Zhang Junwei
On August 24th, the executive meeting of the State Council decided to implement 19 consecutive policies on the basis of promoting the implementation of 33 economic stabilization policies in 6 areas in the early stage, so as to form a combined effect, promote the economy to stabilize and improve, and maintain operation within a reasonable range . On August 31, the executive meeting of the State Council deployed eight policy measures to accelerate the expansion of effective demand and stabilize the economy, mainly including: on the basis of making good use of the newly added policy development financial instruments of more than 300 billion yuan, according to the actual situation It is necessary to expand the scale, meet the capital needs for mature projects that meet the conditions, and include the newly added projects in the first half of the year into the scope of support; expand the areas supported by policy development financial instruments, include the renovation of old communities, provincial highways, etc. May attract private investment; introduce policies to support the renovation of manufacturing enterprises, vocational colleges and other equipment as soon as possible; guide commercial banks to expand medium and long-term loans to provide sufficient financing for key project construction and equipment renovation; support rigid and improved housing needs , to promote large-scale consumption of automobiles and other products; and then dispatch supervision and service working groups to several provinces to promote the implementation of policies, etc. The above-mentioned meeting conveyed a clear policy signal: the policy of stabilizing growth continues to strengthen. The "triple pressure" judgment made by
last year at the Central Economic Work Conference accurately outlines the intricate situation facing my country's current economic operation. The three pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock, and weakening expectations are superimposed. Especially in the second quarter, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to a sharp rise in the prices of energy and raw materials, and the evolution of the world's political and economic structure has accelerated; The number of suspended projects increased and the resumption of work and production progressed slowly. Under the impact of multiple factors, the existing recovery momentum of my country's economic operation has been affected, and many indicators have declined. With the weakening of economic growth momentum, the contradiction of insufficient aggregate demand has surpassed the structural contradiction to become the main contradiction of my country's economic operation. Only by promoting the steady growth of investment and consumption can corporate products have a market and market players can be maintained; only by promoting the steady growth of investment and consumption, can there be more employment opportunities and jobs can be stabilized; only by promoting investment and consumption Only with stable growth can market players see hope and effectively boost market expectations. Therefore, expanding investment and consumption and stabilizing the rapid rise of the economic market are the primary tasks of macroeconomic management.
In the face of "super-expected" shocks from many aspects, the Party Central Committee and the State Council accurately recognized changes and actively sought changes. Since the second quarter, a series of measures to stabilize the economic market have been launched on the basis of accelerating the implementation of "combined tax cuts and fee reductions" and other measures to stabilize growth.
On April 29, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China clearly pointed out when analyzing the economic situation: "my country's economic development environment is becoming more complex, severe and uncertain, and stabilizing growth, employment, and prices are facing new challenges." The meeting proposed , to intensify the adjustment of macro policies, solidly stabilize the economy, strive to achieve the expected goals of economic and social development throughout the year, and keep the economy operating within a reasonable range.
On May 23, the executive meeting of the State Council decided to implement 33 measures in 6 areas in the fields of finance, finance, industry, consumption and investment, energy security, and basic people's livelihood, so as to stabilize the economic fundamentals, promote the return of the economy to the normal track, and ensure that the operation is reasonable. interval. On May 25, the State Council convened a national teleconference on stabilizing the economy, clearly requiring local governments at all levels to "snatch the time window and work hard to bring the economy back to normal." On this basis, on June 29, the executive meeting of the State Council decided to raise 300 billion yuan to use policy development financial tools to supplement the capital of major projects or bridge the capital of special debt projects to promote the implementation of major investment projects in various places. On July 13, the executive meeting of the State Council launched a number of policies to stabilize and expand employment to ensure the overall stability of employment; it was decided to launch a new round of home appliances trade-in activities and home appliances to the countryside activities to stimulate the consumption potential of green smart home appliances. On August 18, the executive meeting of the State Council decided to improve the formation and transmission mechanism of market-oriented interest rates, and promote the reduction of the comprehensive financing cost of enterprises and the cost of personal consumption credit; it was decided to continue the implementation of policies such as the exemption of car purchase tax for new energy vehicles to promote the use of new energy vehicles. represented by bulk consumption.
On July 28, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee analyzed and studied the economic situation and deployed economic work in the second half of the year. The meeting emphasized that "macropolicies should be active in expanding demand", and clearly demanded that "fiscal and monetary policies should effectively make up for insufficient social demand." On this basis, August 24The executive meeting of the State Council held on August 31 launched 19 successive measures to stabilize growth, and the executive meeting of the State Council held on August 31 successively introduced 8 measures to stabilize growth to speed up the implementation of the above-mentioned policies to stabilize growth.
Since the current difficult economic situation is the result of the intertwining of multiple pressures such as demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations, the "prescription" for stabilizing economic operation is naturally not a single "Keynesian" demand management, but a dialectical treatment. Compound prescription. As pointed out in the 10th national teleconference on deepening the reform of "delegating power, delegating power, delegating power, serving government" on August 29: "On the one hand, we use a moderate scale of fiscal and monetary policies to intensify our macro-control efforts, and on the other hand, we continue to deepen" The reform of delegating power, delegating power, improving regulation, and improving services enhances the endogenous driving force for development. The two complement each other and are important measures to deal with the impact and promote the sustainable development of the economy." It is 'watering and fertilizing', the combination of the two produces a multiplier effect, the economy withstands downward pressure, operates within a reasonable range, and does not engage in flooding, keeping prices stable." In fact, in December last year, in order to cope with the "triple pressure" , the Central Economic Work Conference proposed a policy framework including "seven pillars" to expand the "five pillars" policy framework of supply-side structural reform, and clearly stated that macro policies should be stable and effective, and micro policies should continue to stimulate market players. Vitality, structural policies should focus on smoothing the national economic cycle, science and technology policies should be solidly implemented, reform and opening-up policies should activate development momentum, regional policies should enhance the balance and coordination of development, and social policies should stick to the bottom line of people's livelihood. Specifically, in terms of stabilizing growth, we have not only seen the use of fiscal and financial tools such as tax cuts and fee reductions, full use of local debt policy space, expanded use of policy-based financial tools, interest rate cuts and reserve ratio cuts, and enhanced exchange rate flexibility. Structural measures such as green and smart consumption, stabilizing the operation of the real estate market, and accelerating the development of "specialized, specialized, and new" enterprises have seen bottom-line measures such as increasing re-employment training, stabilizing jobs and ensuring employment, and strengthening social security.
We can clearly see that with the evolution of the situation becoming more and more clear, the understanding of all aspects is becoming more and more unified, the pace of policy adjustment is getting faster and faster, and the new policy framework system is becoming more and more abundant and perfect.
(The author is a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council)
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