Global temperatures in 2023 have already hit the ceiling since industrialization, Source: noaa
The EU climate monitoring agency Copernicus Climate Change Service (c3s) reported that climate change has intensified heat waves, droughts and wildfires around the world, and pushed global thermometers higher At 1.48 degrees Celsius, above the pre-industrial baseline, 2023 was the hottest year on record , with the increase in Earth's surface temperature almost exceeding the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius.
"This is also the first year that all days have been one degree warmer than pre-industrial times," said Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
Meanwhile the Copernicus Climate Change Service predicts that the 12-month period to January or February 2024 will be "1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels".
How global warming manifests itself in different regions (1993 to 2022), Picture source: noaa
However, even if, as some scientists predict, the average surface temperature of the earth exceeds 1.5 degrees Celsius in 2024 , this does not mean that the world Failure to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming below that threshold. This will only happen after several consecutive years above the 1.5°C benchmark, and even then the 2015 Paris Agreement allows for the possibility of lowering the Earth's temperature after a period of "overshoot."
Such a global warming peak is likely also due to the recent El Niño phenomenon that is approaching its peak. Decades of observations show that El Niño's sea surface temperature anomalies (differences from long-term averages) typically peak around December or early January. According to the reliable long-term sea surface temperature data set (ersstv5), sea surface temperatures in the main monitoring area of the tropical Pacific (niño-3.4 zone) were 2.1 °C above the 1991-2020 average in December.
The purple represents the temperature index curve of this El Niño event, and the gray represents the El Niño events since 1950. It is not difficult to find that this El Niño phenomenon is close to its peak. Image source: noaa
The current prediction is that by the end of summer and early autumn this year, the probability of La Niña will exceed 50-60%, and many computer climate models predict that La Niña will develop. Of course, La Niña has its own set of global impacts, including a trend toward increased Atlantic hurricane activity. We will be keeping a close eye on conditions in the tropical Pacific as El Niño weakens over the coming months.
noaa Climate Prediction Center forecasts of three possible enso states for the next eight sliding 3-month averages (e.g., January-March for JFM). The blue bar indicates the possibility of La Niña, the gray bar indicates neutral, and the red bar indicates El Niño. Source: noaa
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