Since Macron announced that he would not rule out the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine, all parties have been worried about a direct war between NATO and Russia.
According to CCTV News, on April 3, local time, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova announced that in early March this year, France had determined the size of a battalion-level tactical group of 1,500 people in order to allow the French army to fight in Ukraine. It is composed and is expected to be ready for combat in mid-April this year.
According to the "Wall Street Journal" citing news on April 2, Macron not only once again advocated sending troops to Ukraine at the Paris Summit, but even tried to give "reassurance" to NATO allies: If the French army goes to Ukraine, it will become a target of the Russian army. France will not harm the United States and NATO.
The implication is that in order to contain Russia, France will not hesitate to fight Russia alone.
However, it didn’t take long for France’s attitude to change again.
According to a report by Xinhua News Agency on April 4, on April 3, French Defense Minister Le Corny had a phone call with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. The two sides discussed the situation in Ukraine and the terrorist attack in the suburbs of Moscow.
It is reported that this is the first phone call between the French and Russian defense ministers since October 2022. Before that, the connection between France and Russia seemed to be frozen. The resumption of the call at this time makes people suspect that something big is going to happen.
During this call, the Russian Defense Minister issued a warning to France, saying that if France insists on sending troops, it will cause problems to France itself . However, France only reiterated its strong condemnation of the Russian army's attack on Ukraine and reiterated its support for Ukraine.
Regarding the terrorist attack at the "Krocus City" concert hall, as Russia has repeatedly accused the West and Ukraine of participating in the terrorist attack, the French Defense Minister also distanced himself from the West and Ukraine and strongly condemned this incident. After a terrorist attack, he offered to strengthen cooperation with Russia in the field of counter-terrorism..
From this point of view, France’s attitude towards Russia seems to have softened a lot.
So, what exactly is France planning? We understand this in two steps.
First of all, France does have reason to hate Russia and needs to save face with Russia.
From Mali to Niger, France has been repeatedly squeezed out and the French army has been expelled, leaving France in a state of embarrassment. France directly puts this account on Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin does not shy away from this, believing that France’s criticism of Russia stems from Being stepped on by Russia in Africa, the West African countries in France's original sphere of influence turned to Russia, making France extremely dissatisfied with Russia.
Then, France will always find a way to settle accounts with Russia. Today's France is afraid that its ability to project military power remotely is not ideal. Therefore, sending troops to Ukraine to directly confront the Russian army can not only directly attack the Russian army and vent France's anger, but also be easier to operate.
Secondly, France may have two plans.
One, bluff. France has not yet made up its mind to send troops to Ukraine, but it deliberately blurs the "red line" of "aiding Ukraine and resisting Russia" to make Russia's intentions towards France uncertain and make Russia either fearful or waste its energy;
Secondly, France is in Prepare to join the war, but are still undecided about the scale of sending troops. France may send a small force to prove that it is not lying, and then stop when it gets better, or it may continue to increase the level of participation in the Ukrainian war, and then get deeper and deeper into this war.
So, France needs to face up to three problems.
First, Russia is not easy to fight, and it may continue to expand the size of the Russian army in Ukraine. It is reported that this spring, Putin signed a conscription, and the Russian army is expected to recruit 150,000 soldiers. According to Xinhua News Agency, on April 3, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that, stimulated by the terrorist attack on the "Krocus City" concert hall, Russia will enlist in the army. The number of people has increased significantly, with 16,000 people enlisting in the army in the past 10 days.
Second, the United States has made a clear commitment not to send troops to Ukraine. According to reference news reports, US Secretary of State Blinken promised on the 2nd that not even a single US soldier will appear on Ukrainian soil.. In other words, the US military will not end, and other NATO member states will only become more hesitant to send troops to Ukraine. For France, the pressure to go to Ukraine to fight is not small.
Third, France’s military strength is also ranked among the top. However, on the premise that the Russian army does not directly threaten the French mainland, if the French army has suffered a lot of sacrifices in Ukraine, how will Macron explain it? You must know that Macron was often "forced into the palace" due to France's economic difficulties.
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