[Text/Observer Network, Zou Xuchen, Editor/Lu Dong] As of midday on January 31, 2024, Flush shows that 2,731 of the 5,347 A-share stocks have disclosed their 2023 full-year performance forecast, which is more than half. And more than a thousand of them were disclosed after the ma

[Text/Observer Network, Zou Xuchen, Editor/Lu Dong]

As of midday on January 31, 2024, Flush shows that 2,731 of the 5,347 A-share stocks have disclosed their 2023 full-year performance forecast, which is more than half. And more than a thousand of them were disclosed after the market closed yesterday (January 30, 2024).

From the data point of view, of the 2,731 companies that disclosed performance forecasts, some of them experienced a sharp increase in performance, while others experienced a sharp decline in performance. There were not many companies in the middle. It can be said that there are two worlds of ice and fire. In addition, although there is a positive relationship between forecast performance and the rise and fall of the sector, it is not absolute.

Performance Forecast "Fire and Ice"

Preliminary statistics from Observer.com show that 1,476 of the 2,731 companies have predicted a positive median change in net profit, accounting for 54.05%; 1,253 companies have predicted a negative median change in net profit. companies, accounting for 45.88%; there are 2 companies with a median forecast net profit change of 0. For example, Tianqiao Hoisting's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 34.65 million yuan to 46.88 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year change of -15% to 15%.

net profit dropped by 50% year-on-year, which is generally referred to as "cut in half". Of the 1,253 companies that forecast a negative median net profit change, 1,053 companies forecast a median net profit drop of more than 50%, accounting for 84.04% of the total.

Among them, Holita is more "conspicuous". As of press time on January 31, 2024, Holita's total market value was only 5.765 billion yuan, and it expected a net profit loss attributable to the parent company in 2023 of 9 billion to 12 billion yuan. Even with the best estimates, the losses were higher than the total market capitalization.

Holita's main products include new display products (oled/tft/tn/stn/electronic paper, etc.), photoelectric sensing products, flexible circuit boards, etc. The products are widely used in consumer electronics, smart wearables, smart retail, smart cars and smart Industrial control and many other intelligent terminal fields.

Regarding the huge net profit loss in 2023, Holitai stated in the announcement that due to the slowdown in end market demand, the company's related product shipments have dropped significantly and production capacity utilization has dropped. In accordance with the provisions of the Accounting Standards for Business Enterprises, the company conducted impairment testing and analysis on receivables, inventories, fixed assets, goodwill and other assets. The impact of impairment on total profits was approximately 7.4 to 9.4 billion yuan.

It is worth mentioning that goodwill seems to be a "hot word". Flush data shows that among the 1,053 companies that forecast a drop in median net profit of more than 50%, 135 mentioned goodwill as the reason for the change in performance.

A partner of a well-known accounting firm told Observer.com that the formation of goodwill of most listed companies is related to their external mergers, acquisitions and reorganizations. Goodwill is the amount of consideration paid by the acquirer that is greater than the net assets of the acquiree, thus forming goodwill on the books. That is the premium the company paid on acquisition. Goodwill is generally tested and accrued at the end of the year. Some listed companies have experienced changes in performance due to the accrual of huge impairments of goodwill. The root cause of the goodwill problem lies in the high premium acquisitions generated in M&A and restructuring transactions. Guiding the market valuation back to a reasonable level also safeguards the interests of small and medium-sized investors. In addition to "ice",

also has a "fire" side in its performance forecast. Of the 1,476 companies that forecast a positive median net profit change, 1,072 companies forecast a median net profit increase of more than 50%, accounting for 72.63%.

For example, BYD, which has a market value of nearly 500 billion, estimates that its net profit attributable to its parent company in 2023 will be 29 billion to 31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.46% to 86.49%. Regarding the reasons for the performance growth, BYD stated in the announcement that the new energy vehicle industry will continue to maintain rapid growth in 2023, and the company's new energy vehicle sales have reached a record high, further consolidating its leading position as the world's number one new energy vehicle sales. Although competition in the industry has become more intense, the company has relied on its continuous improvement in brand power and rapid growth in overseas sales.

This month (January 19, 2024), the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the development of industry and information technology in 2023. The relevant person in charge at the press conference stated that in 2023, my country's automobile production and sales will both exceed 30 million units, with production and sales increasing by 11.6% and 12% year-on-year respectively, setting a record high, and maintaining the first place in the world for 15 consecutive years. Automobile exports reached 4.91 million units, a year-on-year increase of 57.9%, ranking first in the world for the first time.

"Going global" seems to have become one of the main driving forces for corporate performance growth.Flush data shows that among the 1,073 companies that forecast a median net profit increase of more than 50%, 82 mentioned the keyword "overseas" as the reason for the change in performance.

In addition, domestic personnel flow seems to accelerate in 2023. According to data from the China Railway Group, the national railways completed 3.68 billion passenger trips throughout the year. The number of passengers sent on peak days exceeded 20 million, and the average number of passengers sent per day exceeded 10 million. The number of passengers sent throughout the year and on peak days hit record highs. Against this background, Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway expects net profit attributable to the parent company to be 10.8 billion yuan to 12.2 billion yuan in 2023, compared with a loss of 576 million yuan in 2022.

Industry differences are obvious

As of midday on January 31, 2024, 2,731 companies that have disclosed performance forecasts can be classified into 221 industries according to the three-level industry classification. There are 32 industries with 20 or more companies.

There are obvious differences among these 32 industries. For example, a total of 22 companies in the thermal power industry disclosed performance forecasts, of which 19 forecasted a median net profit growth rate of more than 50%, accounting for 86.36%. Among them, Huadian International predicts that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 will be 4.15 billion to 4.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3478% to 4193% compared with 2022 (after restatement). Regarding performance growth, Huadian International stated in the announcement that it was mainly due to the decline in fuel prices and the incremental benefits contributed by newly put into production projects.

Moreover, among the 22 thermal power companies that disclosed performance forecasts, only one forecast a median net profit drop of more than 50%.

A total of 26 companies in the apparel industry have disclosed performance forecasts, of which 18 have forecasted a median net profit growth rate of more than 50%, accounting for as high as 69.23%. There are 4 companies with predicted median net profit decline of more than 50%, accounting for 15.38%. The overall forecast performance growth rate is relatively fast, and there are fewer companies with declining performance.

For example, Jiumuwang predicts that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 will be 190 million yuan to 245 million yuan, and in 2022 it will be -93.4188 million yuan. Regarding the reasons for turning losses into profits, Jiumu Wang said in the announcement that with the stable operation of the social economy and the gradual recovery of consumer market demand, the company has carried out business activities centered on the improvement of product power, brand power, and channel power, and achieved certain results.

National Bureau of Statistics data shows that in 2023, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles by units above designated size increased by 12.9% year-on-year. In December 2023, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles by units above designated size increased by 26.0% year-on-year. %.

In addition, the performance forecasts of the department store retail, other power supply equipment, traditional Chinese medicine, auto parts, photovoltaic equipment and other industries are "dazzling". The number of companies forecasting a median net profit growth rate of more than 50% is the number of companies forecasting a median net profit decline of more than 50%. More than twice the number of 50% companies. That is to say, the forecast companies mainly focus on higher growth.

However, the performance forecasts for industries such as residential development, instrumentation, consumer electronics components and assembly, communication network equipment and devices, military electronics, printed circuit boards, integrated circuit design, batteries, and in vitro diagnostics have not performed well. The main forecasting companies Mainly due to decline in performance.

For example, a total of 25 companies in in vitro diagnostics disclosed performance forecasts, 21 of which forecast a median net profit drop of more than 50%. For example, Oriental Biotech predicts that its net profit attributable to the parent company will be a loss of 380 million yuan in 2023, while it will be a profit of 2.068 billion yuan in 2022. Regarding the decline in performance, Oriental Biotech stated in the announcement that it was mainly due to changes in public health prevention and control policies at home and abroad, which caused a sharp decline in the market demand for COVID-19 antigen detection reagents, and related sales performance fell simultaneously.

There are 61 companies in the battery industry that have disclosed performance forecasts, of which 39 have forecast a median net profit decline of more than 50%, and only 8 have forecast a median net profit growth of more than 50%, which means that the performance forecasts are mainly companies with declines. For example, Tianci Materials expects net profit attributable to the parent company to be 1.8 billion to 2 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 65% to 68.5%.

In this regard, Tianci Materials stated in the announcement that the main reasons include changes in the supply and demand pattern of the new energy vehicle industry chain, intensified competition in mid- and upstream materials, and significant fluctuations in the prices of raw materials such as lithium carbonate. Although the company introduces new customers and adjusts customers Structure, deepening the integrated layout and other methods to expand the competitive advantages and market share of lithium-ion battery electrolytes, achieving a year-on-year increase of more than 20% in sales of electrolyte products. However, the price of electrolyte products has been significantly adjusted compared with 2022, and the unit profit has increased. decreased, resulting in a decline in the performance of this part of the business.

It is worth mentioning that although CATL also belongs to the battery industry in the third-level industry. However, it estimates that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 will be 42.5 billion yuan to 45.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.31% to 48.07%. In terms of

's stock price, although there is a positive relationship between the forecast performance and the rise and fall of the sector, it is not absolute.

For example, a total of 37 companies in the photovoltaic equipment sector have disclosed performance forecasts, 21 of which forecast a median net profit growth rate of more than 50%, and only 10 forecast a median net profit decline of more than 50%. The overall performance is mainly growth. But Flush shows that as of January 31, 2024, the share price of the photovoltaic equipment sector has fallen by 42.48% compared with the beginning of 2023. Wang Jiyue, a senior investment banker at

, told Observer.com that it may be overcapacity, price wars, etc. that have reduced investors’ expectations for the future. Performance and P/E ratios are only reflections of the past.

For another example, 20 companies in communication network equipment and devices disclosed performance forecasts, 11 of which forecast a median net profit decline of more than 50%, and only 5 forecast a median net profit growth rate of more than 50%, that is, companies with performance forecasts with a drop of more than 50%. Lord. But Flush shows that as of January 31, 2024, the stock price of the communication network equipment and devices sector has increased by 12.93% compared with the beginning of 2023, which is a better performance.