China Fund News Reporter Li Shuchao
With the recent recovery of the stock market and the decline of commodity yields, the scale of currency ETFs, which is the vane of "on-exchange margin financial management", has shrunk significantly. Data show that the latest total size of the 27 currency ETFs in the market is 184.4 billion yuan, a decrease of nearly 48 billion yuan from the high point in late February, a shrinkage of more than 20%.
Respondent institutions and industry insiders said that the decline in commodity-based yields coupled with the recovery of the A-share stock market and the increase in risk appetite for funds on the market may cause some funds to be diverted to stock assets with higher profit-making effects. Many institutions will also increase the attractiveness of this type of product by increasing product yields and enriching trading strategies.
The stock market is recovering
The scale of currency ETFs has shrunk by more than 20% from its high point
wind data shows that as of May 10, the total scale of the 27 currency ETFs in the market was 184.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.7 billion from the peak of scale on February 21 this year. Yuan, the scale shrank by 20.5%. Among them, the scale of leading currency ETF products led the decline. The scale of Yinhua Daily ETF shrank by 22.2 billion yuan, a shrinkage of 21%; the scale of Huabao Tianyi ETF shrank by 23.5 billion yuan, a shrinkage of 23%.
According to data from the Asset Management Association of China, the scale of monetary funds also fell after the stock market rebounded from the lows in February. In March, the scale decreased by nearly 290 billion yuan.
Respondent institutions and people said that as the yield of commodity funds has declined, the attractiveness of products has declined. On the other hand, the rebound of the stock market has also increased the risk appetite of funds. Funds may be diverted from lower-risk commodity funds, especially It is the diversion of on-site margin financing to equity assets. According to
wind data, as of May 10, the average 7-day annualized return rate of 27 currency ETFs was 1.66%. The average annualized rate of return for Class A shares in the entire market over the past seven days was 1.62%, down 72 basis points from the beginning of the year. The rate of return on commodity base has declined significantly.
A public fixed-income fund manager said that currency ETFs have the characteristics of good liquidity, convenient transactions, and strong market sensitivity. Changes in product scale have a certain relationship with their own rate of return and stock market activity. As the stock market recovers this year, currency yields decline, and investor risk appetite gradually increases, the stock market may attract some funds and the scale of currency ETFs will shrink.
The interviewed institutions believe that generally speaking, the increase or decrease in the scale of currency ETFs and the rise and fall of the stock market will show a "seesaw effect."
From the perspective of a public fund agency, on-exchange currency ETFs are essentially commodity funds, which are more convenient than over-the-counter commodity funds. After selling the fund on the same day, you can directly invest in stocks, and you can buy the stocks on the same day. Currency ETFs do not calculate returns, so there is mostly a "seesaw effect" between the two.
will enhance its attractiveness by enriching trading strategies.
Under the above-mentioned "seesaw effect", interviewed institutions and industry insiders said that the direction of change in the scale of currency ETFs is mainly controlled by the rise and fall of the stock market and changes in its own rate of return.
The above-mentioned public fund agency believes that the subsequent shrinkage trend of currency ETFs will be affected by the following factors: First, it has a certain correlation with the trend of the stock market. In the future, we can pay attention to whether the macro economy can maintain a good start in the first quarter and the stock market maintains a good momentum; second, it has a certain correlation with the trend of the stock market. Monetary policy is easy to loosen but difficult to tighten, and the yield on the currency base is not high when liquidity is abundant. Third, new capital regulations have been officially implemented, and the attractiveness of the currency fund to banks is also declining.
"Looking at the overall situation, under the background of the bond bull market and low interest rates, it is expected that commodity-based yields will decline. The scale of commodity-based ETFs is greatly disturbed by the stock market. Amid the fluctuations in the stock market, the shrinking momentum may be alleviated." A person from the public fund agency say.
Specifically from the perspective of yield, the above-mentioned public fund agency believes that in the short term, the imbalance between supply and demand is expected to improve in the second quarter of this year, the power of the game will gradually increase, market fluctuations are expected to increase, and the yield rate of the commodity base will not be elastic in the rebound of the bond market. big. In the long term, the Politburo meeting proposed "increasing efforts to reduce the financing costs of the real economy". It is expected that there is still room for interest rate cuts and RRR cuts. There is a high probability that policies will push interest rates downward. In a low interest rate environment, it is expected that the base yield will continue to decline. .
The above-mentioned public fixed-income fund manager said that tool products such as currency ETFs are currently highly concentrated in scale, and some products that were deployed earlier have first-mover advantages.Existing products can also enhance their attractiveness and competitiveness by improving product yields, improving on-site trading efficiency, managing liquidity, and enriching arbitrage trading strategies.
Editor: Captain
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