Jiemian News Reporter | Du Meng Jiemian News Editor | Song Yejun "Quick, quick, quick, find the code and go straight to it", "Subscribe for a sum and make a huge profit of 20%"... One month into the new year, as the Japanese stock market hit a record At a record high, QDII, which

Interface News Reporter | Du Meng

Interface News Editor | Song Yejun

"Quick, quick, quick, find the code and go straight to it", "Subscribe for a single purchase and make a huge profit of 20%"... One month into the new year, with the The Japanese stock market hit a record high, QDII, which deploys overseas assets, became popular, and many cross-border ETFs came to the stage. Christians who had never come into contact with QDII flocked to it.

Amid the hype, the on-market premium of some cross-border ETF products once exceeded 40%. Many hotly speculated products have been suspended for many consecutive days, experienced sharp rises and then plummeted, and evened out the premiums in a few days, trapping a lot of newbies. The abnormal hype of

cross-border ETF has even attracted the strong attention of regulators. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced that from January 22 to January 26, the Shanghai Stock Exchange monitored funds with high premiums such as E Fund MSCI US 50 ETF. Since

set sail in November 2006, qdii Fund has experienced 17 years of development. Why did this niche investment product with a total scale of just over 400 billion cause an uproar at this time? What are the next development directions and bottlenecks?

Popular fried chicken

"After the Nikkei, it was the Nasdaq 100, and now even the US 50 is being chased up and speculated." Since January 16, a "wealth creation myth" of overseas ETFs has suddenly started.

"Buy in the morning stud and sell after midday, a good 15% profit. I made a small profit of 10,000." In many forums, there are many "stud people" in the discussion posts of Nikkei ETF.

As the Japanese stock market hit a 34-year high, on January 15, without warning, China Summer Economics 225etf (513520.sh) suddenly broke out in the session, approaching the 10% daily limit. The 16th was an even crazier day. The ETF’s trading volume that day was 2.98 billion shares, and the trading volume reached 4.779 billion yuan. After four consecutive high premium announcements, on the 17th, China Asset Management announced a temporary suspension of trading in the Nikkei 225etf for one hour in early trading. Ultimately, the day's decline was 1.03%. On the 17th, the ETF’s turnover was 3.95 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 533.82%.

After two consecutive days of speculation, on January 18, Huaxia Jing 225etf finally returned to normal. On the 18th, the fund's intraday increase was only 0.9%, with a turnover of 1.172 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 157.99%.

Table: As of January 25, details of the scale of multiple overseas ETFs Source: wind, compiled by Interface News

In less than a month since the beginning of this year, the targets of capital speculation have ranged from the Nikkei 225 ETF to multiple Southeast Asian ETFs. The latest Moved to US 50ETF and Nasdaq 100ETF.

On January 26, E Fund MSCI US 50ETF once again issued a premium risk warning and temporary suspension announcement. The announcement showed that recently, the secondary market transaction price of the US 50ETF was significantly higher than the fund share reference net value (iopv). As of the close of trading on January 26, the closing price of the fund in the secondary market was 1.532 yuan, a premium of 42.46% relative to the reference net value of the fund shares that day. From January 23rd to 26th, E Fund has issued premium risk warning announcements for the US 50ETF for four consecutive days. As a product that can be traded at t+0,

has two prices in the ETF market. In addition to the quotation in the secondary market, there is also a "real-time reference net value" called iopv. iopv is a comprehensive estimate based on the real-time prices of holdings in the ETF's daily subscription and redemption list, and is updated every 15 seconds. When a product experiences a large premium, which may mean that the real-time price deviates significantly from the actual value, you need to pay attention to the risk of retracement.

From the perspective of trading volume, as of January 25, many overseas ETFs have experienced heavy trading in the past week. Taking the China Summer Business ETF as an example, the transaction volume in the past week was 12.935 billion yuan. As of January 25, the net asset value of the ETF was only 711 million yuan.

With the popularity of Nikkei ETFs, funds tracking the Nikkei Index have been advertised on the homepage of Ant Fortune’s financial management area. "Once Alipay is launched, who can compete with it?" With its large scale of retention and Internet traffic, Ant Fortune's recommendations often have a strong effect of attracting money. However, due to the large amount of funds bought, investors tend to buy at high prices, so Ant Fortune is called a "famous contrarian indicator" in the industry.

"There are not many shares at this time, and it is estimated that they will be robbed all at once." A person from the overseas product department of a fund company told Jiemian News that the tight qdii quota is a problem faced by all public offerings.

Nervous qdii quota

Why can etf-qdii’s on-market premium be as high as 40%? This is due to purchase restrictions. Generally speaking, when the ETF premium (price is higher than the net value), the ETF shares are purchased and sold to suppress the price increase; if the ETF is discounted (the price is lower than the net value), the ETF shares are purchased and redeemed to suppress the price decline. This arbitrage mechanism keeps the ETF price basically consistent with the ETF net value.

Qdii funds often have strict purchase restrictions due to foreign exchange quotas, which makes many investors "unable to buy what they want", so there will be high premiums on the market. According to

wind statistics, since the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Stock Exchange were closed on January 15, since January 16, 255 qdii funds in the entire market (different shares are calculated separately, the same below) have announced purchase restrictions. , among which 135 funds directly "closed their doors and closed their doors" and no longer accepted new funds from investors. Among the other funds that have suspended large-amount subscriptions, the lowest single-day subscription limit is only 50 yuan.

"The main reason is that the QDII quota is tight. Currently, the quotas in the hands of various financial institutions are still approved in July last year. There are only these amounts in total, and we can only move between various QDII products." An industry insider told Jiemian News reporter , for public offering managers, obtaining the quota is equivalent to expanding the scale.

"For example, if we are given a quota of 100 million US dollars, the scale of our product will immediately increase from the current 78 to 1.5 billion." The person said.

In order to alleviate the high premium in the secondary market, E Fund announced its decision to increase the single-day cumulative subscription limit for msci US 50etf. Starting from January 24, the subscription limit will be gradually increased from 3 million to 50 million. After the purchase restrictions were lifted, the fund's shares soared from 58.8926 million shares on January 24 to 129 million shares on January 26. On the 26th, all 50 million shares were filled.

Data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange show that as of December 31, 2023, a total of 53 public funds have obtained QDII quotas, with a total cumulative approved quota of US$48.26 billion. The latest quota update was on July 27, 2023.

Figure: Approved qdii quotas for some public funds Unit: 100 million US dollars Source: State Administration of Foreign Exchange

Among them, E Fund, Huaxia, Southern, Guangfa, Harvest and other five public funds have approved quotas in the top five, with 7.68 billion respectively. US dollars, US$6.68 billion, US$5.94 billion, US$4.28 billion, US$4.19 billion.

In August 2006, the "Notice of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Issues Concerning Foreign Exchange Management of Overseas Securities Investments by Fund Management Companies" was released, clarifying and standardizing the foreign exchange management system for overseas securities investments by fund companies.

In November of the same year, Huaan Fund launched my country's first qdii fund-Huaan International Allocation. Since then, my country’s qdii fund has officially set sail.

After 17 years of development, the number, scale and categories of qdii funds have undergone major changes: the number and scale have continued to rise, investment categories have become more refined, and investment areas have become wider, providing investors with richer options. Investment options.

Table: Main investment areas or markets of qdii funds, as of 2023/12/31 Source: wind,

wind data compiled by Interface News shows that as of January 25 this year, there are 575 qdii products in the market (different shares are calculated separately), The total scale is 401.796 billion yuan.

According to the main investment scope and investment proportion of qdii funds, it can be divided into four major categories: qdii stock funds, qdii hybrid funds, qdii bond funds, and qdii alternative investment funds. Judging from the number and scale of these four major categories of qdii funds, qdii stock funds all occupy a dominant position. As of January 25, the number of qdii stock funds was 348, with a scale of 340.332 billion yuan, accounting for 84.7% of the total scale.

Among them, etf is the protagonist of qdii stock type. As of January 25, the net asset value of E Fund’s CSI Overseas Internet ETF was 32.172 billion yuan, the net asset value of China Hengsheng Internet Technology ETF was 27.117 billion yuan, and the net asset value of China Hengsheng Technology ETF was 21.972 billion yuan.

Table: As of January 25, details of overseas ETFs with a scale of more than 5 billion yuan Source: Wind Interface News Compilation

From the perspective of scale, qdii funds show the effect of "one-nine differentiation", and there are 392 qdii funds with a scale of 2 Below 100 million yuan.

The niche market is about to usher in many new players

In 2023, when the domestic market continues to be sluggish, the overall performance of active equity funds and index funds is poor, but the qdii products that have heavily invested in overseas markets have brought excess returns to investors, which is also The qdii fund manager, who had been on the bench for many years, was flattered. Data from

wind shows that from 2020 to 2023, the number of newly established qdii funds are 14, 33, 31, and 46 respectively. This year, as the qdii market is booming, more and more public offerings want to get a share of the pie.

"We currently want to avoid the highly competitive tracks such as the Nasdaq and Hang Seng Technology and make some unique qdii products on the market." The person in charge of the public index department of a Sino-foreign joint venture told Jiemian News.

The relevant person in charge of the South China Medium-sized Fund Company said that in the context of intensified competition in the industry, broadening the scope of investment targets may bring more opportunities to the company. But he also said that obtaining a QDII license is relatively difficult for small and medium-sized companies, and building an investment research platform for overseas investment also requires considerable investment. "If the allocated fund managers do not have in-depth research on overseas markets and use the idea of ​​investing in A-shares to invest in overseas companies, it will be miserable.

Judging from the investment targets of qdii funds, currently, domestic qdii funds have little influence on the Asian market Investments are mainly concentrated in Hong Kong stocks. In addition to Hong Kong, Mainland China, and Taiwan, the regional asset allocation in East Asia is concentrated in a few limited countries such as South Korea, Japan, and India.

"The regional allocation strategy has always been invested by qdii funds The core strategy, which country or region to invest money in and how much to invest, is crucial to qdii fund managers. Compared with the domestic market, qdii fund managers need to pay more attention to market front-running, geopolitical and other risks. "Hu Chao, Tianhong Vietnam Market Fund Manager, said at the recent 2024 investment strategy meeting.

In the view of the fund manager, although the amount of qdii funds has increased significantly, it is still in a "niche" position in the entire fund market. Overseas investment Factors such as small scale and insufficient understanding of overseas investments still plague the development of qdii.

"Qdii has never been an investment type that is easily accepted by the mass market. This is related to everyone's investment needs, awareness of investment targets, risk preference levels, etc. There are relationships. "A fund manager told reporters that in general, there are three main factors that restrict the development of qdii funds. First, domestic investors do not know enough about overseas markets; second, qdii quotas are tight, which limits scale development; third, the performance of qdii products is uneven. It affects the investment experience of investors."