There are less than three days left before the 2024 leader election in Taiwan, China. The election situation on the island is actually basically clear.
Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party and Hou Youyi of the Kuomintang are tied. Judging from the momentum of the election and previous poll data, Ke Wenzhe of the People's Party has basically missed the opportunity to become the new leader of Taiwan.
Against this background, the competition between the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party has become increasingly fierce. Since the DPP is the ruling party, it can use some political tools to support elections. At the same time, previous poll data showed that Lai Qingde is still ahead of Hou Youyi's , so the Kuomintang is also nervous about this.
Objectively speaking, the current election situation on the island is that those who demand the removal of the Democratic Progressive Party account for more than 60% of all voters. Logically speaking, it is logical to oust the Democratic Progressive Party.
But the problem now is that those who want to delist the DPP are divided into two factions by the Kuomintang and the People's Party. The Kuomintang has more than 30% of its supporters, while Ke Wenzhe of the People's Party also has about 20% of his supporters. This This caused the support of the DPP to be removed from the shelves to be artificially divided.
If Ke Wenzhe and Hou Youyi campaigned with all their strength respectively, then it is very likely that both parties would clearly like to delist the DPP, but in the end the DPP took advantage of the differences between the opposition parties and succeeded in continuing. Governing.
Because of this, the Kuomintang candidate Hou Youyi finally expressed the greatest sincerity at the last moment and called for "blue and white co-governance." Later, Zhu Lilun also echoed Hou Youyi and once again called out "blue and white governance" .
At present, Ke Wenzhe has not yet made a clear response to the KMT’s call. However, from the KMT’s perspective, this sincerity has been given to the greatest extent. If Ke Wenzhe does not respond to this call, it will actually be detrimental to himself and the People's Party.
Of course, from the perspective of the Kuomintang, in order to win the next leadership election in Taiwan, we cannot place all our hopes on the Kuomintang. Although the Democratic Progressive Party is in power in Taiwan and can use public opinion and other means to support elections, the Kuomintang is not without any advantages.
In the "nine-in-one" local county and city elections in Taiwan last year, the Kuomintang had won seats in 13 local counties and cities, which was a huge victory.
In other words, although the DPP can use their power advantage to support the election, the Kuomintang can also use the power they currently have to support the election.
Under this background, if the efforts of various counties and cities can be mobilized to help Hou Youyi canvass votes, it will have a great impact on the subsequent election.
Of course, this does not mean that with the support of Hou Youyi from various counties and cities in Taiwan, Hou's supporters will suddenly increase. It means that in addition to the number of supporters, the turnout is also very important in determining the election. the elements of.
In addition, in this Taiwan region leadership election, after the initial split, the Kuomintang is now basically united.
Some people paid to directly buy the front pages of the island's major media to support the Kuomintang from public opinion. There are also former bosses of the Kuomintang who are running around to persuade more political forces to support Hou Youyi.
This fully reflects the current strong voice of Taiwanese public opinion demanding the removal of the Democratic Progressive Party. It also reflects the many troubles and direct harm caused to cross-strait relations and the economic development of Taiwan due to the DPP's rule. , prompting more and more Taiwanese people to wake up and want to escape from the clutches of the Democratic Progressive Party.
There is no doubt that when this kind of electoral momentum spreads to the entire Taiwan, even if the DPP holds the advantage of governing power, it will actually be difficult to go against the public opinion of the entire Taiwan region.
From this perspective, although the poll data "before the shutdown" showed that Lai Qingde was still in the lead, the Kuomintang's recent intra-party unity and the increasingly turbulent public opinion on the island demanded that the DPP be removed from the shelves. The strong voice still adds a lot of confidence to Hou Youyi's ability to win the next leadership election in Taiwan.
Obviously, whether the Kuomintang can win depends on the one hand how many supporters they can mobilize and whether they can achieve unity within the party, but on the other hand it also depends on the DPP’s perverse behavior during the eight years in power, which has given rise to The harm caused to the people of Taiwan.
Whether it is uniting the People's Party or organizing more voters to come out to vote, it all ultimately depends on how strongly the more than 23 million Taiwanese compatriots hate the DPP.
In this sense, this election is not only a test for the Kuomintang, but also a test of public opinion on the island. Whether the vast majority of Taiwan compatriots are willing to stand up and vote for the future of Taiwan and their own vital interests will determine the outcome of this election.
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