[About the author] Pinecone comes from a private equity champion team with a cumulative scale of 10 digits. 13 years of investment experience, good at bargain hunting and restructuring, now the manager of Sunshine Private Equity Fund.
A-share investors are particularly envious of U.S. stocks, which often have bull markets. Now we may be envious of Japan and India next door. Just on Wednesday, the Japanese stock market hit a new high. Now there are very few reports and almost no one can see the reason. Everyone knows that A-shares are still very difficult for fear of affecting everyone’s ability to hand in homework at night!
Let’s talk about three topics. The first topic is the new high of the Japanese stock market. The second topic is whether the decline will accelerate in the near future. Will there be a huge negative impact if market rumors snowball on a large scale? The third one is that we discuss when a certain team will take action ~
Let’s talk about the first one first. The Japanese stock market hit a new high, a new high in 91 years
The main reason is that they have emerged from the era of low desires and the economy has begun to cycle. I got positive feedback, so everything was done. Then our big China, our destiny is up to us. The national destiny does not say it is over, and we cannot give up now. We are a large country, and the stock market will also get out of this stage as the fundamentals are expected to improve. Sexual rebound, even better, but now, we can only say don't give up!
The second one is that it has been rumored recently that some snowball products may be launched on a large scale in the near future, triggering a series of sell-offs in A-shares.
The statement is actually very marketable and everyone likes to hear it. That view is that This kind of snowball product linked to CSI 1,000 and CSI 500 is worth more than 200 billion. Of course, no one knows the specific scale. The regulator has this data. Some analysts have calculated that every 100-point drop will bring concentrated selling pressure of about 10 billion in funds, so they are worried about the selling pressure.
This analysis seems reasonable, but it ignores one of the most basic principles, which is that Snowball products, as derivatives, are more of a hedging tool. Generally, brokerages will provide stock hedging combinations for the products.
Therefore, as long as the scale of this total snowball product and supervision are not reduced or stopped on a large scale, there will not be large-scale selling pressure on such products, and it will be more about renewing the old with the new
The third one Question, when will a certain team take action?
Currently, there are two major forward-looking indexes that we should focus on. One is the fund's heavy holdings, and the second is the CSI 1,000 Index. In the video at noon on Wednesday, we said that the fund's heavy holdings index accelerates its decline every time it bottoms out. Funds cut their positions, the market is extremely weak, and the selling pressure is released the fastest, which brings about the time when the market is likely to rebound. As shown in the figure below, now it seems that the funds' heavy holdings have stopped falling, but they have not rebounded. We need a A big positive line.
The same is true for CSI 1,000. Since the scale of the snowball products linked to CSI 1,000 is still relatively large, and it is possible to be the first to approach this entry range, so if this index can rebound, it also means that a certain team Take action.
To sum up, even though the outside world is good, we have a hard time, but these concerns about snowball knocking in the market are essentially logically flawed, and when supervision will take action, it will focus on the funds’ heavy holdings and the CSI 1,000 Index. The two indexes are watching to see when they can rebound first. In terms of
research, the recent direction of
a stocks is unclear. Big funds are beginning to focus on the market after the Spring Festival. The Spring Festival is usually a prosperous time for consumer electronics. With new products such as aipc, mr, vision, etc., the sector is constantly driven by time, and the sector is expected to be active repeatedly. According to research and tracking, the company, as the leader in notebook structural parts, has seen the effect of inventory depletion in the PC industry, with shipments rebounding for two consecutive quarters. The company has deeply benefited from the recovery of the industry and the rise of AIPC. The core customer is Lenovo, the "domestic leader in magnesium alloy notebook structural parts." ” listed company.
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