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The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30 and decided to hold the 19th Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee in October this year to study the formulation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and 2035 vision Suggest. The meeting also set the tone for economic work in the second half of the year, and proposed that China's economy should shift to the direction of internal circulation.
Research the next five-year plan is the regular agenda of the Fifth Plenary Session. The "14th Five-Year Plan" refers to China's national economic plan from 2021 to 2025. Different from the previous Fifth Plenary Session, this time it also focused on the mid-term plan and studied the recommendations on formulating the "2035 long-term goal". From this we can see the intention of the Chinese Communist Party's ruling authorities to make the "14th Five-Year Plan" better Converge on the mid-term goal of 2035.
It is understood that the CCP will complete its first centenary goal by the end of this year, that is, before the 100th anniversary of the founding of the party in 2021, to build a well-off society in an all-round way, and start moving towards the second centenary goal next year. The latter is divided into two stages. The first stage is from 2020 to 2035, basically realizing socialist modernization; the second stage is from 2035 to 2050, building a powerful modern socialist country.
Tang Renwu, Dean of the Government Management Research Institute of Beijing Normal University, analyzed during an interview that the "2035 Vision" will refine the "basic realization of socialist modernization" proposed in the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and it is likely to develop more specific measurement indicators. The Politburo meeting also affirmed the performance of China's economy in the first half of the year, and at the same time proposed to accelerate the formation of a "new development pattern with domestic and international cycles as the mainstay and mutual promotion of domestic and international cycles." The
meeting and release will pay more attention to the effect of macro-policy implementation. It is necessary to improve the "cross-cycle" design and adjustment of macro-control to achieve a long-term balance of stable growth and risk prevention.
For both the Chinese economy and the global economy, 2020 is too unusual. A century-old new crown epidemic is still spreading around the world. At the same time, the relationship between the two powers of the United States and China that have fallen into the "Thucydides trap" has rapidly deteriorated; the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced the estimated economic growth rate of each country in 2020. There have been historical setbacks.
How the Chinese Communist Party’s ruling authorities observe the situation, adjust the layout, set goals, and develop strategies are naturally worthy of high attention.
First of all, the CCP has moved towards its second centenary goal in accordance with its original plan. The goal is to stabilize the expectations of all parties, and it also signals that China does not want or believe that a major change has taken place or will occur in the international landscape.
Secondly, for the first time, he put forward the new development concept and strategy of "internal circulation as the main body, domestic and international dual circulation mutual promotion". This is because under the double impact of the new crown epidemic raging around the world and the rapid increase in the conflict between the United States and China, let alone the global Transformation is dying. Introspection and province, between states and states in a country, and between countries in the world, both the supply chain and the demand chain have been severely broken.
If these trends continue for a long time, individual companies and the economies of various countries will face suffocating pressure. In such a situation, China has noticed an advantage that almost no other country has, that is, a huge "self-circulation force", which allows China to maintain a certain degree even in the face of external globalization even if it is fragmented. Effective operation.
China's self-circulation force is mainly based on three advantages. The first condition is economic scale, which refers to the population and gross domestic product (GDP). The larger the two, the larger the domestic demand market, the lower the degree of dependence on external demand; China’s population is the world’s largest population and the world’s largest GDP. Second, there is a middle class that has grown rapidly and is equivalent to the total population of the United States. The second condition is the industrial system, which mainly refers to the complete range of industries. This is also a concept of low external dependence and no demand for people. The third condition is strategic resources. In addition to insufficient oil self-sufficiency, China has a high self-sufficiency rate in food and minerals.
is the only one with all the above conditions as in China. Therefore, China proposes to "accelerate the formation of a large domestic cycle,The new development pattern of mutual promotion of domestic and international double cycles", this development strategy is believed to become the main theme of the "14th Five-Year Plan".
Third, we must also see that the strategic thinking of China's economic development is becoming more and more medium and long-term. For a long time, macroeconomic policies, especially monetary policies, often took effect for a while but suffered serious sequelae in the medium and long term.
Therefore, it is now necessary to emphasize "improving the design and adjustment of the "cross-cycle" macro-control to achieve a long-term balance between stable growth and risk prevention."
If China's economy can first stabilize under the highly uncertain global economic outlook, it will be good for China, Asia and the world. It is hoped that China's internal cycle will eventually lead to a global cycle.
Source: Shi Ping Da Finance and Economics
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