2024 The results of Taiwan's "general election" have been released. It can be said that some people are happy and some are sad. However, for Ko Wenzhe and his People's Party, this result is neither a win nor a loss.
Although Ke Wenzhe lost to Lai Qingde, the People's Party won 8 "legislator" seats. Although these 8 seats are nothing compared to the 52 seats of the KMT and the 51 seats of the Democratic Progressive Party, since the blue and green parties cannot exceed half of the seats in the "Legislative Yuan", the 8 seats of the People's Party have become a key minority. In other words, if the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party want to pass proposals that are beneficial to them in the "Legislative Yuan", they must try their best to win over the People's Party. Whoever the People's Party supports will have more say in the "Legislative Yuan". Therefore, although the Popular Party lost the regional leadership election, it became popular in the "Legislative Yuan". This is a plus for the Popular Party to expand its influence and continue to participate in "general elections" in the future.
As a new political party that was only established a few years ago, the People's Party has become the third largest political party on the island. It has formed a tripartite confrontation with the blue and green parties, so it naturally has its own unique advantages.
According to analysis by the island’s media, Ke Wenzhe and his People’s Party have three major advantages.
First, through this election, the People’s Party can receive a one-time election subsidy of NT$110 million, plus an annual political party subsidy of NT$150 million. This huge sum of money will become an important fund for the People’s Party. . You must know that elections on the island are very expensive. If you have enough political party assets, you can be handy when building momentum for the election, and there will not be a situation where "a penny can stump a hero";
Secondly, after Lai Qingde was elected , cross-strait relations may become increasingly tense, and the lives of the middle and lower class people on the island will be seriously affected. There is also a situation where young people in Taiwan are facing military service and may be sent to the battlefield as cannon fodder by the Democratic Progressive Party. And Ke Wenzhe is very popular among young people in Taiwan. These people can become the base for Ke Wenzhe to target the 2026 local elections and the 2028 "general election";
Third, if the DPP continues to be in power, the challenges Lai Qingde will face will be greater than those during the Tsai Ing-wen period. What's more, the call to "remove the DPP" will only become louder than it is now, which is undoubtedly good news for Ke Wenzhe and the People's Party.
Of course, Ke Wenzhe and his People’s Party not only have three major advantages, but also face three major challenges.
First, the People's Party lacks a successor echelon and faces the dilemma of having no successors. Ko Wenzhe said bluntly, "If I resign as party chairman due to defeat, the People's Party will be torn apart." Compared with the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party, which have a complete succession echelon, the People's Party is more like a party of Ke Wenzhe, with the entire party revolving around Ke Wenzhe. If something unexpected happens to Ke Wenzhe, it will be difficult for the People's Party to elect a successor that everyone expects, and it is likely to fall apart due to internal conflicts;
Secondly, compared to the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party, the People's Party's influence in local areas is very limited. If If the Popular Party wants to participate in local elections, it must find another way to break through;
Third, the Popular Party must prevent others from poaching. When Ke Wenzhe participated in the 2024 "general election", the Kuomintang proposed "abandoning Ke and Bao Hou", hoping that supporters of the People's Party would vote for Hou Youyi. During the regional "legislator" election, Taichung Mayor Lu Xiuyan of the Kuomintang supported Cai Biru of the People's Party, winning applause from many People's Party supporters. As a rising star of the Kuomintang, Lu Xiuyan may participate in the 2028 "general election". At that time, whether some supporters of the Kuomintang will be poached and vote for Lu Xiuyan, this is something Ke Wenzhe has to guard against.
Ke Wenzhe lost to Lai Qingde in this "election", but he was not discouraged. Instead, he was very confident and shouted to his supporters to continue to support him four years later. This means that Ke Wenzhe will still stand up and participate in the "election" four years later. Former "legislator" Shen Fuxiong said that when Ke Wenzhe makes a comeback four years later, there will be no "blue and white combination" or bailout, and he will not make a mistake a second time. The reason is that the Popular Party is developing rapidly and will be stronger in four years, and will absorb many supporters from the blue and green parties. The DPP has more supporters and a relatively stable basic base. Even if Ko Wenzhe steals some of its supporters, it won't matter. However, the KMT does not have as many supporters as the DPP, and its basic base is unstable and cannot withstand Ko Wenzhe's "hurt".
Ke Wenzhe claims to be deeply green at heart. In order to compete for the 2028 "general election", will he move closer to the Democratic Progressive Party and launch a "green-white alliance"? In this regard, Xu Guotai, the founding father of the Democratic Progressive Party, believes that "green-white cooperation" is absolutely unacceptable. The People's Party will surely perish if it moves closer to the Democratic Progressive Party, because according to historical experience, if the opposition party supports the ruling party, it is destined to become one of its Become a vassal until you perish.
There are many such examples. For example, the powerful People's Party supported the ruling Kuomintang, but gradually became a bubble. There are also "powers of the times" that moved closer to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and also declined. The reason is not complicated, because if voters directly support the ruling party, why vote for an opposition party that is a vassal of the ruling party? It is difficult for such an opposition party to persuade voters to vote for itself.
Xu Guotai pointed out that the duty of the opposition party is to supervise the ruling party, rather than scolding the opposition party. If the small parties on the island want to have room to survive, they must stand opposite the ruling party, so that they can survive in the long term.
If Ko Wenzhe and his People's Party understand this truth, they will naturally not move closer to the DPP, nor will they engage in any "green-white combination" in the "general election" four years later. In fact, for Ke Wenzhe, if you want the People's Party to become the ruling party, cooperation with the opposition parties is the best choice. When the Kuomintang is in opposition, cooperate with the Kuomintang, and when the DPP is in opposition, cooperate with the DPP, just like " Sun Wu in "The Romance of the Three Kingdoms", when Cao Wei was strong, he allied with Shu to fight against Wei, and when Shu Han threatened, he allied with Wei to fight against Shu.
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