Text | Lou Barty
The 70th anniversary of the National Day, the film market ushered in a National Day file with the most distinctive banner and the most unified blockbuster theme in history. The three main themes of "Me and My Country", "The Climber" and "The Captain of China" were opened at the same time. Before the war, the beacon was already burning, and all the heat and momentum turned into a real problem: the 2019 National Day file How many billion will the box office have?
Facing this question, some people can't wait to give the answer to the preselection. The box office forecasts range from 5 billion to 7 billion. The figures may not be useful for reference, but they undoubtedly reveal the public's box office expectations for this year's National Day stalls. There is almost a desire in this expectation.
As of yesterday (September 22), the cumulative box office in September reached 2.094 billion, while the cumulative box office in September last year was 3.102 billion. In other words, if you want to be the same as the same period last year in September this year, then until the National Day file officially starts, The daily box office average box office needs at least more than 100 million, and today's market as of writing time (20:24), the box office is only 33.891 million. The monthly box office of
is regressing, and the gradual accumulation will increase the annual box office gap. As of September 22, the box office for the whole year of 2019 was 46.753 billion, while the box office for the same period of 2018 exceeded 48 billion, and the box office gap exceeded 1.3 billion. These gaps need to be filled in a long time.
Last year’s National Day stalls were cold, and the platform ticket replenishment disappeared. Ten films were released during the time period. The Hong Kong movie "Wushuang" became a dark horse, but the happy twist comedy "Aunt of Li Cha" and Zhang Yimou’s costume art film "Shadow" were all Waterloo. The total box office and the number of movie viewers both declined, and the annual box office target that was chanted all the way was blown by the cold winter wind of the industry.
This year's National Day file, there are 12 films in the current schedule, but there are obvious boundaries. Three large-scale gift films dominate the market. Two animated films, "Snowman Romance" and "Ugly Doll", and others with strokes The nature of small-volume movies is basically summarized into the scope of "cannon fodder".
During the week from today to the National Day holiday, no blockbuster movies were released in the movie market. Movies such as "Whistleblower" and "Hypnosis · Verdict" left the Mid-Autumn Festival and did not choose to settle in the National Day holiday. Obviously, the firepower of the industry and even the box office market is quite concentrated: three gift films, all in one go, it is best to have a few more N billion+ to rescue the market.
film and television giants get together to produce, the gift film "collecting the best of the industry"?
In reality, in addition to representing the most stable structure in the field of mathematics, triangular relations may mean competition in other fields. In the movie market, the three films "My Country and My Country", "The Climber", and "The Captain of China" have similar main themes and themes, the content of the same level, and the casts are partially overlapped. Then the difference of the film It is the key to determining who can become the spire of the pyramid.
From the perspective of the company behind the film, the three film production lineups all have film and television giants sitting in front of them. The giants don't put their eggs in the same basket, don't mind fighting each other with their left and right hands, just ask for rain and dew. According to incomplete statistics, excluding some overlapping film companies, there are more than 92 production, distribution, and marketing companies involved behind the three gift films.
(data from Maoyan)
such as Ali Pictures participated in the production of three gift films, of which "Captain China" and "Me and My Motherland" are still the main producers. At the Shanghai Film Festival this year, Ali Pictures announced that it will work with Bona Pictures to launch the "Chinese Pride Trilogy" ("Heroes of Fire", "Decisive Moment" and "Chinese Captain"). The first two of the
trilogy have been released. The summer archive of "Heroes of Fire" was released with a box office of 1.687 billion. It was one of the few works with a box office of over 1 billion outside of the Spring Festival this year. However, the film was once criticized by the public for being overly sensational. Bona Pictures' "Operation Red Sea" and "Operation Mekong" and other outstanding themes of the film, the film is not satisfactory. "Decisive Moment" was released for four days, with a box office of 44.48 million. The subject matter is red and professional, and there has not yet been a flashpoint in the downward trend of the market. As the last of the trilogy, "Captain of China" is also the most anticipated one.
And it is not difficult to see that Ali Pictures, as an Internet film company, has a mode of thinking that cooperates with traditional film giants to enlarge the plate, which is far less risky than being a "lone hero." This thinking has always been implemented. In 2018, Ali Pictures’ "Jincheng Joint Production Plan" decided to act as the main investor, main control, and main announcement party.Co-produce films with first-class production companies, "co-production" is the key word of Ali Pictures, and cooperation is the key word of the film market.
"My Motherland and Me" is the industry's "cooperative masters", in addition to Bona Pictures and Ali Pictures, traditional giants such as Light Media, Huayi Brothers, Wanda Film and Television, Internet companies Tencent Pictures, Ning Hao New regulatory companies such as Bad Monkey and Xu Zheng's Zhenledao are all in the ranks of joint production.
This kind of industry gathering is not only because of the size of the movie itself, but also because of the 7 directors behind "My Motherland and Me" who tell seven different stories. There are 55 main actors and actresses. The movie is 155 minutes, almost mobilized. For most of the showbiz, it is not surprising that there are many companies behind it. The remaining "Climber" of
was aimed at Wu Jing and Dengfeng International, and it was hoped by the box office market that it would be the next "wolf of war". The co-producer party Zhonghua Yi Brothers, Wanda Pictures, Beijing Culture and other film companies have appeared inertially. The giants have realized that the movie market only survives with explosives. It is an ideal state to be able to master the explosives, but if not, first of all What needs to be done is to bet a few more quasi-explosive funds. Especially Huayi Brothers this year's major project "Yaibai" was withdrawn, and the box office of "Little Wish" was not as good as expected. After the reorganization of Wanda Film and Television, the market was burdened with gambling pressure and the market was severe. The giants pursued security. The
production company is a melee, so the differentiation falls on the story content and star lineup.
All-star lineup, where is the difference of the gift film?
Judging from the movie content that has been exposed, although the three gift films are the main themes, the story content is completely different.
"My Motherland and Me" is a typical unit narrative. The whole movie is composed of seven stories, each of which represents a key node in the country in 70 years, such as "Return" is the return of Hong Kong, "Day Meteor" It was based on the successful landing of the return capsule of China's Shenzhou 11 spacecraft. The whole movie tells the country and the era with specific stories.
7 directors have a luxurious lineup, ranging from the most experienced fifth-generation director Chen Kaige to the budding young director Wen Muye. The 55 actors include not only actor/post-level characters Huang Bo, Ge You, Hui Yinghong, etc., but also powerful actors such as Wu Jing, Zhang Yi, Wang Qianyuan, Ren Dahua, Hu Jun, etc., and young actors Zhou Dongyu, Zhu Yilong, Liu Haoran, Ou Hao, etc., covering a very wide range. Wide.
"Climber" focuses on the Chinese mountaineering team's successful climb to the top of Mount Everest from the north slope, completing the story of mankind's first climb to the top of Mount Everest from the north slope. It is a rare domestic extreme movie with Mount Everest as the background, starring Wu Jing, Zhang Ziyi, Jackie Chan, Zhang Yi, Jing Boran, Hu Ge, Wang Jingchun, He Lin, etc.
"Captain of China" is based on the Sichuan Airlines flight 3U8633 successfully handled the real incident on May 14, 2018, telling the story of how the crew members and 119 passengers survived the crisis. Starring Zhang Hanyu, Ou Hao, Du Jiang, Yuan Quan, Zhang Tianai, Li Qin, Li Xian, etc.
excludes the difference in director’s technique. Only in terms of the existing story outline and star lineup, the three films have achieved differentiation in content, and the star lineup has achieved the ultimate gift of blockbuster films. The three film actors range from powerful actors to Traffic fresh meat, full control. The three gift films of
have already seen a difference in popularity. On Cat's Eye and Lighthouse, "Climber" ranked first with 460,000/1.01 million people wanting to see it. In the vote for the most wanted movie in the National Day file initiated by the CCTV News Official Weibo, 122,000 people participated in the vote. Among them, "My Motherland and Me" accounted for 49.1%, leading the way.
Part of the media also made box office forecasts for the three movies. Different from wanting to see the results of index voting, the media forecasts gave new possibilities. According to the lighthouse data, the total box office forecast for "The Climber" by various media is about 1.7 billion on average, about 1.5 billion for "My Motherland and Me", and 1.9 billion for "Captain China", with an average cumulative total of 5.1 billion. Up to now, the pre-sale box office on September 30 reached 124 million, and the total pre-sale of the three gift films exceeded 168 million.
It is worth noting that from here, we can feel to a certain extent that the industry’s estimate of the National Day files is more enthusiastic than expected. National Day stalls are one of the big stalls, and the ticket sales capacity is second only to the summer stalls and the Spring Festival stalls. The National Day stalls have regressed twice in the past five years, but the box office explosion effect during the stalls is still obvious.
(data from Maoyan)
looks at an average of 5 years, the ceiling of the box office is2.5 billion, the first film can get at least about 50% of the overall box office, and the remaining 50% depends on the long tail effect of the film for accumulation. According to this logic, according to the existing forecasted box office, the total predicted votes of the three gift films are 5.1 billion, which means that the cumulative box office of the three gift films during the period should be around 2.55 billion. In other words, The total box office of the National Day stalls this year needs to break the ceiling over the years. The speculation of
is not entirely accurate, but a reference is given. Many organizations have already given good news that the box office of the National Day box office is expected to rise this year. The three gift films are the main force of the National Day box and the pressure is not small. The anticipation atmosphere of the National Day stall seems to have had a good response in the stock market. Today, the film and television stocks in the A-share market rose. As of the close, the daily limit of Fortune Blue Ocean and Wentou Holdings, Shanghai Film rose more than 5%, Huayi Brothers, Guangguang Media , Beijing Culture, Huace Film and Television and other stocks have followed the rise. From capital, industry to the public, everyone is eagerly looking forward to it, hoping that this National Day file can also create a new high as expected.
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