According to Maoyan Professional Edition, as of January 13, 6 films have been scheduled to be released on the first day of the Lunar New Year (February 10), namely "Hot", "Flying Life 2", "Mr. Red Carpet" and "We" "Shake the Sun Together" and "Bear Infested: Reverse Time and Space" and "Article 20".
The main creators of this Spring Festival film are all well-established. Jia Ling, Han Han, Shen Teng, Zhang Yimou, Ning Hao, Andy Lau and others participated in the creation of this Spring Festival film.
Currently, the number of people who want to watch the animated movie "Bear Bears: Reversal of Time" ranks first in Maoyan. This is the 10th theatrical film in the Haunted Bear series and the 10th anniversary of the Haunted Bear film. Among the producers and distributors behind the film are listed companies such as Hengdian Film and Television (603103.sh), China Film (600977.sh), and Wanda Film (002739.sz).
"Flying Life 2" directed by Han Han and starring Shen Teng, Fan Chengcheng and Yin Zheng has also attracted much attention. The film's predecessor "Flying Life" was released during the Spring Festival in 2019, with a cumulative box office of 1.728 billion. China Film, Hengdian Film and Television and Bona Pictures (001330.sz) participated in the production and distribution of the film.
"Hot and Spicy" directed and starred by Jia Ling is also a highlight of this Spring Festival. Jia Ling recently publicly stated that she lost 100 pounds for the film. In the previous 2021 Spring Festival, "Hello, Li Huanying" directed and starred by Jia Ling had a box office record of 5.4 billion yuan. China Film and Alibaba Pictures (Beijing) Co., Ltd. are the producers of the film.
Sun Jiashan, associate researcher at the Central Academy of Culture and Tourism Management and a critic signed by the Beijing Federation of Literary and Art Circles, believes that the composition of this Spring Festival stall is still very rich. The previous films of "Bear Bears: Reversing Time and Space" performed well during the Spring Festival every year, with the support of Fantawild Park and offline derivatives; "Article 20" is a reality-themed film directed by Zhang Yimou; "Hot" "Hot" is a further breakthrough in the sports theme genre based on "Hello, Li Huanying", which is also worth looking forward to.
This Spring Festival release may indeed not have top-notch IPs like "The Wandering Earth 2", but the supply of genres is relatively abundant and the strengths of each film are relatively close, so the competition will be very fierce. It is estimated that the box office will be in a "fight for it" situation, and the changes during the entire Spring Festival period will also change greatly due to factors such as word-of-mouth.
The New Year's Day show before the Spring Festival has just set a new box office record for the New Year's Day show in Chinese film history. It not only marks the perfect mark for the film market in 2023, but also heralds a good start for 2024.
For the Chinese film market, the past 2023 is a year of rejuvenation. Looking at the box office market, domestic movies accounted for more than 80% of the total box office of 54.915 billion yuan, becoming the core pillar of the market; the total number of moviegoers in the year reached 1.299 billion, and movie consumption continued to decline. In addition, the box office contribution rate of the top 10 films has returned to less than 50%, box office concentration has eased, and the industry structure is developing in a healthier direction. A number of market data together form a bellwether for the industry's continued improvement and boost confidence in the film industry. Liu Peng, president of
Maoyan Research Institute, analyzed: "From a data point of view, the total annual box office in 2023 has reached the peak in the past four years. Although there is still a certain gap from 2019, the overall market performance is remarkable, with box office, The year-on-year increase in the number of visitors has boosted the confidence of the industry." Behind the continued improvement of the
market is the joint efforts of all parties in the industry. The promotion and implementation of policies such as public welfare screenings, phased exemption from special funds for the development of the national film industry, and continuous special fund subsidies for the development of the national film industry have effectively cultivated the audience's movie-watching habits; at the supply level, creators have accurately grasped the audience's needs and produced excellent domestic films. Frequent releases, diverse genres bloomed, which effectively led to a year-on-year increase in the number of movie-watching steps per capita throughout the year; in terms of publicity and distribution, many films explored diversified publicity and distribution plans through ritual marketing, branch distribution, etc., further driving audiences to purchase tickets need.
Regarding the film market in 2024, Sun Jiashan believes that although the number of films that may be released will be slightly reduced, the most important thing is quality, and the number of top films has not actually decreased much. Because for the existing schedule structure and screening model, the redundancy in film production capacity is still relatively sufficient.
Young playwright and director Xiang Kai also believes that high-quality films and films with good reputation in 2024 will still be favored by consumers, and the entire box office market will also perform well. In his view, the film market reform system and support policies launched by relevant national departments in 2023 will also help the development of the film market in 2024. For example, the censorship efficiency will be greatly improved, which will help production units produce faster and better products. Movie.
Recently, Everbright Securities used the ticket price method to predict the box office in 2024. The conservative estimate of the box office in 2024 is 54.93 billion yuan, the neutral estimate is 58.88 billion yuan, and the optimistic estimate is 63.01 billion yuan. A good start to the New Year's Day schedule laid the foundation for the restoration of the film and television market in 2024.
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