institution is optimistic about the elastic recovery of performance after the epidemic has stabilized, and there are only 4 stocks that are expected to continue to grow in performance.
The domestic tourism industry is on the road to recovery
Since 2020, due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the rapidly developing tourism industry has experienced a lot of impact, and the number of tourists and tourism revenue have declined sharply. In 2021, the tourism industry will begin to stabilize and recover, but it has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels.
According to the 2021 Cultural and Tourism Development Statistical Bulletin released by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the total number of domestic tourists in 2021 will be 3.246 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, and will recover to 54% in 2019. . Domestic tourism revenue (total tourism consumption) was 2.92 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31%, and recovered to 51% in 2019 . Total tourism revenue accounts for 2.55% of GDP in 2021, which was close to 6% before the epidemic.
This year, under the repeated epidemics, although the tourism industry is not optimistic, the elastic demand such as tourism consumption and leisure vacation has been further released. Data from a special survey on travel willingness by the China Tourism Academy shows that in the first quarter of 2022, residents' willingness to travel was 85.32%, a year-on-year increase of 3.15%. This means that the fundamentals of tourism demand are still there and have steadily recovered to pre-pandemic levels. The China Tourism Academy predicts that in 2022, the number of domestic tourists will be 3.98 billion, and the domestic tourism revenue will be 3.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 19% and 27% year-on-year respectively, and it is expected to recover to nearly 70% of the level in the same period in 2019.
The structural recovery of the global tourism industry
will present these changes
From a global perspective, The World Tourism Cities Federation and the Tourism Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences jointly released the "World Tourism Economic Trends Report (2022)" shows ( In 2021, the total number of global tourist arrivals will reach 6.6 billion, and the total global tourism revenue will reach US$3.3 trillion, recovering to 53.7% and 55.9% of the 2019 figures, respectively. Gross global tourism receipts as a share of GDP recovered to 3.8%, down 3.1% from 2019. Under normal circumstances, due to the strong comprehensiveness and sensitivity of the tourism industry, changes in the external environment such as economy, politics, natural disasters, etc. often have a direct impact on the tourism industry, and the total tourism income of usually shows a greater impact. volatility. For example, affected by the global financial crisis , the total global tourism revenue in 2009 fell by 8.3% year-on-year, while the global GDP fell by 5.1% year-on-year; in 2020, the new crown pneumonia epidemic swept the world, and the global tourism revenue fell by 48% year-on-year, but the global GDP fell just 3.4%.
Data source: Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
"Report" predicts that the structural recovery of the global tourism industry in 2022 will show four trend changes:
First, the recovery will change. The pattern of 's tourism economic growth driven by emerging economies and the Asia-Pacific sector has been broken, and the tourism industry is more dependent on cities.
The second is the recovery fault. The gap between developed countries and underdeveloped countries is deepening, the difference between leading enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises is increasing, and there is a stratification between light-asset enterprises and -heavy-asset enterprises.
The third is the improvement of industry concentration . The tourism economy is concentrated in countries with a high level of public medical care, and the tourism market is concentrated in the domestic and surrounding areas.
Four is that recovery is accompanied by technological, cognitive and sustainable development changes. The unprecedented integration of technology means has accelerated the development trend of tourism digitalization. A new batch of IP is being produced around the world, and the market is recognizing destinations and attractions.
5A-level scenic spot inventory
Jiangsu and Zhejiang have developed tourism industry
The Mid-Autumn Festival has arrived, and many provinces have repeatedly advocated local festivals due to the epidemic, and travel presents the characteristics of surrounding tours and short-distance tours. In the upcoming National Day holiday, the long-standing demand for inter-provincial travel and long-distance travel is expected to be fully released.
The Ministry of Culture and Tourism officially identified 12 scenic spots as national 5A-level tourist attractions in July this year. Up to now, there are 318 5A scenic spots nationwide. Jiangsu Province and Zhejiang Province are the only two provinces in China with 20 or more 5A scenic spots.
Judging from the distribution of 5A scenic spots in the province, 25 5A scenic spots in Jiangsu are distributed in 13 prefecture-level cities, but the five cities in southern Jiangsu account for 17, more than two-thirds of the province. In Zhejiang Province, there are 3 each in Hangzhou, Jiaxing and Taizhou , Ningbo , Wenzhou and Quzhou each, and there are 1 in many other cities. Overall, the distribution of 5A scenic spots in Zhejiang is balanced. higher degree. The data of
five-star hotels is an important reference for the soft power of a region's service level, spending power and competitiveness. Judging from the data since 2000, the number of star-rated hotels in Zhejiang Province has remained higher than that in Jiangsu Province.
According to the comparable data released by the National Tourism Administration and the Statistics Bureau before the epidemic, the tourism industry in Zhejiang Province has developed rapidly in recent years, and the number of scenic spots has increased from 257 in 2010 (lower than 366 in Jiangsu Province) to 827 in 2019 (higher than 615 in Jiangsu Province). According to the ratio of the number of scenic spots and the number of scenic spots, the average number of scenic spots in Jiangsu Province is higher than that in Zhejiang Province. In 2019, the average number of scenic spots in Jiangsu Province and Zhejiang Province was 938,300 and 642,000 respectively.
Agency is optimistic about the resilience of performance after the epidemic has stabilized
In the first half of this year, due to the outbreak of the epidemic in many popular tourist destinations, the mobility of inter-provincial tourists has decreased, and the tourism market has been "worse", and the overall performance has been impacted.
Securities Times ·Databao statistics, 48 travel concept stocks in A shares , only 9 shares in the first half of the year achieved profit, and only 3 saw an increase in performance compared with last year. Some listed tourism companies have even lost more than 2020. first half.
In the second quarter of this year, affected by the spillover of the epidemic in Shanghai and surrounding areas, the number of tourists received by Jiuhua Mountain Scenic Area declined, and the operating performance of Jiuhua Tourism was severely impacted. In the first half of the year, the company's operating income was 119 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51.88%; The loss of net profit attributable to the parent was 32.923 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 162.32%.
Tianmu Lake and Huangshan Tourism , which are relatively close to the source of Shanghai tourists, were also affected. In the first half of the year, Huangshan Scenic Area received only 333,600 tourists, a year-on-year decrease of 65.99%. Tianmu Lake lost more than 50 million yuan in the first half of the year, and its performance turned from profit to loss.
Among other tourism stocks, Lijiang Co., Ltd. The number of tourists in the first half of the year dropped significantly. The three ropeways received a total of 514,500 tourists, a year-on-year decrease of 61.7%. It decreased by 631.24% last year.
In the third quarter, with the summer vacation, Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day and other holidays coming one after another, the market's expectations for the performance and valuation of the travel sector have increased. Recently, a number of travel stocks including China Southern Airlines , Xinhua United , Songcheng Performing Arts and other travel stocks have recorded continuous gains. China Airlines , Changbai Mountain, China Travel United have received a continuous net inflow of main funds for 3 consecutive trading days.
Orient Securities believes that with the adjustment of epidemic prevention and isolation policies in many places to superimpose the summer peak season, the residents' travel demand suppressed by the epidemic in the first half of the year is expected to be released in the third quarter. It is recommended to pay attention to the allocation opportunities brought by the short-term correction of the sector. Among the travel concept stocks rated by more than 5 institutions,
has unanimously predicted that 4 stocks are expected to show continuous growth in performance this year and next, namely CYTS , Junting Hotel , China Film , and Baiyun Airport .
statement: All the information content of Databao does not constitute investment advice. The stock market is risky, and investment should be cautious. The
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