This year's Chinese film market is a bit like "ice and fire". First, during the Spring Festival, one "Hot" and "Flying Life 2", two blockbusters with a box office of more than 3 billion, the market is booming, and comedy movies once again support most of the Chinese movies.

This year's Chinese film market is a bit like "ice and fire".

First came the Spring Festival, one "Hot" and "Flying Life 2", two blockbusters with a box office of more than 3 billion, the market is hot, and comedy movies once again support most of the Chinese movies.

Then came the summer season, which encountered "extreme cold".

There are many A-list stars, including special effects blockbusters, Hong Kong films, and Hollywood movies. It's a pity that from Wu Ershan, Chen Sicheng to Xu Zheng, the big directors have failed at the box office, and only two dark horses, "Silence" and "Death Ship", were produced. At the box office, "Catch a Baby" dominates the box office, ranking third in the box office for the whole year.

However, compared with last year’s "The Strongest Summer Movie in History" with "The Octagon", "All or Nothing", "The Vanishing Her" and "Fengshen Part 1", it has retreated significantly.

What is even more worrying is that there are various signs that the prospects for this Mid-Autumn Festival are not optimistic. Looking at it, it's a little bit uncertain whether the "rescue hero" can achieve both box office and word-of-mouth success.

Fortunately, it is approaching the National Day release, and a series of sudden release news has given Chinese movies a glimmer of hope.

First, "Volunteers 2", which has been delayed for a long time, has finally been released, and then "749 Bureau", which Lu Chuan has been working on for six years, has finally been released for the National Day.

So far, this National Day film has not only top actors such as Wu Jing, Zhao Liying, Ge You, and Wang Junkai, but also ace directors such as Lu Chuan, Chen Kaige, and Ning Hao.

But the question remains the same: Who can really carry the box office? Who can lead the Chinese film market to counterattack in 2024?

Here we take everyone to take a look at the box office drama of the National Day period in advance, and let us guess together, who is the leader in the box office of the National Day period?

1, "749 Bureau": Lu Chuan has been sharpening his sword for six years, can he avoid the shame of "Nine-Story Demon Tower"?

Actors: Wang Junkai / Miao Miao / Zheng Kai / Ren Min / Xin Baiqing / Zhang Junning / Li Chen / Yang Haoyu

Predicted box office: 900 million

This is definitely Lu Chuan’s most labor-intensive movie.

In 2018, with a funding gap of up to half, Lu Chuan bit the bullet and started filming. During this period, he experienced epidemic lockdowns and capital explosions. It was not until July 2019 that the film was completed. In recent years, the film has continued to appear on the waiting list, and on March 26 this year, reshoots were started again.

Until today, the film crew finally announced that the movie "749 Bureau" will be released on October 1st.

This movie was inspired by director Lu Chuan’s experience after graduating from the military academy. It is still a science fiction action-adventure genre.

The story takes place in the near future. Due to the emergence of unknown mysterious creatures, the entire city is facing an unprecedented crisis. Young Ma Shan (played by Wang Junkai) is taken into Bureau 749 and enters layers of mazes to start an adventure.

In the trailer of just over ten seconds, the scene of the 749 battles against monsters is reminiscent of the special effects action drama in the finale of "The Nine-Story Demon Tower".

There is no need to doubt Lu Chuan’s sincerity in wanting to make "749 Bureau" well, let alone his courage.

After the sci-fi adventure "Nine-Story Demon Tower", Lu Chuan actually rewrote his homework for the year, only this time the starring role was replaced by Wang Junkai.

Wang Junkai was still a newcomer to the film industry when the filming started. Now he has started to dominate the box office with "The Hedgehog" and "Wild Child".

This is the biggest boost for the film, and the success of the sci-fi horror monster-fighting "Alien" in the summer is also a good thing. But the key to success or failure is whether Lu Chuan himself can beat himself back then.

2, "Volunteer Army 2": Wu Jing joins forces with Zhu Yilong, can Chen Kaige avenge last year

Starring: Zhu Yilong/ Zhang Zifeng/Chen Feiyu/Wu Jing/Zhang Songwen

Predicted box office: 1 billion

As the third part of China Film to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea directed by Chen Kaige Last year, the first "Volunteer Army" ranked first in reputation during the National Day holiday, with a box office of 868 million, losing to Lao Mouzi's "Sturdy as a Rock". The second part of

is making a comeback, and it’s still on National Day. The protagonist of the second part of

will be Zhu Yilong who appeared at the end of the first part.

The main battlefield of this "battle of life and death" will also be one rarely mentioned in previous movies about resisting U.S. aggression and aiding Korea: the Cheorwon battlefield.

In order to complete the task, the soldiers of the 189th Division of the 63rd Army were broken into pieces and turned themselves into a nail, firmly nailed to the position! On the 1st Battalion position, Li Xiang (Zhu Yilong), the battalion instructor, made a "one step" decision. I will never retreat again" and held on to the position.

Amidst the heavy artillery fire, Li Moyin (played by Xin Baiqing) and his family of three were also reunited on the battlefield.

It can be seen from the trailer that the big scenes in the second part are still magnificent, and the battlefield group portraits are still moving. With the addition of family elements, the quality of the second part should remain stable. The box office results of the first part of the

series should not satisfy the very ambitious director Chen Kaige.

Although the reputation is close, the film's box office is not on the same level as the "Changjin Lake" series. This may be due to the audience's aesthetic fatigue for this genre.

But this time Chen Kai’s singers include Zhu Yilong, the double actor who won Golden Rooster and Hundred Flowers,

and Wu Jing, who plays the role of Fu Chongbi, a senior general of our army.

I predict that the film will be the film with the most stable box office reputation during the National Day period, and the box office should be stronger than the first one.

3, "Road to the Fire": Zhao Liying teamed up with Xiao Yang, can the box office "bathe in the fire"

Director: 五百 Starring: Xiao Yang/Zhao Liying/ Liu Ye

predicted box office: 500 million

Xiao Yang is back to his own She is best at the crime suspense genre, and Zhao Liying once again challenged herself.

The starting point of the film is the same as the loss of a child in "Manslaughter", and the end point is the organization of revenge, but this time, the story takes place in a wilderness.

Xiao Yang plays the father again, with eyes full of determination;

Zhao Liying’s style is sometimes simple and sometimes coquettish, which is definitely He is a ruthless character; Liu Ye is like a ferocious beast; Feng Delun is even more unrecognizable.

Explosive scenes, sharp movements, and tight rhythm.

The crime film atmosphere of the film overflows the screen.

Coupled with a reliable cast, it is natural for the film to become a dark horse. The question is how big a dark horse can the producer of "White Night" be after the mediocre reputation of several consecutive films.

4. "Crisis Line": Can Andy Lau act as a lone hero in the sky to quell box office doubts?

Director: Peng Shun Starring: Andy Lau/Zhang Zifeng/Qu Chuxiao/Liu Tao

Forecast box office: 400 million

Air disaster There are already domestic films such as "Crash Landing" and "Captain of China", but in recent years, aerial disaster action films have 30 years is extremely rare.

Andy Lau plays the lone hero in the air. The security expert Gao Haojun he plays not only has to deal with the gangster (played by Qu Chuxiao) hijacking the plane at an altitude of 10,000 meters, but also protects his daughter (played by Zhang Zifeng), ex-wife (played by Liu Tao) and other passengers.

The main attraction of the film is the special effects and action, especially the desperate struggle between good and evil at high altitude.

In order to create a more realistic fighting scene in the airport, the film crew restored the three-story cabin of the passenger plane 1:1.

refers to the same type of "Taken" series. Andy Lau obviously wants to carry the film's box office.

Although Andy Lau's box office performance in mainland China has been stable in recent years, the biggest unknown in the film is director Peng Shun.

After Peng Shun bid farewell to the thriller genre, his films such as "The Big Call", "Across the Yangtze River" and "Shocking Rescue" received mediocre reviews. This is his best chance to make a comeback.

But the premise is that he must get back to the state he was in when he teamed up with his brother Peng Fa to help Aaron Kwok win the Best Actor.

5, "Safety in and Out": Xiao Yang's version of "Life Events", the strongest dark horse in the National Day season?

Director: Liu Jiangjiang Starring: Xiao Yang / Ayunga / Guli Nazha

Forecast box office: 700 million

National Day one person Leading two blockbusters proves that Xiao Yang's box office appeal is unprecedented.

But "Safety" is more important to Xiao Yang, because he is likely to get a series of best actor nominations and even win the best actor with this film.

Because the director of this film is the director of "Life Events" who helped Zhu Yilong win the best actor again, Liu Jiangjiang. Even Yang En appeared again.

Xiao Yang’s characters in the film are also very outstanding.

story is a matter of life and death.

Zheng Ligun (played by Xiao Yang), a death row prisoner who accidentally killed his wife to protect his wife, was suddenly hit by an earthquake while being transported. He and the same batch of prisoners regained their "freedom", and the escorting prison guard decided to temporarily form an earthquake rescue team.

In the last 24 hours of his life, a death row prisoner had a chance to escape, but he was faced with a child who begged him to save his life. How did he choose?

Save, others can live, but you will definitely die in 24 hours;

If you don't save, you can live if you run away.

The story is adapted from real events, and is about destiny and redemption, and it has always been touching.

Perhaps the director can stage another "Life Event"-like ending fireworks that amazed many viewers.

The key to the success or failure of the film, just like "Life Events", lies in whether word of mouth can make it out of the industry.

Another surprise in the film is that Guli Nazha plays Xiao Yang’s wife. The image of a simple pregnant woman who brings an urn to deliver the hero’s ashes is very stunning. Perhaps Xiao Yang is not the only one who has improved his acting skills with this film.

6, "The Hottest Good Guy": Ning Hao partners with Ge You, the two kings of comedy, to create greater glory

Starring: Ge You/Li Xueqin/Yang Haoyu

Forecast box office: 300 million

follows "My Homeland and Me" and "My Hometown and Me" Later, Ge You returned to the National Day movie for the third time as "Zhang Beijing".

Ning Hao appeared in the National Day episode again after "Mr. Red Carpet" in the Spring Festival episode.

Before this film, Ning Hao's "Mr. Red Carpet" was too big, and fans couldn't share the same channel with Ning Hao. The movie was neither a hit nor a success.

Ge You swallowed the box office dud of "If You Are the One 3".

For the two comedy aces, the works with the best reputation in recent years are the Zhang Beijing passages in "My Motherland and Me" and "My Hometown and Me".

This time, I am determined to win.

This time, Zhang Beijing accidentally became an Internet celebrity, and the fame and fortune that followed gave him everything. However, after some absurd ups and downs of fame and fortune, he finally found himself.

is a very Ning Hao story, very Zhang Beijing very Ge You, with the addition of Li Xueqin, Jia Bing, Yang Haoyu, Wu Lei and other actors, the film's box office base should be very stable.

The question is, are viewers who are used to watching Zhang Beijing in platter movies willing to go to the theater to watch it again just for Ning Hao + Ge You?

7. "Panda Project": Can Jackie Chan stop the box office decline?

Starring: Hu Hu / Jackie Chan / Wei Xiang " is indeed smart, but Jackie Chan, who returns to familiar action comedies, still faces huge box office challenges.

Jackie Chan + a bunch of comedy stars start a battle for the "treasure" surrounding the panda Huhu.

The movie is easily reminiscent of Jackie Chan's "Eagle Project" and "Baby Project", but neither the market nor Jackie Chan's big brother is what it used to be.

Jackie Chan's new films in the past two years have not performed well both in terms of word-of-mouth and box office. One of the key factors lies in the co-director, either his old partner Tang Jili or a new and inexperienced director.

Director Zhang Luan's previous film was the mediocre "Hello, Brother", which was not reassuring enough.

As a fan who grew up watching Jackie Chan, I always hope that Jackie Chan can make a comeback, just like those reversals in his action comedies. I wish you good luck this time.

8, "Only This Green": Word-of-mouth movies may not be hits

Director: Zhou Liya/Han Zhen

Starring: Zhang Han/Meng Qingyang/Xie Suhao

Predicted box office: 50 million

The film is adapted from the dance poem drama of the same name, and was choreographed by the original stage team , director, cast and filmmakers are jointly created.

The story is inspired by the only painting "A Thousand Miles of Rivers and Mountains" left by the mysterious boy Ximeng in the Northern Song Dynasty in his short life.

The entire movie has no dialogue, and is replaced by talking dance. If the movie can integrate the beauty of dance, the beauty of oriental painting and the beauty of classical music, it will most likely gain a good reputation.

However, judging from this year’s box office experience, art films with high reputations often fail to achieve breakthrough box office success in the market, especially in the fiercely competitive big time periods.

It is not the responsibility of ordinary viewers to prevent good movies from enjoying themselves, but it is the responsibility of the film producers to choose the appropriate schedule for good movies.

Perhaps it would be a better choice for the film to avoid the dense National Day schedule and release it in the relatively empty post-National Day schedule.

9, "New Big Head Son and Little Head Dad 6: Mini Adventure": Animated movies are indispensable in any schedule

Predicted box office: 80 million

is another must-have animated movie for children in every schedule.

Judging from the stable box office performance of this series in the past, this time it is probably around 80 million to 100 million.

is written at the end:

After the summer season, whether the box office market can counterattack in 2024 depends on the performance of the National Day season.

Perhaps what many viewers are looking forward to more is Tsui Hark's "The Legend of the Condor Heroes", and the still-appetizing "Feng Shen 2" and "Nezha 2". And of course Zhang Yimou's "The Three-Body Problem".

But what will be released in this National Day file are the above videos.

For audiences, watching movies is increasingly not a necessity for entertainment.

Many young people are willing to update their equipment for "Wukong Black" without entering the theater, while middle-aged people are busy ensuring that they do not lose their jobs before the new retirement age arrives.

Therefore, watching movies is becoming more and more like buying Mid-Autumn mooncakes, a choice that comes to mind only at special moments.

But what the movie needs is the daily box office.

The box office not only represents the return of funds, but also concerns the confidence of the industry.

If the film market remains sluggish, I am afraid more filmmakers will switch to short dramas.

And I always believe that even ordinary people still need movies, this journey of dreaming in ordinary life.

In the final analysis, to revitalize the market, we still need blockbuster movies like "It's Hot" and "Catch Me" to heat up the theaters.

I am still willing to look forward to it with you.

The next blockbuster masterpiece was released during this National Day holiday.