article | Rhino Entertainment, author｜Nan Rumin, editor｜Pu Fang
html officially ended in July, which means that the 2024 summer vacation is officially halfway through. In theory, more than half of it is actually over. Judging from the performance ofin July this year, the performance is actually relatively good, but this performance depends on who is compared with it. If compared with last year's overwhelming performance, there is still a huge gap. The problems faced by this summer season are obviously more severe, because the current market disadvantage is only one of them, and the lack of cards to play in August will be even more difficult. A sharp regression from last year is almost inevitable.
gained nearly 5.4 billion in July
(the market performance in July in recent years)
finally received nearly 5.4 billion in box office in July, with an average of 170 million+ in a single day. If compared with 2021 and 2022, there is obviously a very obvious improvement. , of course, due to the epidemic in those two years, the entire market had a special impact. If we extend further, we received 6.966 billion in July 2018 and 5.756 billion in 2019, both exceeding this year's performance.
In short, compared with normal years, July, the most important month of this summer, is obviously at a clear disadvantage. In the past few years, neither the entire economy nor the film market has achieved rapid improvement. The film market has even been in a downward trend. The performance in July this year once again proved that the film market is still in a state of decline. A stable state requires more blockbuster bailouts.
It cannot be said that the audience's viewing quality is declining, or other objective environmental factors such as the economy. After all, these factors have little impact on movies. The reason is actually just one point, especially compared with the hot last year, there is a lack of real seed players, a lack of dark horses with reputation and long-term success. This is the real reason for the huge gap with last year.
Thinking back to last year's summer season, it was an unprecedented feat, from " The Disappearance of Her " to " Octagonal Cage ", to the subsequent " Chang'an Thirty Thousand Miles ", and then to the subsequent "Feng Shen" , " all-or-nothing ", this relay-style series of hits keeps the entire summer season alive. So far, this summer's summer release is almost a one-man show in the comedy " ". This situation of independently supporting the market is naturally unable to compete with last year's multi-core driver. Therefore, there is a very obvious gap in the market.
There is a serious lack of head seeds
As mentioned before, July this year was seriously lower than expected. The biggest reason is the lack of head seeds, or to put it another way, the actual results of projects that are claimed to be head seeds are far less than expected. It does not achieve the effect of real seeds. At the same time last year, it was the time when the gods were fighting, and several high-standard seeds were fighting. Today's market performance can be said to be completely flat, and many stocks are facing the fate of falling off the street.
(Performance of various films in July)
Judging from the market performance in July this year, except for "Catch a Baby" which met the established expectations and received more than 2 billion, other films completely collapsed like a cliff. Fortunately, "Catch Me" can be released in time to turn the tide. The combination of Yan Fei, Peng Damo, Shen Teng, and Ma Li is indeed very powerful. The film is guaranteed to earn more than 3 billion, and it has a chance to hit the box office championship in 2024. But even so, the film did not exceed expectations. After all, 3 billion+ is the general expectation of the industry.
On the contrary, the suspense film " silently kills " became the only surprise in July, with performance exceeding expectations. The film will eventually be locked in the order of 1.4 billion, temporarily ranking sixth at the box office in 2024. As Ke Wenli's second film, the film's box office will eventually surpass "Manslaughter" and become the director's highest-grossing film. It was the film's overfulfillment of its tasks that made July seem less embarrassing.
The following projects are all projects that are not as good as expected, and they are all occupied by a number of Hollywood movies. This also proves how unbearable the performance of domestic films was in the entire July market.The world's most popular IP " Despicable Me 4" has been released in mainland China. The film's previous film has earned over 1 billion, but under the premise of a sharp decline in Hollywood, it cannot escape the fate of being cut in half. In the end, It will be locked in the order of 350 million.
Marvel’s new work “Deadpool and Wolverine” came to the rescue in time in July. Marvel has hit the market with many movies in a row, which is far different from the world's once arrogant IP. Now this new work can be regarded as a timely stop for Marvel to stop its decline. It is expected that the mainland will get 350 million in volume. The performance of Pixar's new work "Inside Out 2" exceeded expectations. It still received 160 million in July, but such a surprise is obviously not enough.
Many blockbusters have crashed in succession.
’s serious lack of top hits can still be attributed to the overall poor quality of the summer movies. In fact, looking at the film list, several films have very strong selling points, each with its own merits. Each style and feature has the potential to be a hit or even a big hit, but judging from the market results, the serious lack of quality has caused the market to collapse rapidly. Even the more popular IPs still cannot offset the poor quality.
(Many blockbusters were released in July)
Judging from the performance of these films in July, the reason why they were far worse than the same period last year has been found. These films are basically in the category of "bad films" in terms of box office and reputation. "There's a Canteen by the Clouds" adapted from the novel grossed 130 million+ in July. The final box office has not yet exceeded the 500 million mark. Douban only had a score of 5.1, which prevented the film from gaining market continuity, leading to a rapid trend. collapse.
Wu Ershan's much-anticipated summer blockbuster " Under the Stranger" is undoubtedly the biggest variable in the entire summer season. Last year's "Feng Shen" started low and went high, and finally became a summer hit and became a good story. , but this year’s “Under the Stranger” obviously failed to replicate the feat of last year’s “Fengshen”. The film has just exceeded the 100 million mark, and in the end it even missed the 200 million box office. It can be said that many of the missing shares in July were missing from "Under the Stranger".
Jackie Chan's " legend " also ushered in a huge collapse. In the end, the film only received 80 million at the box office, and Douban only scored 5.2 points. It can be said that after Jackie Chan suffered multiple box office failures in a row, this time "Legend" may be the straw that breaks the camel's back. This also indicates that the once powerful superstars such as Jackie Chan, Jet Li, and Chow Yun-fat will finally step down from the altar.
The subsequent Hong Kong film "Customs Front" also suffered a severe collapse. Douban just passed the test and only received 130 million at the box office. In July, it received more than 54 million. The loneliness of Hong Kong films is undoubtedly one of the reasons for the market decline. The high-anticipated romance film " Welcome to My Side " also fell short of expectations. Yu Shi's appeal was good, but the lack of text resulted in only 6.2 points on Douban, making the film quickly lose its competitiveness. The
market should not be a one-man show of "Catch the Baby". It must be like last year when a hundred flowers bloomed. Looking forward to more surprises in August.
