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text | Lu Yan Business Review
New energy purchase tax policy adjustment, who will be the brunt?
Recently, three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the State Administration of Taxation issued the "Announcement on Adjusting the Technical Requirements for New Energy Vehicle Products with Reduction or Exemption of Vehicle Purchase Tax" (hereinafter referred to as the "Announcement"). This adjustment of the regulations has once again triggered The public is concerned and even worried about the small and mini car segment.
The reason is that the cruising range must not be less than 200KM, and the system mass energy density of the power battery should not be less than 125Wh/kg. These requirements have the greatest impact on small and micro electric vehicles, led by Wuling Hongguang MINIEV.
For a long time, the entry-level battery life of small and mini cars has been 120KM, which is still far from the 200KM battery life. Not only that, some small and micro cars that meet the battery life standards are also stuck on the latest battery system energy density standards. The power battery supply chain for small and micro vehicles is facing a new round of upgrades as a whole.
However, the "Announcement" also made an opening for small and micro cars. Under the conditions that the low-temperature cruising range attenuation rate does not exceed 35% and the battery system energy density is not less than 95Wh/kg, the cruising range requirements for pure electric passenger vehicles are relaxed to 120KM, low temperature performance is of great significance.
Starting from June 1, 2024, models that do not meet the announced technical requirements will be withdrawn from the "Tax Reduction Catalog", and the six months from January 1 to May 31 will become a transition period for car companies. How can small and mini cars, led by Wuling Hongguang MINI, overcome this transition period?
The purchase tax threshold blocks small and micro cars
The "Announcement" issued this time clearly puts forward new requirements for new energy vehicle product technologies. The policy adjustment has affected the micro electric vehicle market, led by Wuling Hongguang MINIEV.
In recent years, Wuling Hongguang MINIEV, Changan Lumin, Geely Panda and other small and micro cars have become ubiquitous, and are ridiculed as "baby buses" by consumers. Micro electric vehicles have achieved impressive results due to their low purchase threshold and “all-in-one” features. In 2022, Wuling Hongguang MINIEV sold 554,000 units, becoming the sales champion. It was even sold overseas this year and continues to expand its market share.
Today, the "Announcement" puts forward new requirements: the cruising range of pure electric passenger cars is adjusted from the previous 100KM to no less than 200KM; the system mass energy density of the power battery is also adjusted from no less than 95Wh/kg to no less than 125Wh /kg.
focuses on the cruising range. Different versions of Wuling Hongguang MINIEV have a cruising range of 120KM to 215KM, Changan Lumin has a cruising range of 155KM to 301KM, and Chery QQ Ice Cream has a cruising range of 120KM to 205KM. Only one of these hot-selling mini-car models complies with the new regulations, and its entry-level models will be greatly restricted. Geely Panda has just reached the passing line of the latest standards, with a maximum battery life of 200KM.
Although some versions of small and micro cars have initially met the requirements for battery life, battery energy density has become an obstacle. Among the several small and mini cars mentioned above, the Changan Lumin Xiangqin 205KM battery life version has a battery energy density of 110.0Wh/kg, which fails to meet the requirement of 125Wh/kg; the same is true for the 24 Geely Panda Knight models with a 200KM battery life. It just meets the cruising range standard, but due to the battery energy density of 120.7Wh/kg, it is still difficult to pass the test.
These small and mini cars that fail to meet product technical requirements will soon become the targets of optimization. At present, the price of micro electric vehicles with a range of more than 200KM is generally more than 40,000, while the starting price of a vehicle with a range of 120KM is around 30,000. For a long time, new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policies and low purchase thresholds have stimulated consumers' desire to purchase to a certain extent.
In this regard, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Car Association, said after the announcement that currently pure electric passenger cars with a driving range of less than 200km are mainly A00-class cars, accounting for 39% of A00-class electric car sales in 2023. The proportion is relatively high. To increase the cruising range, you need to install more batteries. To increase the cruising range to 50 kilometers, you need at least 5-hour batteries, which is also a price difference of about 4,000 yuan. Consumers in the county and rural markets are very fond of this low price.
Although the adjusted purchase tax policy will exclude some small and mini cars, in the long run, the policy changes may further promote the expansion of small and mini cars in the sinking market.
Low temperature performance has become a life-saving straw
However, this policy adjustment has left an opening for small and micro cars. The "Announcement" shows that if the attenuation rate of low-temperature cruising range does not exceed 35%, the energy density of the battery system is not less than 95Wh/kg, and the cruising range requirement for pure electric passenger vehicles is relaxed to 120KM. The specific test standards for
low-temperature cruising range attenuation rate are currently unclear. However, judging from the feedback from car owners, the endurance of small and mini cars is not greatly affected in the southern winter. In this year's cold winter in the north, the small and mini cars that most car owners use for transportation are beginning to be overwhelmed. Although car owners generally do not have high requirements for battery life, however, in low temperatures, the battery life of these small and micro cars is greatly reduced, and the charging frequency is greatly increased. Charging every two days or one day can meet daily needs.
Ji Nan from Henan is the owner of Wuling Hongguang MINIEV. He said, "This car is generally good, but the battery is not resistant to use in winter. I ran 40 kilometers today and the battery is 58% left. The heater has half the mileage. None of them are turned on. With the current temperature, the battery life is 170 kilometers, and the speed is within 60 kilometers per hour. If you turn on the first level of air conditioning, you can only run up to 80 kilometers. If you drive faster, the battery will be visible to the naked eye."
But consumers and sales said Panda mini, which has good battery life, is also being tested by low temperatures. Also in Henan, Lin Yu said that his Panda Mini offers a 40% discount around 0 degrees and a 50% discount when the air conditioner is turned on. However, I run on an elevated highway, which consumes more power. If I run in the city, it shouldn’t consume so much power. It’s great in summer. , one to one, but the main reason for buying this is that it is the cheapest endurance bear in the same class, and it can remotely turn on the air conditioner in winter."
Xiao Dong, who lives in the Northeast, said that his Changan Lumin with a range of 205km, in Shenyang's minus 9 degrees weather, The battery life is starting to be discounted in half. "I ran for 25 kilometers, with an average speed between 80 and 90. I turned on the heater throughout the whole process, with the wind speed at level 3 and the highest temperature. I started running from full power, and when I stopped, it showed that the remaining kilometers were 155. It is still recommended to buy a high-end battery."
The cruising range is discounted in winter, the battery charging speed is slower, and the air-conditioning and heating system consumes a lot of power... This is actually a common problem when new energy vehicles are in low-temperature environments. For small and micro car owners, their feelings are even stronger. Some car owners dare not turn on the heater when driving and wear hats and gloves in the car. This stubborn problem that is difficult to overcome for new energy vehicles is mainly determined by the characteristics of liquid lithium-ion batteries.
Looking at it this way, although low-temperature performance may be a breakthrough for small and micro cars with low endurance, low-temperature test is a major difficulty.
A new wave of "price reduction rush"?
Before the new policy is implemented on June 1 next year, these small and mini cars that do not meet the purchase tax exemption policy may usher in a wave of price reductions to clear inventory. After all, the audience for such small and mini cars is often very price-sensitive. If additional purchase tax is required, most consumers may not be willing to pay for it.
Wuling Motors may have seen the trend of policy changes in advance and taken a preemptive strike. The third-generation Wuling Hongguang MINIEV Macaron, launched on November 14, has a range of 215km and has fast charging. The battery energy density is unknown and is priced at 46,800 yuan.
Consumers have also felt the upcoming changes in the market. Ye Ling, who plans to buy the 24-model Wuling Hongguang MINIEV, hesitates between the two ranges of 170km and 215km. Some car owners in the circle of car enthusiasts said, "Low battery life will be eliminated soon. The purchase tax will not be exempted from June 1 next year. The countdown to the life span has begun. You can buy it, but not at this price." This made Ye Ling think. Wait and see mood.
It can be seen that the impact of policy adjustments on the prices of small and micro cars determines the choices of Ye Ling and other currency holders. However, Lujiu Business Review learned during a visit to offline stores that at present, car companies with small and micro models have not yet made corresponding price adjustments for the low-endurance version of this model.
has more than half a year left for car companies. This adjustment in product technical requirements has forced companies to "change their blood". Whether it’s cruising range, energy density or low-temperature performance, they all revolve around batteries. Among small and micro cars, lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium batteries are the main force. Since the beginning of this year, battery costs have been falling due to the plummeting price of lithium phosphate.
Secretary-General Cui Dongshu also said that the adjustments in the "Announcement" are not small and will be conducive to the high-quality development of the industry. The biggest impact of this policy is on A00-class passenger cars, and the ones that benefit most are high-priced and low-tech niche products. As the price of lithium carbonate falls, the space for sodium batteries is severely compressed. Therefore, policies should mainly focus on rural acceptance of micro electric vehicles, pragmatically lower the threshold for rural car purchase, and make electric vehicles more practical.
The increase in driving range of pure electric passenger vehicles complies with the development trend of technology. Due to changes in policy thresholds, most micro-electric vehicles need to readjust their cruising range layout, and the existing entry-level layout needs to be improved. In mid-December, Lujiu Business Review asked public relations personnel from Wuling Hongguang in Liuzhou, Guangxi for countermeasures regarding this policy adjustment. As of the time of publication, the other party had not responded.
After this cold winter, can small and mini cars usher in spring again? Who can have the last laugh? The answer is not expected to be revealed for at least a year.
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