During the campaign, Trump made ending the conflict between Russia and Ukraine within a short period of time one of his core propositions. After his victory, he has yet to come up with a formal plan to achieve peace. However, the negotiation framework he advocated has been partia

During the campaign, Trump made ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict within a short time one of his core propositions. After his victory, he has yet to come up with a formal plan to achieve peace. However, the negotiation framework he advocated has been partially disclosed by the US media, These include Ukraine not being allowed to seek to join NATO within 20 years, establishing a military buffer zone based on existing fronts, and the defense of the buffer zone being the responsibility of European armies rather than the United States.

The focus of the plan is to respond to the concerns of Trump supporters about stopping the war and stopping losses, seeking to withdraw the United States from the front line of the confrontation with Russia, and using the influence of the United States in Europe to drive European countries to deploy on the front line to free the United States. At the same time, the buffer zone is used as a military separation zone between the armed forces of both sides, and it also retains the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO, allowing Zelensky to have some internal explanations. However, this approach does not actually achieve a permanent armistice, but provides the United States, Europe and Russia with a theoretical armistice period of 20 years.

Trump

With Ukraine’s main assets having been taken over by American capital, Trump’s preliminary truce plan is essentially a carve-up of Ukraine. Based on the results on the current front, Russia has obtained a military buffer zone to the west. The United States has strangled the security lifeline of European countries and achieved remote control of Ukraine from behind Europe. Trump's armistice framework can be said to maximize the interests of the United States. For Russia, except for the 20-year deadline, everything else is good. But for Europe and Ukraine, they are the biggest losers. Especially Ukraine has fought for several years and made huge sacrifices. Not only can its demands for joining NATO and the EU not be met, but the country has also fallen into a state of division.

In addition, European countries have been harvested by the United States during the war. Now that Trump has launched the armistice plan, he wants to continue to harvest Europe. I have to say that Europe has really become the cow of the United States. It can squeeze a few sips of milk when there is nothing wrong. It can be said that Zelensky no longer has the value of launching a hybrid war against Russia. Its subsequent value to the United States depends on whether Zelensky can cooperate with the United States to jointly put pressure on Europe and drive European countries to surrender more resources to the United States for the sake of security. Multiple benefits.

Zelensky

On November 7, the day after Trump confirmed his victory, Zelensky had a phone call with Trump. The press release stated that the two parties agreed to continue to maintain dialogue and develop cooperation. It can be considered that the subsequent dialogue process between the two parties is a process for Zelensky to demonstrate his value and exchange for corresponding support.

Just after the call, Zelensky put pressure on European countries not to make concessions to Russia. At the European Political Community summit in Budapest, Hungary, Zelensky ruled out a quick end to the war, saying it was "unacceptable" for Europe to make concessions to the Kremlin to stop its "invasion" of Ukraine. Zelensky’s political performance has two sides. On the one hand, he sometimes almost begs for compromise with the United States, and on the other hand, he uses a tough stance to demand support from European countries. This has formed a ladder distribution of political discourse power in the Western system, Biden/Trump , Zelensky, European leaders.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

While the United States is making concessions to Russia and the United States and Russia will conduct geopolitical interest transactions, European countries are required by Zelensky not to compromise with Russia, which to a certain extent ensures the United States’ negotiating privileges. In the process of U.S.-Russia transactions, the land acquired by Russia during the war and the strategic space for external expansion are the cakes it can obtain. Harvesting Europe, taking control of Ukraine's state-owned assets, and then continuing to use security issues to blackmail European countries are the main income the United States can obtain. And as Russia withstands and counterattacks the hybrid war between the United States and the West, the future situation can be said to have evolved in the direction of the United States taking advantage of Russia's so-called security threats to harvest Europe.

The United States, Russia and Europe

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated Russia’s position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict negotiations at the plenary session of the Valdai International Debate Club on November 7. Putin said that the negotiations need to be based on the Istanbul Agreement in the early stages of the war, with the current actual front as the core, rather than based on Ukraine's "wishes" that change at any time. From a long-term perspective, peace is needed between Russia and Ukraine, and Russia also aims to achieve peace, but this peace cannot be a delaying measure for half an hour or half a year.

It can be seen that Russia’s bottom line is that the battle line is the armistice line and is also the territory of both sides. It seeks to fill in the current actual front content based on the consensus reached in the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in the early stages of the war and achieve a result that can end the war in the long term. Whether it is Trump's signs of harvesting Europe or Putin's negotiation conditions, neither can be completed in a short time. Negotiations, wars and transactions at the same time will be the tone of the next Russia-Ukraine war.