Direct News: Mr. Chen, the US has upgraded its export control to China, especially in the field of semiconductors, what do you think will be the consequences?
special commentator Chen Bing: What will happen to , the stock market has given advance notice. Global chip stocks, including U.S. companies, fell after the U.S. expanded sanctions on China’s semiconductor industry. Looking at the stock market, stocks of four semiconductor-linked companies are all down.
is first a semiconductor investment company, such as Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ; second is a semiconductor material company, such as Fanlin Group; third is a semiconductor equipment company, such as AMD and ASML; the fourth is chip processing and manufacturing Enterprises, such as Samsung Electronics , TSMC. TSMC shares were particularly miserable, with the biggest drop since 1994, down more than 8%. If we look at these four types of companies geographically, there are American companies, mainly investment and equipment companies; European companies, mainly equipment companies; Asian companies, mainly chip manufacturing companies, such as South Korea Samsung , TSMC in Taiwan, in mainland China, SMIC , etc.; there are also various companies that use chips, with a wider range and a global presence. It can be said that the U.S. upgrade of chip export control to China has affected the whole body and caused the global semiconductor industry to shudder.
There is a basic market logic here. The United States increases restrictions on chip exports to China, which is to set up cards for the big market of China and reduce supply. The reduction in the use of chips in the Chinese market means that chip manufacturers have to reduce production, which in turn leads to reduced production by semiconductor equipment suppliers, and semiconductor investors naturally have to lose weight. In just a few months, the global chip shortage will turn into a chip glut, which can partially slow the high inflation in the United States, but also cause damage to the semiconductor industry, and the industrial chain may have to be restructured. Therefore, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce pointedly pointed out that the U.S. approach seriously undermined market rules and the international economic and trade order, seriously threatened the stability of the global industrial chain and supply chain, and also harmed the legitimate business interests of U.S. export companies.
Straight news: The US has expanded its export restrictions on chips to China in order to reduce the US and the West's dependence on Chinese products. This often brings to mind the reduction of Europe's dependence on Russia for energy, and even war. Are the two related?
special commentator Chen Bing: You have raised a very important question, which is often ignored. In fact, the United States is now fighting two "wars", one in Europe, a military conflict between Russia and Ukraine supported by the United States; the other in Asia, a high-tech war provoked by the United States against China, a continuation of trade frictions. In the European battlefield, the United States supported Ukraine to start a war with Russia, and the amount of military aid to Ukraine exceeded that of European countries combined. On the surface, it seems to attack and weaken Russia, but it actually cuts off the delivery of cheap Russian oil to Europe. American oil and natural gas occupied the European market and sold it to European countries at a price 10 times higher than that of Russian energy. The intensified energy crisis in Europe has directly affected the cost of European companies. Some are closed, some have reduced production capacity, and some are thinking about switching to other places to build factories. Where to go? One is to the United States, the other is to China, and the third is to other places. In this way, the advanced manufacturing industry in Europe has been "" by the United States.
Now the United States has increased its restrictions on China's chip exports, on the one hand to curb China's advantages in new energy vehicles, aerospace, smartphones, supercomputers and other fields, and on the other hand to prevent advanced European manufacturing companies from settling in China, because Advanced manufacturing is inseparable from chips. In the Asian "battlefield", the United States will increase the restrictions on chip exports to China, which will force the chip manufacturing industry in Asia to find another way out. ”, Samsung and TSMC have built factories in the United States.
In addition to restricting chip exports to China, the United States is also trying to provoke a crisis in the Taiwan Strait and turn Taiwan into the largest arsenal. Taiwan has become an arsenal, and of course it is not safe. Does TSMC have to relocate further outwards? The United States is also condoning the crisis on the Korean peninsula, and the crisis on the peninsula has deepened. Should the chip companies in South Korea and Japan also consider moving? In this way, the United States has mastered the control of the semiconductor industry. The European war gave the United States the control of oil in the industrial age, and the Asian "war" gave the United States the control of the "oil" in the information age, and the hegemony of the United States was unbreakable. There is a metaphor to say that chips are the oil of the information economy era, which is quite vivid.
The question is again, can America's ambitions be realized? uncertain. European countries are already complaining about energy, and they may gradually understand that the US supports Ukraine to fight the war, so it is to "gather the wool of Europe"; Asian countries will also understand that the US technical restrictions on China are to "gather the wool of Asia". South Korean companies have already negotiated with the United States, unwilling to lose China's big market. Therefore, only when everyone understands the selfishness of the United States can we effectively resist American hegemony. Now it is time to sound the alarm, and let all parties involved in the semiconductor industry wake up early, and don't be like European countries, and they are "sucked" by the United States.
Author丨Chen Bing, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan"
Editor丨Liu Ying, Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News Editor-in-chief
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