encroaching on the giant cake of e-commerce.
even includes Meituan . In the second quarter of 2024, Meituan’s instant delivery orders reached 6.2 billion.
The war has escalated, and e-commerce platforms have had to step up their game. Pinduoduo has increased its 10 billion subsidy budget, Taobao and Tmall have issued more large-value coupons than in previous years, JD.com has launched the "Super 18" monthly promotion, and this month also expanded the "buy more expensive and get double compensation" price comparison range.
2, some pretty good financial reports
non-e-commerce Chinese concept stocks, either their revenue keeps growing or their profits soar. Even if these profits come from cost reduction.
As the largest giant in the Internet, Tencent Holdings 's second quarter revenue was 161.117 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.98%, and net profit (non-ifrs) was 57.313 billion, a growth rate of 53%.
With such a huge base, it is not easy to still have double-digit growth on the profit side. As Tencent’s “hope for the whole village”, the video account’s advertising revenue increased by 80% year-on-year.
Although the catering market grew at single digits in the first half of the year, Meituan achieved revenue of 82.3 billion yuan in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 21%, of which core local business revenue was 60.7 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 18%, which meets price sensitivity The "Pinhaofan" business for Chinese consumers has grown strongly and has become an important driver of catering takeout orders.
Meituan q2’s adjusted pre-tax profit reached 13.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.6%. Loss reduction in new businesses has become a key point, especially as Meituan Preferred continues to reduce losses through adjustments such as increasing the average price of parts, closing warehouses, and shrinking subsidies.
Meituan’s annual number of active users and merchants also hit record highs.
The tourism market has recovered strongly, and the performance of the ota platform has also ushered in an explosive period.
Ctrip ’s second quarter revenue was 12.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%; net profit was 3.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.85%. Outbound air ticket and hotel orders have returned to the level of the same period in 2019. The development of inbound tourism and overseas local markets has helped Ctrip’s overseas platform revenue grow by nearly 70%.
Even Bilibili, which has been criticized for using love to generate electricity, has a pretty good financial report.
Bilibili’s financial report for the second quarter of 2024 showed that revenue increased by 16% year-on-year to 6.13 billion yuan. Among them, advertising business revenue increased by 30% year-on-year, and game business revenue increased by 13% year-on-year.
q2 The advertising business has entered the fast lane, and the two biggest driving forces are e-commerce and digital home appliances. E-commerce competes for customers, competes on price, and spends money to find traffic. Station B has received more budget. At the financial report conference call, Bilibili executives said that during this year’s “618”, e-commerce customers’ advertising on Bilibili increased three times year-on-year. Bilibili also brought 50% of new customers to merchants, including maternal and infant, The new customer rate in the parent-child industry exceeds 70%. The gross profit of
b station increased by 49% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin increased for eight consecutive quarters. In addition, Bilibili, which is not yet profitable, achieved positive operating cash flow of 1.75 billion yuan in the second quarter.
Didi also started to make profits.
Although it is the industry leader, online ride-hailing is not a typical good business. Although the commission is great, it is much more difficult for Didi to do nationwide business than other Internet platforms. Not only do we need to deal with each municipal government, we also need to spend real money to subsidize passengers at all times.
But in the second quarter of this year, Didi also achieved profitability: net profit was 1.7 billion yuan. The reason why
turned from a loss to a profit is simple: supply and demand have changed, and there are too many drivers. There is no need to provide huge subsidies to encourage drivers, and they can get the same orders as before, or even more.
The Chinese Internet representative of "living" in food, clothing, housing and transportation is shell. Shell's financial performance in the second quarter of 2024 is better than that in the first quarter. This is because the large-scale market adjustment in the first quarter due to high base and seasonal reasons has subsided. In the second quarter, with the frequent introduction of favorable policies, The market is gradually recovering.
2024In the second quarter, Beike’s net revenue was 23.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%. Net profit reached 1.90 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.2%. The net revenue figure is much higher than the 13.8 billion yuan in the same period in 2022 and the 19.5 billion yuan in 2023.
Although the real estate market is wailing and the top student Vanke in the past had a hard time, as an intermediary, Beike has always maintained a profitable level.
3. Can we go back to the boiling era?
Chinese concept stocks have generally experienced a super roller coaster market.
At the beginning of the epidemic in 2020, residents around the world had difficulty traveling for a period of time and were forced to work from home. Although the real economy has been affected, Internet companies have received super benefits:
Both the number of people online and the time spent online are growing.
People who were originally resistant to the Internet were forced to use their mobile phones to order takeaways, buy groceries, and watch live broadcasts and short videos.
At the same time, Tesla has driven the development of the entire new energy electric vehicle industry. Nio, , Ideal, and Xpeng have been listed successively. Among them, NIO, which has the best market value, once exceeded 100 billion US dollars.
Coupled with the Federal Reserve’s continued unconventional monetary easing policy, Chinese concept stocks, especially China Concept Internet, have been continuously sought after by institutional investors and stockholders. Sufficient liquidity has been invested in Chinese concept stocks.
As a small-cap stock, Bilibili’s rise is among the obvious ones. It rose from US$19 at the end of 2019 to US$157.66 on February 16, 2021, an increase of more than 700%. The overall market value of
was once close to US$60 billion.
Bilibili is affectionately called "little broken station" by users, but in terms of market value, this size can no longer be described as "small". Real estate giant Vanke had a market capitalization of less than US$60 billion at its peak.
Looking at this market value today, I still feel that investors’ expectations were so high at that time.
In the year before its market value peaked, that is, in fiscal year 2020, Bilibili’s revenue was only 12 billion yuan, and the growth was not particularly high, only a 77% year-on-year increase. In terms of net profit, there was a loss of 3.1 billion yuan.
But at that time, the capital market had sufficient liquidity.
also gave a scary enough valuation.
Now Bilibili has achieved a revenue scale in one quarter that was only achieved in the past half year. The company's total cash and cash equivalents, time deposits and short-term investments were RMB 13.91 billion, which was also higher than the RMB 12.8 billion at the end of 2020.
But today’s market value of Bilibili is only US$6.1 billion, only one-tenth of its peak.
NIO has also fallen from US$100 billion at its peak to US$8.4 billion now.
On February 18, 2021, the market value of Tencent Holdings' stock price exceeded 7 trillion Hong Kong dollars, which was equivalent to more than 6 trillion yuan in RMB based on the exchange rate at the time, which was equivalent to the combined GDP of the two Shenzhen cities at that time.
In the quarter before Tencent's market value reached this figure, Q4 2020 achieved revenue of 133.669 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26%, and net profit (non-ifrs) of 33.207 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30%.
As of August 28, 2024, the top ten Chinese concept stock companies by market value are Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, Pinduoduo, BYD, Meituan, Xiaomi, NetEase, JD.com, Nongfu Spring, and Ctrip. The total market capitalization is US$1.2 trillion.
The top ten Chinese concept stock companies by market value at the end of 2020 are Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, Meituan, Pinduoduo, JD.com, Xiaomi, Nongfu Spring, BYD, NIO and Shell, with a total market value of US$2.3 trillion.
In the past, NIO, Meituan, Baidu, and JD.com all had market values exceeding US$100 billion. Now with a market value of 100 billion, only Tencent, Alibaba and Pinduoduo are left.
Thirty years in Hedong, thirty years in Hexi.
Today's changes in the capital market have changed this proverb to "Three years to the east of the river, three years to the west of the river."
The expression of this sentence in Chinese concept stocks is that they are more profitable, but the stock price and market value are low, and no one wants to become a shareholder. "Core Tip" 's performance looks good, but under multiple seals, Chinese concept stocks have never been able to set off a new wave in the market. author | Li Yuwei editor | At that time, everyone was Buffett. Pinduoduo has increased from US$30 to US$212. Bilibili has increased from US$30 to US$157. Subsequently, Zhonggui became a "Chinese beggar". Later, the "Zhongbeg" returned to its normal form, but its glory was no longer there. Even though Zhongguan’s performance is still outstanding in the current economic environment, it will never return to its past “brilliance”. In other words, the bubble will never reappear. Chinese concept stocks, including many Internet companies, have successively released their second quarter financial reports and semi-annual reports. Whether it is a giant with hundreds of billions of dollars like Tencent, or a small giant like Bilibili, Kuaishou, Beike , the financial performance is generally pretty good. However, relative to today's financial performance, the capital market does not buy it. Both the number of people surfing the Internet and the time spent surfing the Internet have reached their peak. In the eyes of the capital market, Chinese concept stocks, mainly China Concept Internet, have lost the imagination of the past. The more complex international environment has also put multiple seals on Chinese concept stocks. 1, Pinduoduo, take the initiative to add "filters" What is most indispensable among Chinese concept stocks is the e-commerce platform, and it is also the e-commerce platform that has been hit the hardest. Growth Top Students Pinduoduo still showed strong explosive power, but it became the one that suffered the worst decline. In the second quarter, Pinduoduo achieved revenue of 97.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86%. The growth rate has slowed down from previous quarters, but it is still a substantial growth. On a non-GAAP basis, net profit was RMB 34.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 125%. closed down 28% that night when it announced its financial results. The decline is widely attributed to management's desperate efforts to lower investor expectations during earnings calls: One is that profits will fall. Another is that now is not the time to buy back stock or pay dividends, nor will it be in the next few years. This is not the first time Pinduoduo has lowered its expectations during a conference call, but Pinduoduo has maintained three-digit growth every time, making this kind of "persuasion" ineffective in the face of high growth. This time, Pinduoduo’s growth rate slowed down, coupled with a more obvious “persuasion” signal from management: “Pinduoduo’s revenue and net profit growth will decrease in the next few quarters, which will become a trend.” Eventually, Pinduoduo’s stock price plummeted. . keeper Alibaba 's fiscal year is from April to March of the following year, and the quarterly report for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 is announced. Revenue for the quarter was 243.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%. Taotian Group’s e-commerce revenue was 113.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1%. However, GMV increased by high single digits and orders increased by double digits. Alibaba CEO Wu Yongming said in the earnings call that both the live broadcast and the tens of billions of subsidy plans have brought about a high rate of user return visits and a high repurchase rate. "As the market share stabilizes, we can start to accelerate the pace of monetization." Cloud Intelligence Group revenue was 26.549 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%; international business revenue was 29.293 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 32%. Lazada, its Southeast Asian e-commerce platform, achieved profitability for the first time in July. Wu Yongming said that most businesses will gradually achieve breakeven within 1-2 years and gradually begin to contribute large-scale profitability. Jingdong achieved revenue of 291.3 billion yuan in the second quarter. Although revenue increased by only 1%, it was also more profitable, with adjusted net profit of 14.5 billion yuan, an increase of 68.6% from 8.6 billion yuan in the same period last year.The main reason behind the profit exceeding expectations is the increase in gross profit margin. In the second quarter, JD.com's gross profit margin reached 15.8%, which was 1.4 percentage points higher than the same period in 2023. This is not only due to retail, but also due to logistics. At the financial report conference call, JD.com executives highlighted the improvement of internal supply chain efficiency and the improvement of company management efficiency. Nowadays, it is not just Maogoupin and Vipshop participating in the e-commerce war. Douyin, Kuaishou, Video Account, and Xiaohongshu are also constantly encroaching on the giant cake of e-commerce. even includes Meituan . In the second quarter of 2024, Meituan’s instant delivery orders reached 6.2 billion. The war has escalated, and e-commerce platforms have had to step up their game. Pinduoduo has increased its 10 billion subsidy budget, Taobao and Tmall have issued more large-value coupons than in previous years, JD.com has launched the "Super 18" monthly promotion, and this month also expanded the "buy more expensive and get double compensation" price comparison range. 2, some pretty good financial reports non-e-commerce Chinese concept stocks, either their revenue keeps growing or their profits soar. Even if these profits come from cost reduction. As the largest giant in the Internet, Tencent Holdings 's second quarter revenue was 161.117 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.98%, and net profit (non-ifrs) was 57.313 billion, a growth rate of 53%. With such a huge base, it is not easy to still have double-digit growth on the profit side. As Tencent’s “hope for the whole village”, the video account’s advertising revenue increased by 80% year-on-year. Although the catering market grew at single digits in the first half of the year, Meituan achieved revenue of 82.3 billion yuan in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 21%, of which core local business revenue was 60.7 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 18%, which meets price sensitivity The "Pinhaofan" business for Chinese consumers has grown strongly and has become an important driver of catering takeout orders. Meituan q2’s adjusted pre-tax profit reached 13.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.6%. Loss reduction in new businesses has become a key point, especially as Meituan Preferred continues to reduce losses through adjustments such as increasing the average price of parts, closing warehouses, and shrinking subsidies. Meituan’s annual number of active users and merchants also hit record highs. The tourism market has recovered strongly, and the performance of the ota platform has also ushered in an explosive period. Ctrip ’s second quarter revenue was 12.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%; net profit was 3.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.85%. Outbound air ticket and hotel orders have returned to the level of the same period in 2019. The development of inbound tourism and overseas local markets has helped Ctrip’s overseas platform revenue grow by nearly 70%. Even Bilibili, which has been criticized for using love to generate electricity, has a pretty good financial report. Bilibili’s financial report for the second quarter of 2024 showed that revenue increased by 16% year-on-year to 6.13 billion yuan. Among them, advertising business revenue increased by 30% year-on-year, and game business revenue increased by 13% year-on-year. q2 The advertising business has entered the fast lane, and the two biggest driving forces are e-commerce and digital home appliances. E-commerce competes for customers, competes on price, and spends money to find traffic. Station B has received more budget. At the financial report conference call, Bilibili executives said that during this year’s “618”, e-commerce customers’ advertising on Bilibili increased three times year-on-year. Bilibili also brought 50% of new customers to merchants, including maternal and infant, The new customer rate in the parent-child industry exceeds 70%. The gross profit of b station increased by 49% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin increased for eight consecutive quarters. In addition, Bilibili, which is not yet profitable, achieved positive operating cash flow of 1.75 billion yuan in the second quarter. Didi also started to make profits. Although it is the industry leader, online ride-hailing is not a typical good business. Although the commission is great, it is much more difficult for Didi to do nationwide business than other Internet platforms. Not only do we need to deal with each municipal government, we also need to spend real money to subsidize passengers at all times. But in the second quarter of this year, Didi also achieved profitability: net profit was 1.7 billion yuan. The reason why turned from a loss to a profit is simple: supply and demand have changed, and there are too many drivers. There is no need to provide huge subsidies to encourage drivers, and they can get the same orders as before, or even more. The Chinese Internet representative of "living" in food, clothing, housing and transportation is shell. Shell's financial performance in the second quarter of 2024 is better than that in the first quarter. This is because the large-scale market adjustment in the first quarter due to high base and seasonal reasons has subsided. In the second quarter, with the frequent introduction of favorable policies, The market is gradually recovering. 2024In the second quarter, Beike’s net revenue was 23.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%. Net profit reached 1.90 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.2%. The net revenue figure is much higher than the 13.8 billion yuan in the same period in 2022 and the 19.5 billion yuan in 2023. Although the real estate market is wailing and the top student Vanke in the past had a hard time, as an intermediary, Beike has always maintained a profitable level. 3. Can we go back to the boiling era? Chinese concept stocks have generally experienced a super roller coaster market. At the beginning of the epidemic in 2020, residents around the world had difficulty traveling for a period of time and were forced to work from home. Although the real economy has been affected, Internet companies have received super benefits: Both the number of people online and the time spent online are growing. People who were originally resistant to the Internet were forced to use their mobile phones to order takeaways, buy groceries, and watch live broadcasts and short videos. At the same time, Tesla has driven the development of the entire new energy electric vehicle industry. Nio, , Ideal, and Xpeng have been listed successively. Among them, NIO, which has the best market value, once exceeded 100 billion US dollars. Coupled with the Federal Reserve’s continued unconventional monetary easing policy, Chinese concept stocks, especially China Concept Internet, have been continuously sought after by institutional investors and stockholders. Sufficient liquidity has been invested in Chinese concept stocks. As a small-cap stock, Bilibili’s rise is among the obvious ones. It rose from US$19 at the end of 2019 to US$157.66 on February 16, 2021, an increase of more than 700%. The overall market value of was once close to US$60 billion. Bilibili is affectionately called "little broken station" by users, but in terms of market value, this size can no longer be described as "small". Real estate giant Vanke had a market capitalization of less than US$60 billion at its peak. Looking at this market value today, I still feel that investors’ expectations were so high at that time. In the year before its market value peaked, that is, in fiscal year 2020, Bilibili’s revenue was only 12 billion yuan, and the growth was not particularly high, only a 77% year-on-year increase. In terms of net profit, there was a loss of 3.1 billion yuan. But at that time, the capital market had sufficient liquidity. also gave a scary enough valuation. Now Bilibili has achieved a revenue scale in one quarter that was only achieved in the past half year. The company's total cash and cash equivalents, time deposits and short-term investments were RMB 13.91 billion, which was also higher than the RMB 12.8 billion at the end of 2020. But today’s market value of Bilibili is only US$6.1 billion, only one-tenth of its peak. NIO has also fallen from US$100 billion at its peak to US$8.4 billion now. On February 18, 2021, the market value of Tencent Holdings' stock price exceeded 7 trillion Hong Kong dollars, which was equivalent to more than 6 trillion yuan in RMB based on the exchange rate at the time, which was equivalent to the combined GDP of the two Shenzhen cities at that time. In the quarter before Tencent's market value reached this figure, Q4 2020 achieved revenue of 133.669 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26%, and net profit (non-ifrs) of 33.207 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30%. As of August 28, 2024, the top ten Chinese concept stock companies by market value are Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, Pinduoduo, BYD, Meituan, Xiaomi, NetEase, JD.com, Nongfu Spring, and Ctrip. The total market capitalization is US$1.2 trillion. The top ten Chinese concept stock companies by market value at the end of 2020 are Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, Meituan, Pinduoduo, JD.com, Xiaomi, Nongfu Spring, BYD, NIO and Shell, with a total market value of US$2.3 trillion. In the past, NIO, Meituan, Baidu, and JD.com all had market values exceeding US$100 billion. Now with a market value of 100 billion, only Tencent, Alibaba and Pinduoduo are left. Thirty years in Hedong, thirty years in Hexi. Today's changes in the capital market have changed this proverb to "Three years to the east of the river, three years to the west of the river." The expression of this sentence in Chinese concept stocks is that they are more profitable, but the stock price and market value are low, and no one wants to become a shareholder.
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