The property market has its ups and downs, and the data is true and false.
Since the beginning of this year, Shanghai’s real estate market has experienced a significant decline in transaction volume. According to authoritative monitoring data from Youwei Real Estate Research Center, in the first half of 2024, Shanghai’s new home transaction volume totaled 26,317 units, and the total transaction area was approximately 3.23 million square meters. , a year-on-year decrease of up to 37%.
However, in the public eye, we often see hot-selling posters and good transaction reports released by major real estate projects. This makes people wonder: What is the actual sales situation of ? Which properties are the real hot-sellers? What are the possible exaggerations? Which properties are facing sales pressure?
Although visual information is often misleading, the authenticity of data as an objective measure cannot be ignored. To this end, we have recently conducted statistics and analysis on Shanghai's online signing data of real estate openings in the first half of 2024, and let the data speak for itself. [See related tables at the end of the article]
part.1
Which properties are the real hot-selling projects?
Although the overall popularity of the current real estate market has declined compared to the past, it is worth paying special attention that in the first half of this year, a number of high-profile popular real estate projects still emerged in the Shanghai market. They have both high subscription rates and online signing rates. Demonstrate excellence.
According to incomplete statistics from ifeng.com Real Estate Shanghai website, among the 133 projects launched in the first half of the year (including repeatedly launched projects), 17 projects achieved an online signing rate of up to 100%, and another 12 real estate projects achieved an online signing rate of 100%. The acceptance rate is also over 90%.
What is particularly worth mentioning is that among these properties, many have been promoted several times and have been successfully liquidated. For example, Central Jinmao Mansion and Central Land Center Runfu in Baoshan District As well as Zhonghaishunchangjiuli and other projects in Huangpu District all performed well.
Among them, Central Jinmao Mansion in Baoshan District was launched for the first time on March 22 this year, with 266 units launched, and all projects were sold out on the opening day. So far, 253 units have been signed online for this project, with the online signing rate as high as 95.1%.
On June 27 this year, the project launched another 164 units, and they were sold out again on the opening day. Currently, all 164 units have completed online signing, and the online signing rate has reached 100%.
It is worth mentioning that there are still some properties, although the subscription rate is relatively low, the online signing results are still impressive, including Guanchen Runfu, Vanke Overseas Image, Gemdale Fengsheng Road, Xiangyu Yuanxiang Lakeside , etc. project.
Taking Guanchen Run Mansion as an example, this project launched three housing listings in the first half of this year. First of all, the first launch was held on February 27, with 178 units launched. The subscription rate reached 43.3%, and the current online signing rate is as high as 92.7%.
Subsequently, on April 26, the project launched another 130 units, with the subscription rate increasing to 51.5% and the online signing rate being 87.5%. Finally, on May 29, the project further promoted 64 units. This time there was no lottery process, and the current online signing rate is stable at 78.1%.
part.2
Which properties are “fake” red properties?
If you only look at the opening results proactively released by developers, most of the properties are "hot sales." But in fact, the sales data promoted by some real estate posters in Shanghai are quite different from the real market conditions. The part seriously deviates from the actual situation, and the gap is even as much as double that of .
Take the Guomao Luyuan project as an example. The project was officially launched in the Sheshan section of Songjiang District on June 14 this year. A total of 359 houses ranging from 62 to 96 square meters were launched. The average registered price was 47,000 yuan/㎡. , the average total price of each house is about 4.2 million yuan.
The day after the opening of the market, the official public account of Guomao Real Estate Shanghai Company released information saying, "The four batches of new properties in Guomao Luyuan are hotly promoted. The whole city is eager to get them. The hot record of collecting 200 million yuan has once again ignited Sheshan."
However, after further verification, as of July 11, only 10 units of this batch of properties had actually completed online signing. If the average total project price of 4.2 million yuan is used as a reference, the total value of these 10 properties is approximately 42 million yuan.There is a significant gap between this figure and the 200 million yuan in sales initially claimed by the developer.
In fact, the "false red plate" phenomenon that appeared in the first half of the year is not limited to Guomao Luyuan, such cases are quite common.
On June 2 this year, a project in Qingpu was officially launched, with a total of 267 housing units, but only 54 groups of buyers participated in the lottery. According to the latest online real estate data, has so far sold only 16 houses in this project, and the online signing rate is about 5.99%.
Let’s look at the Changping Yun’an project. It opened on June 24 this year and launched 481 houses with a construction area of approximately 87-326 square meters. According to relevant reports, 385 units were sold on the opening day, with a sell-through rate as high as "80%." However, according to the latest statistics on July 11, the actual number of houses sold in the project is only 344, and the corresponding online signing rate is about 69%.
In addition, the Yingcuifu project has also attracted market attention. On June 9 this year, Shanghai Jiajia Real Estate officially announced that after the new policy was released, more than 730 groups of customers visited the Yingcuifu project within a week, and 46 units were sold. The highest number of transactions in a single day reached 12 units, with sales of up to 260 million yuan. .
However, according to Shanghai online real estate statistics, throughout June, only 31 properties were signed online for the Yingcui Mansion project. Since July, only 14 properties have been signed online so far.
Especially the latest batch of properties launched in May, more than a month since its launch, only 7 properties have been signed online, and the online signing rate is only 3%.
part.3
Which real estate properties are suffering?
The same market, different fates. Those properties that originally performed well in the market still have strong sales, while those that originally had difficulty selling are facing more severe sales challenges.
According to statistics from ifeng.com Real Estate Shanghai Station, as of now, among the real estate projects launched in the first half of 2024, has nearly 37 projects with an online approval rate lower than 20%, and among them, has 19 projects with an online approval rate of number of digits.
The Middle East No. 1 project ranks at the bottom of the online signing rate ranking. According to public data from online real estate, although it has been nearly two months since the project was launched, the online signing record is still zero.
Donglai No. 1 project is located in Wanxiang Town, Lingang New Area, Pudong. When the project first opened, in order to attract home buyers, it had actively adjusted its sales strategy and lowered the average sales price to 27,900 yuan/square meter, which was higher than originally planned. The joint price of real estate and land was 29,400 yuan/square meter, which was reduced by 1,500 yuan/square meter. Additional home decoration gift packages were provided, and channel distribution business was launched.
However, market feedback has not achieved the expected results. According to the official WeChat data of the project, among the 260 properties launched at the first launch, only 2 groups of valid subscription intentions were received during the subscription period, and the subscription rate was only about 1%.
The second lowest online signing rate is China Railway Nord Jingchen . This project is located in the 105 section of Lingang New Area. It opened on May 18 this year and launched a new batch of houses, a total of 327 units. The house types are about 89-129 square meters in built-up area, and the average registered price is 30,000 yuan/square meter. So far, only one unit of this batch of houses in the project has been signed online, and the online signing rate is 0.3%.
The third-lowest online signing rate is Dahua Wutongyue . This project is located in the Anting section of Jiading. On April 29 this year, a new batch of housing units was launched, with a total of 355 units. The main unit type has a built-up area of approximately For houses ranging from 91 to 150 square meters, the average registered price is 41,166 yuan/square meter. As of now, only 4 houses in this batch of the project have been signed online, with an online signing rate of 1.1%.
In addition to the above projects, there are also Zhonghe Jiayuan, Gemdale Jiafenghui, Xingshang Guanlan Sega, New Hongqiao Capital, Fengfa Xianhui Yuedi, Fengfa Right Bank Jingdi, Huafang Tangyue , etc. The online signing rates of many real estate projects are also in the single digits. These real estate projects include both old projects that have been on the market and newly launched projects.
*Special note: All data of
comes from "Online Real Estate", and the statistical time is 2024/7/10-13; the information about the sectors of the projects in the
picture refer to the "Online Real Estate" sector information;
online signing data does not represent Actual real estate sales will lag due to factors such as the contract signing period of each project;
due to the huge data and manual statistics, it is inevitable that there will be omissions and errors in the statistics. If you find any omissions, errors and other data, please feel free to send us a private message in the background.
