In order to win the votes of the cryptocurrency community, Trump worked hard. Trump stated at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference that if he could return to the White House, he would list Bitcoin as a U.S. strategic reserve asset, saying that the market value of Bitcoin would surpass gold in the future.
At the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee, the United States, US Republican presidential candidate Trump attended and delivered a keynote speech. Trump said:
"If elected, I will establish a strategic national Bitcoin reserve. . The government will retain 100% of the Bitcoins it owns. The government’s policy will be to use Bitcoin as a national strategic reserve.
Bitcoin’s market value has increased since its birth, and it has quickly become the ninth largest asset in the world. It will surpass silver and will surpass gold in the future. However, most people don’t know what it is now.”
It is understood that the US government has seized at least 215,000 Bitcoins since 2020.
During Trump’s speech, Bitcoin staged a V-shaped market, falling by US$1,200 in the short term, falling below the US$67,000 mark; by the end of the speech, it violently rose again.
Trump’s attitude towards Bitcoin has undergone a shocking reversal. .
During his tenure as president, Trump blasted cryptocurrencies, calling them a scam. In July 2019, Trump posted on Twitter: "I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. These cryptocurrencies are not real currencies, their prices often fluctuate wildly, and they are issued on the air. Lack of regulation Cryptocurrency assets may stimulate more illegal activities...”
The latest trends in social security funds are coming
As the semi-annual reports of listed companies are successively disclosed, the latest trends in social security funds have been exposed.
At the end of last year, the Social Security Fund released an annual report stating that the Social Security Fund’s cumulative investment income since its establishment was 1,657.554 billion yuan, with an average annual investment return rate of 7.66%. With less than 40% of equity assets, the social security fund can achieve such income results, which can be said to be quite impressive.
calculated based on published data that the social security fund’s cumulative return rate from 2014 to 2022 exceeded 80%. The Shanghai Stock Index rose only half of the former during the same period. In the A-share market during the same period (listed before 2014), only the proportion of companies rose by more than 80%. About 30%. Due to good investment results, the market is also paying close attention to the position trends of social security funds.
As of July 27 (because the semi-annual report disclosure of listed companies has not yet been completed, only partial data is currently available), the National Social Security Fund appeared in the top ten tradable shareholders of three stocks in the second quarter, with a total stock market value of 1.313 billion yuan.
Judging from the latest stock market value, as of July 27, the market values of Western Mining, Satellite Chemical, and Bomaike held by the Social Security Fund at the end of the second quarter were 959 million yuan, 298 million yuan, and 56 million yuan respectively.
(The content of this article is a list of objective data information and does not constitute any investment advice)
Judging from the latest position changes, the National Social Security Fund 115 Portfolio has increased its position in Western Mining for two consecutive quarters, adding 4 million shares in the second quarter. The latest holding There are 27 million shares; the National Social Security Fund 420 Portfolio increased its position by 2.15 million shares in the second quarter, and recently held 26.44 million shares of Western Mining.
National Social Security Fund 101 Portfolio added Satellite Chemical in the second quarter, with the latest holdings of 16.55 million shares.
National Social Security Fund 063 and 105 portfolios both reduced their holdings of Bomaike in the second quarter, with the latest holdings of 2.234 million shares and 2.041 million shares.
In addition, the latest shareholder information disclosed by listed companies due to buybacks and other matters shows that the social security fund newly entered companies such as Shanghai Airport in the second quarter.
The latest shareholder changes at Shanghai Airport show that as of July 22, the tenth largest shareholder, the National Social Security Fund 118 Combination, has added 10.4565 million shares to the company, holding a total of 10.4565 million shares, accounting for 0.42% of the outstanding shares. The market value is 373 million yuan.
The latest shareholder changes of Shengquan Group show that as of July 23, the tenth largest shareholder National Social Security Fund 107 Combination increased its holdings of 426,600 shares of the company's shares, holding a total of 7.0301 million shares, accounting for 0.83% of the outstanding shares. , with a market value of 128 million yuan.
Guanghui Energy’s latest shareholder changes show that as of July 22, the seventh largest shareholder, the National Social Security Fund 414 Combination, has added 61.9998 million shares to the company, holding a total of 61.9998 million shares, accounting for 0.94% of the outstanding shares. , with a market value of 354 million yuan. The latest shareholder changes of
Jinbo shares show that as of July 18, the eighth largest circulating shareholder Cathay Fund Management Co., Ltd.-Social Security Fund 421 combination increased its holdings of 422,200 shares of the company's shares, holding a total of 2,093,500 shares. Accounting for 1.02% of the outstanding shares, the market value is 34.4376 million yuan.
In the first quarter of this year, social security funds appeared in the top ten tradable shareholders of more than 800 listed companies, with a total market value of 426 billion yuan, a record high, an increase of 50.5 billion from 375.5 billion yuan at the end of the fourth quarter of last year.
The top ten largest holdings of social security funds in the first quarter are Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, PICC, Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway, Founder Securities, Guosen Securities, Hualu Hengsheng, Sany Heavy Industry, Sun Paper, and Chint Electric.
Historical statistics show that judging from the holding pattern of social security funds, the longer the holding period of social security funds, the more significant the excess returns. As of the end of the first quarter of this year, the average increase of 24 companies in which the Social Security Fund has been holding positions for more than 10 years has been nearly three times, and the Shanghai Composite Index has averaged an increase of about 20% during the same period; the average increase of 107 companies in which the Social Security Fund has been holding positions for 5-10 years has been more than 70%. , the Shanghai Composite Index rose by an average of 3.37% during the same period.
The banking sector has the largest increase in the first half of the year!
Public funds and northbound funds both added positions in the second quarter.
The banking sector, which continued to rise, suddenly fell. The China Securities Banking Index fell 3.11% this week, setting a record for the largest weekly decline in the year.
According to the news, on July 22, both 1ylpr and 5ylpr were reduced by 10bp.
On July 25, the six major state-owned banks of Industry, Agriculture, Bank of China, China Construction, Communications and Postal Savings Bank lowered their deposit interest rates. The current listed interest rate was reduced by 5bp, the listed deposit rate of 1 year and below was reduced by 10bp, and the listed deposit rate of 2 years and above was reduced by 10bp. The listed deposit interest rate was reduced by 20bp.
htmlOn July 26, China Merchants Bank and Ping An Bank followed up by lowering deposit interest rates.Industry insiders pointed out that after the LPR reduction and the expected reduction in bank deposit interest rates, bank stocks have experienced short-term shocks recently.
In the first half of this year, bank stocks rose by 17.02%, ranking first in the A-share industry's growth list.
From a financial perspective, in the second quarter of this year, both public funds and northbound funds increased their positions in bank stocks.
According to statistics from China Merchants Securities, the proportion of active partial stock public funds' heavy holdings in the banking sector accounted for 2.77% in the second quarter, a month-on-month increase of 0.31%. Judging from the absolute value of the market value of positions, the total market value of the banking sector that active partial stock funds held heavily at the end of the second quarter was 41.109 billion yuan, and it was 38.923 billion yuan at the end of the first quarter.
Judging from the net inflow of northbound funds, in the first half of this year, the net inflow of northbound funds into the banking sector was 33.715 billion yuan, among which the largest net inflows were China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.
Looking at ETFs, bank ETFs have performed strongly, rising by more than 20% this year. As of July 26, more than 4.2 billion funds had flowed out of bank-themed etf during the year. Among them, bank ETF E Fund received a net inflow of 796 million, making it the only bank ETF that had inflows during the year.
Regarding the banking sector, Huafu Securities said that there are three driving factors for the banking sector this year: first, the spread of dividend rate stock selection logic within the sector, and the spread of high dividend strategies from state-owned banks to small and medium-sized banks; second, real estate policy The third is the market's expectation that the downward slope of banks' net interest margins will slow down and that fundamentals will bottom out; looking to the future, the banking sector will need to test more the effects of previous policies and the trend of future fundamentals.
The United States did a $800 billion QE in disguise?
Yellen firmly denies manipulating U.S. Treasury bonds
Dr. Roubini, who accurately predicted the outbreak of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis 18 years ago, revealed in a paper he co-authored that the U.S. Treasury Department manipulated the issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds to reduce the actual borrowing costs of the social economy. and interest rates. Subsequently, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen firmly denied manipulating the national debt.
Although the Federal Reserve has continued to tighten and raise interest rates in the past, this paper titled "Aggressive Treasury Issuance and Monetary Policy Wrestling" gives a very contrasting view: the U.S. Treasury Department has achieved "invisible quantification" through aggressive bond issuance (ati) "Easy (qe)" function. Data in the
paper shows that in the past year, the issuance of treasury bonds (aggressive bond issuance) by the U.S. Treasury has created a medium- and long-term coupon debt gap of more than 800 billion U.S. dollars, with an effect equivalent to a 1% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. In other words, this almost offsets all the rate hikes last year.
In layman's terms, Although the Federal Reserve has continued to raise interest rates to high interest rates in the past and continuously harvested global currency interest differentials, the U.S. Treasury Department has actually done $800 billion in QE to pay off debts in disguise, which is equivalent to four interest rate cuts.
The paper points out that Aggressive debt issuance (ati) is actually a kind of invisible quantitative easing, but it is not implemented by the Federal Reserve, but by the Treasury Department: The Treasury Department increases the supply of short-term Treasury bonds while reducing the supply of long-term Treasury bonds. , thereby lowering the yield on long-term Treasury bonds. This also explains why inflation remains sticky in a high interest rate environment.
Roubini said that the Fed's policy should be independent and that we should not interfere with what the Fed is doing through fiscal policy. The
paper also mentioned three risks at the end.
First, the risk of ATI is that it is dominated by the Ministry of Finance, which means that the independence of monetary policy is diluted and is more affected by political cycles, making it more likely to cause long-term economic consequences.
Second, as the government deficit continues to expand, if ati becomes a regular policy tool, it may lead to market dependence, which will have a destabilizing impact on the economy and ultimately lead to a situation where high inflation and high interest rates coexist for a long time.
Third, whether the Democratic Party or the Republican Party is in power, both are facing the problem of fiscal deficit. The Ministry of Finance will have to make a choice: continue ATI and maintain control of long-term interest rates; cancel ATI and risk squeezing economic growth.
On the sidelines of the G20 Finance Ministers’ meeting in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Friday, July 26, local time, Yellen responded and firmly denied manipulating the U.S. debt market.
Yellen said that Roubini’s paper released on Friday proposed “a strategy aimed at easing financial conditions.” “I can 100% guarantee you that this strategy does not exist. We (the U.S. Treasury Department) Nothing like this was ever discussed.
