Recently, South Korea has encountered a rare rainstorm. From the early morning of August 6 to 10 am of the same day, the rainfall in Seoul was 117 mm, and the maximum rainfall of this month was 403.5 mm (Dobong District, Seoul). The inaccurate weather forecast has put a huge burden on the lives of Korean people.
Weather forecast is inaccurate. Official: The weather is abnormal and difficult to judge
According to reports, the Korea Meteorological Agency issued a rainstorm weather forecast early in the morning on the 5th. According to the forecast, there will be violent winds and thunderstorms in Seoul, Gyeonggi-do and Gangwon-do Yeongseo area, and the average hourly rainfall will reach 50-100 mm. In fact, by 7 pm on the 5th, the rainfall in Goseong, Cheorwon, Gangwon Province and other places reached 200 mm, and the rainfall in the metropolitan area including Seoul and Gyeonggi Province was only 20-30 mm.
This has once again questioned the forecasting capabilities of the Korea Meteorological Agency. The Korea Meteorological Agency was also ridiculed by some netizens as a "false alarm agency." In response, the Korea Meteorological Agency replied: “Under abnormal weather conditions, it is difficult to make accurate judgments.”
The radar image of the Korea Meteorological Agency predicting the movement of rain clouds
It is also understood that the Korea Meteorological Agency publishes information on its official website. It predicts the movement of rain clouds every 10 minutes and provides "ultra-short-term rainfall forecast". However, even with such a timely forecast, some netizens pointed out that there were errors. Ban Ki-song, head of Kweather, a private weather information company at
, said: “It is very difficult to make ultra-short-term forecasts with South Korea’s current forecasting capabilities. Even if the approaching process of rain clouds is observed through artificial satellites, in fact, when it arrives On land, it will be affected by many factors. This leads to the inaccuracy of weather forecasts." The Korean-style forecast model
, which spent 78 billion yuan on
, is reported to have increased the accuracy of forecasts by the Korea Meteorological Agency. The Korean Integrated Model (KIM) was officially introduced in October. This project started in 2011, and the South Korean government has invested a total of 78 billion won (approximately RMB 457.51 million) in 2019.
This is a kind of weather forecasting plan, the Korea Meteorological Agency uses supercomputer to calculate. Prior to this, South Korea had been using the British model (UM). However, because the UK and South Korea are very different in topography and meteorological characteristics, in order to obtain more accurate results, the Korea Meteorological Agency developed this weather forecast model through its own technology.
In November 2014, the Korean Meteorological Agency spent 56.9 billion won to introduce a supercomputer. According to the "Joongang Ilbo"
, after the introduction of KIM, the accuracy of rainfall forecasts became very low. When KIM was first introduced in April this year, the Korea Meteorological Agency decided to use both UM and KIM due to concerns that KIM was not stable yet. From April to July 13 this year, the accuracy of rainfall forecasts was only 67%. It is even down 1 percentage point from 68% in the same period last year.
Some people questioned that the accuracy of rainfall forecasts decreased after the introduction of KIM. In response, a person from the Korea Meteorological Agency responded: “The rainfall prediction model reflects a variety of situations and is not easy to calculate right away. In addition, KIM is now in the early stages of introduction. It will accumulate a lot of data. In this way, we can calculate a forecast that is more in line with the actual situation in South Korea."
After a lapse of 9 years, Seoul will have another heavy rain , which may cause severe waterlogging
. According to South Korea’s "Joongang Ilbo", Seoul’s time has been 9 years. There was another heavy rainstorm. From the early morning of August 6 to 10 am of the same day, the rainfall in Seoul was 117 mm, and the maximum rainfall of this month was 403.5 mm (Dobong District, Seoul). The flood discharge of the Batang Dam and the Zhaoyang River Dam caused the water level of the Han River to rise, restricting the passage of many main roads and causing serious congestion on the way to work. A special flood warning has been issued for the tributaries of the Han River.
On August 6, the rise of the water level of the Han River caused restrictions on the passage of many main roadsAccording to the picture, the "Joongang Daily"
Seoul City last issued a "special flood warning" 9 years ago. At the end of July 2011, the city of Seoul dropped 530mm heavy rains for three consecutive days, which accounted for almost half of the annual rainfall in Seoul. It became the largest rainfall in 104 years since Seoul began to record meteorological observations in 1907. At that time, torrential rains caused landslides in Niumian Mountain, and mudslides inundated some single-family houses and apartments, killing 18 people.
is expected to begin raining again across the country from the afternoon of August 7. The rainfall in Seoul, Gyeonggi-do and Gangwon is about 30-80 mm, and most areas will see 120 mm of rainfall.
Red Star News Wang Yalin Luo Tian
Editor Zhang Xun
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