[Editor's note] The tide of science and technology is surging, consumption is improving and upgrading, and industrial changes are raging... China is forging ahead on the road to high-quality development. Investment is a long-distance race, keep up with the index and grasp the "beta" of the times. The "Index Quick Look" column provides in-depth analysis of the characteristics of different indexes to help investors explore new investment opportunities.
Elon Musk recently stated on social media that by the end of next year or 2026, new artificial intelligence models may surpass human intelligence and be "smarter than the smartest people." This bold prediction once again aroused people's attention and discussion on artificial intelligence.
In recent years, from the launch of chatgpt, to the emergence of large domestic models, to the launch of sora... the AI wave is coming. Industrial waves will always create waves in the stock market. For ordinary investors, it is a convenient choice to seize the development opportunities of the artificial intelligence industry through index investment.
Since the artificial intelligence industry chain involves many links, the focuses of artificial intelligence-related indexes also vary. To understand the differences between different indices, we must first clarify the artificial intelligence industry chain.
dismantles the artificial intelligence industry chain
The artificial intelligence industry chain can be dismantled into three major links: upstream computing power, midstream models, and downstream applications. The upstream computing power link of
is an indispensable infrastructure for large model training and artificial intelligence application development. It involves related hardware equipment, just like the "shovel seller" in the industry, and is expected to benefit from industry development opportunities first. At present, domestic companies already have world-leading supply capabilities in some aspects of computing power, and judging from domestic AI chip shipment data, domestic investment in computing power is expected to increase significantly in 2024 compared with last year, and more will be competitive domestically. The performance of computing power manufacturers is expected to enter a period of rapid growth. The
midstream model link can give artificial intelligence the ability to perceive, analyze, make decisions, and interact, mainly involving related algorithm research and model construction. Overall, the performance of domestic large models may be realized later than the computing power link, but their scale effects are stronger and their valuations are more elastic. The downstream application link of
integrates various technologies for different scenarios and empowers various industries, including software applications and hardware applications, such as intelligent driving, robots, etc., with broad development space. Specifically, in terms of software applications, with the advantages of my country's largest number of Internet users in the world, various domestic software applications can quickly push AI functions to users and iterate; in terms of hardware applications, my country's continuously improving manufacturing strength has also It will provide solid support for the accelerated implementation of hardware such as robots and AI wearable devices.
Industry distribution Lianliankan
CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme Index, CSI Cloud Computing and Big Data Theme Index, CSI Software Service Index, CSI Robot Industry Index... As can be seen from the names, these artificial intelligence indexes have great impact on the industry. The coverage focus of the upper, middle and lower reaches of the chain varies.
For example, the CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme Index covers the entire artificial intelligence industry chain. Its component industries include electronics, communication equipment and technical services, semiconductors and other industries related to upstream computing power, as well as computers related to midstream models and downstream applications. , media, passenger cars and parts and other industries. Compared with the other three indexes, the industry distribution of the CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme Index is relatively even. The
CSI Cloud Computing and Big Data Theme Index focuses on the upstream computing power and downstream software applications of the industrial chain. The constituent stocks are mainly concentrated in the three major industries of computers, communication equipment and technical services, and electronics.
The CSI Software Services Index focuses on large models in the middle reaches of the industry chain and downstream software applications. Its industry distribution is the most concentrated among the four indexes, and its constituent stocks all belong to the computer industry.
National Securities Robot Industry Index focuses on hardware applications downstream of the industrial chain - robots. The machinery manufacturing industry accounts for more than half of the index, and also includes industries not covered by the other three indexes such as power equipment, aerospace and defense, public utilities, nonferrous metals, medical, and non-metallic materials. The industry distribution is the largest among these four indexes. widely.
Competition of Component Stocks
In addition to industry distribution, the index's heavyweight stocks and their concentration are also an important perspective for observing the differences and characteristics between indices.
From the perspective of the number and concentration of constituent stocks, the CSI Software Services Index has the smallest number of constituent stocks, 30, and the top ten constituent stocks account for more than 60%, with the highest concentration; the National Securities Robot Industry Index has the largest number of constituent stocks. , is 100, and the total weight of the top ten constituent stocks is 45%, which is relatively dispersed; while the number of constituent stocks of the CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme Index and the CSI Cloud Computing and Big Data Theme Index is both 50, and the top ten constituent stocks The total weights are 51% and 56% respectively.
Judging from the specific distribution of the top ten constituent stocks, there are 7 overlapping stocks in the CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme Index and the CSI Cloud Computing and Big Data Theme Index. However, Hikvision, the largest heavyweight stock in the former, does not appear in the list. The remaining three index constituent stocks are included in the list. The number of overlaps between the CSI Software Services Index and the top ten constituent stocks of the first two indexes is 2 and 5 respectively, while the CSI Robot Industry Index has the lowest overlap with the remaining three indexes.
It is worth mentioning that iFlytek is the only common component stock in these four indices, and is the largest component stock in three of the indices, accounting for about 10%.
"Artificial Intelligence +" releases growth potential
The era of artificial intelligence is accelerating. The government work report proposes "artificial intelligence +", which means that artificial intelligence will be deeply integrated into thousands of industries, opening up the growth space for enterprises related to the artificial intelligence industry chain. .
Due to the different business models and performance realization rhythms of different links in the industry chain, there will be certain differences in the performance growth rates of the four artificial intelligence indexes. According to the forecast of China Merchants Securities, the net profits of constituent stocks of the CSI Cloud Computing and Big Data Theme Index and the CSI Software Services Index will grow rapidly in 2024, both exceeding 60%. The growth rates of the CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme Index and the National Securities Robot Industry Index will also increase. Both exceed 30%.
In recent years, the artificial intelligence industry has accelerated its development, but it is difficult to predict the pace of commercialization and performance realization in subdivided areas. Investors can fully consider their own investment purposes, investment period, investment experience, asset status and other factors. Risk tolerance, rational judgment based on understanding the basic characteristics and valuation levels of the index, and choosing to allocate one or more related indexes.
Currently, there are artificial intelligence ETF (159819), cloud computing ETF (516510), software 30ETF (562930), and robot 100ETF (159530) tracking these four indexes on the market. Interested investors can pay attention.
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