Text丨Vince‍‍‍‍‍Editor丨Zhang Ju On July 16, "Catch a Baby" (also known as "Succession Plan") starring Shen Teng and Ma Li was officially released in major theaters. According to Maoyan Professional Edition data, as of 8:50 a.m., its screening and pre-sales reached 518 million yuan

Text | Vince‍‍‍‍‍

Editor | Zhang Ju

, it also reflects the carnival of the capital parties. Behind "Catch a Baby" are Wanda Movies, Happy Twist Pictures, Alibaba Pictures, China Film, Maoyan Pictures, Hengdian Pictures and other companies. These listed companies that are inextricably linked to them are all highly recommended by institutions and are expected to achieve a win-win situation for both box office and stock price with the help of the summer season.

Summer box office has exceeded 4.2 billion yuan

"Catch a Baby" is expected to sprint to 1 billion yuan +

According to real-time data from Beacon Professional Edition, as of 22:00 on July 14, the total box office of summer movies in 2024 has exceeded 4.2 billion yuan. Usually the summer season refers to the three months from June to August. Judging from the time, this year's summer season is already halfway through. Looking back at the results of the 2023 summer season, the total box office of movies is approximately 20.619 billion yuan. "", "GOD", and "Fengshen Part 1" have box office sales of 3.526 billion yuan, 3.523 billion yuan, and 2.481 billion yuan respectively. Ranked in the top three.

According to data released by Tuopu Research Institute on July 15, in the first half of the year, there was a lack of films with high box office volume of more than 1 billion yuan. Only "Hot and Spicy", " Flying Life 2", " Article 20 " and " The box office of the four films "Bear Infested: Reverse Time and Space" exceeded 1 billion yuan. This year's summer season has yet to see a film with over 1 billion yuan. If we want to catch up with the box office performance of last year's summer season, we hope that the box office of existing films will continue to soar. We also have great hopes for latecomers. The most important thing is "Catch a Baby", which came out after many twists and turns.

is expected to stand out in the summer season, sprinting to 1 billion yuan+, and boosting the box office in the 2024 summer season.

From the plot point of view, "Catch a Baby" is a comedy movie, with the theme of "chicken babies" that is prevalent nowadays, and it is very suitable for release in the summer time. At 8:50 a.m. on July 16, the film scored 7.5 on Douban, and its screenings and pre-sales reached 518 million yuan. As can be seen from Figure 1, "Catch a Baby" ranks first in terms of box office share, number of screenings, proportion of films scheduled, and attendance rate, showing its strong box office appeal.

In addition, as can be seen from the Meituan Movies column, the poster of "Catch a Baby" has always been placed in a prominent position. Figure 3 is the promotion for the Meituan Movie performances on July 15th and July 16th.

In addition to "Catch a Baby", "Silent Kill", which is based on the theme of school bullying that is of current social concern, is also expected to hit 1 billion yuan+.

Judging from this month's film schedule, there are many new films worth looking forward to, such as " decrypted ", "your name", " Under the Stranger ", " White Snake: The Floating Life ", "" Deadpool and Wolverine " and Xu Zheng's "Counterattack Life" and other films.

Listed company capital carnival

Maoyan Entertainment, Wanda Movies, China Film and other popular movies

In addition to the main creators such as directors, screenwriters and actors, the investment of the capital behind it cannot be ignored. The essence of capital is to pursue profits, especially investment in commercial films; the success of the film will not only generate considerable box office revenue, but for the listed companies behind it, it is also expected to drive funds from the secondary market to push up the stock price and achieve box office and stock price A win-win situation.

So what kind of capital is behind the currently popular film "Catch a Baby"?

The film is produced by Xihong Film and Television, Wanda Film, Happy Mahua Pictures, Ruyi Pictures, Alibaba Pictures, China Film and other companies, Xinli Media, Maoyan Pictures, Hengdian Pictures, Penguin Pictures, Youku, etc. Jointly produced by the company, the lineup can be described as luxurious. specifically includes A-share listed companies Wanda Film, China Film, Hengdian Pictures, and Hong Kong-listed Maoyan Entertainment and Alibaba Pictures .

Although the investment proportions of these investors are unknown, subsequent investors may be able to find clues in the relevant statements of listed companies. Tuopu's film market research report for the first half of 2024 also pointed out: Among listed production companies, China Film Investment's films have the highest cumulative box office, followed by Hengdian Film and Television, followed by Alibaba Pictures, China Ruyi, and Maoyan Entertainment in the box office rankings. Among the listed theater chains, China Film and Wanda Cinemas ranked first in box office, followed by Shanghai Film and Television.

Driven by the expected hype in the capital market, with the release of the film, the stock prices of these listed companies have shown signs of changes; and relevant institutions have already entered the game, such as Wanda Film, China Film and Hengdian Pictures, all have relevant reports in the first quarter Investment institutions have increased their holdings or made new investments, and Maoyan Films has recently received an "overweight rating" from Morgan Stanley.

Judging from their performance, Wanda Film took the lead in "screening": On July 10, Wanda Film released its performance forecast for the first half of the year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses in the first half of the year was 71 million yuan - 101 million yuan. , a decrease of 75.67%–82.90% compared with the same period last year (see Figure 4).

In the performance preview announcement, Wanda Film explained the reasons for the change in performance in the first half of the year: In the first half of 2024, affected by the insufficient supply of top films in the second quarter and the sluggish box office performance of the market, the overall recovery of the Chinese film market was less than expected. From April to June 2024, the national movie box office was 7.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.7%, which was only 58.5% of the same period in 2019; the number of moviegoers was 180 million, a year-on-year decrease of 31.2%, which was only 58.5% of the same period in 2019. 55.8%. Except for some popular schedules, the non-holiday box office is relatively lukewarm.

During the reporting period, the company's domestic theaters achieved a box office of 3.13 billion yuan (excluding service fees), a year-on-year decrease of 14.5%, and the number of moviegoers was 75 million, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3%. At the same time, affected by the overall decline of the overseas film market, the company's Australian theaters Box office revenue was lower than expected, and fixed costs such as theater operating rent and depreciation were high, leading to losses in the company's theater segment in the second quarter.

Although the film market was relatively flat in the second quarter, with the arrival of the summer season, Wanda Film is still confident that the market will continue to recover in the second half of the year. The company said that so far, important films such as "Catch a Baby", " Retrograde Life ", "Under the Stranger", "Decryption", "Legend", "White Snake", "Despicable Me 4" and "Deadpool and Wolverine" have been released. Fixed files, rich types and diverse themes. High-quality top films are expected to stimulate the continued release of movie-going demand and drive steady growth in box office and movie attendance, which are expected to have a positive impact on the movie market and the company's theater-side operations.

In the second half of 2024, the company's film reserves are also relatively abundant. The films "Catch a Baby" and "White Snake: The Floating Life" produced and distributed have been scheduled for July 16 and August 10. The participating films "Silent Kill" are currently in theaters, and "Alien" "Under the Man" and "Decrypted" will be released on July 26 and August 3. Films such as "Manslaughter 3", "A Cloud Looks Like You" and "Liar" are also expected to be released within the year. Company content End performance is also expected to be further improved.

sorted out the institutional holdings of Wanda Film in the first quarter. Among the top ten liquid shareholders, qfii, China Southern Fund, China Merchants Securities and Xingquan Fund all increased their holdings (see Figure 5).

In addition, with the popularity of "Catch a Baby", it has also brought about an expected improvement in the market for Hong Kong stock Maoyan Film and Television. According to Morgan Stanley's latest report on July 15, Maoyan Entertainment's stock price is expected to outperform the industry in the next 15 days, with a probability of occurrence of 60% to 70%, with a target price of HK$11.6 and an "overweight" rating. The reason is that the market is expected to improve as the blockbuster "Catch Me" sparked heated discussions last weekend. Morgan Stanley has raised its box office forecast for "Catch a Baby" from the previous 2 billion yuan to more than 3 billion yuan, and believes that there is a possibility of an upward trend in the summer box office forecast. The bank believes Maoyan Entertainment will benefit from blockbusters and a better-than-expected movie market.

Summer movies may be a boost for the movie market.

Looking forward to more blockbuster counterattacks. Content quality is the core.

Summer movie movies are hot, especially blockbuster movies like "Catch a Baby", which may give a boost to the domestic movie market, which is still on an overall climb. A powerful shot of cardiotonic injection.

According to Tuopu data, the total box office of mainland movies in the first half of 2024 was 23.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.50%, recovering to 76% of 2019. The lack of blockbusters and the lack of impact of top movies on the market are the main reasons for the decline in box office. In terms of theater operations, the box office volume of theaters has dropped significantly. High-yield theaters with a box office of 2.5 million yuan and above are only 60% of what they were in 2019. However, in the first half of the year, the number of theaters in theaters and newly built has returned to positive growth. Among them, there are 12,700 theaters in theaters, an increase of 4.6% year-on-year. There were 508 new cinemas, a year-on-year increase of 29.9%, with the number growth mainly concentrated in February.

At present, consumers’ enthusiasm for watching movies is still recovering. In the first half of the year, the overall popularity was weak in the sprint period one week before the release. Among top films, box office growth is driven more by word-of-mouth (see Figure 6).

At present, producers are still the big winners in the film industry, especially blockbuster movies. Among the new films that will be released next, there is still no shortage of hit content (Figure 7). The recent Minsheng Securities report suggested paying attention to key film producers, cinema lines and ticketing companies, including Wanda Film, Bona Pictures, Maoyan Entertainment, Alibaba Pictures, Happy Blue Ocean, Hengdian Film and Television, Shanghai Film, China Literature Group, China Film, etc. .

In addition, as mentioned before, more and more movies are released through word-of-mouth, which requires high-quality content to touch moviegoers. Content is the core competitiveness of a movie. Nowadays, the development of technology can make the impact of the shot more and more powerful, but it is still the content itself that truly touches the heart, can be remembered, and is widely disseminated.

Looking back over the past few decades, there are no exceptions for inherited film and television works that have been hailed as classics at home and abroad. This is the prerequisite for a movie to become a hit. Therefore, listed companies such as Reading Group, which the above organization recommends paying attention to, are successful film and television adaptations of excellent online works, driving the linkage of the IP industry chain with , thus generating huge commercial value!

(The individual stocks mentioned in the article are only for example analysis and do not provide investment advice.)